Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2026, 11:01:47 PM
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With one year to go. Ruto enjoys a huge lead of 50%, winning 31 of 47 counties.
Sifuna has taken off 10% from the UDA-ODM juggernaut of 60% plus.
We watch if Sifuna numbers will hold - they are volatile now but definitely there is a mini euphoria in luhyland which might hold.
Opposition has a squaring-of-circles problem - if Gachagua doesnt run the kikuyus are only group sufficiently angry enough to vote any candidate
but turnout will drop slightly.
Kambas are most likely to break off - if Kalonzo is not candidate. Sifuna could probably maintain 3/4 of his support base as DPORK to Kalonzo but not Gathietha.
DCP, looking at their numbers, will not accept anything less than PORK or DPORK. Likely to go for PORK and eye for 2032? Can DCP sacrifice for say Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket that will give us a close election?
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Key dates with exactly one year to elections.
Public officers resign by Feb 9;
Party primaries conclude by May 9;
Campaigns and nominations begin May 29;
Nominations close June 9;
Campaigns end Aug 7;
Kenyans go to the polls on Aug 10, 2027.
Another key date to watch is the Judiciary on Gachagua's impeachment - we have a pending appeal at COA, but we know either side will appeal.
Most important is the Supreme Court advisory sought by the Meru governor, which affects Gachagua - on whether an impeached person is eligible to run or not.
Other key dates - AFCON will happen in June/July - with the final on 17th July - just 3 weeks to the election!
Other key events to watch.
Economically & Development wise
Positive -Dangote to start refinery this year & Mau summit-Nakuru-Rironi highway completion
Negative - Ruto will be scared of the drough/low season with maize yield looking terrible this year - Unga index is key in the election.
Exogenous risk - Iran wars with the US and its impact on oil - petrol/disiel price is key index in an election
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These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
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First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
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When I run the maths for Ruto, 48% to 49% is where I get for most scenarios, which is fine for the incumbent one year to election, but it is also the exact danger zone—sitting a hair short of 50%+1 guarantees a brutal runoff, which is the last thing Ruto wants.
Here is how I look at Ruto's play, the register math, the Kindiki problem, and that messy western front:
1. The Voter Registration Math
My conservative take is that we pull in another 1 million, but realistically, with aggressive mobilization, you could easily see 2 to 3 million new voters added, pushing the total register to around 26-27 million.
The state machinery has the administrative muscle to push this through, but Ruto has to direct where those numbers land. If the state drives registration primarily through his strongholds and targeted swing zones, that influx cushions his baseline. If he leaves it to chance, a disgruntled urban youth population might register just to protest.
2. What to Do with Kindiki and That 3%
Dropping Kindiki or risking Murima politics clipping him is political suicide because it drags Ruto straight down to 48%. He has a few ways to handle this:
Option A: Keep Kindiki locked in as the steady administrative anchor to claw back whatever he can from Gachagua's. Even if the mountain is angry, having a non-flashy local anchor stops total erosion.
Option B: If the center is completely lost to Gachagua's independent momentum, Ruto can't afford to drop Kindiki unless he replaces him with an equivalent heavyweight who brings an entirely different regional basket—otherwise, that 3% vanishes.
3. The Luhya Headache & Fractured ODM
Western is a total migraine right now for Ruto. You have Mudavadi, Wetang'ula, regional governors, and Oparanya all stepping on each other's toes while Sifuna & DCP crew has excited Luhyas with a presidential run that will fizzle out late in the game.
If he locks down the new register growth, keeps Kindiki's 3% from evaporating, and cuts up the Luhya vote so it doesn't consolidate elsewhere, that 48% floor holds and creeps over the line.
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2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
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Just looking at you figures you remind me of 2002 elections .
The biggest Mistake Moi did was thinking Uhuru would inherit his votes.
Same fallacy Pundit is thinking . Automatically Raila former regions will support Ruto.
For more than 2 decades Moi had fought GEMA and created a coalition against GEMA then he thought by choising Uhuru he will wipe out this . GEMA refused to board and the other tribes felt betrayed and chose Kibaki as a better option .
Come 2027 Ruto has fought Raila for 20 years then he thinks he can get his voter base . Thats a whole generation meaning if you were being born in 2008 when Ruto was fighting Raila in 2027 you will elegible to vote same as happened in 2002 majority will refuse to board .
Now he created 2 Monsters Gachagua and Sifuna .
I said since 2022 Gachagua has never been interested of Being a President and there will emerge a new leader . You never listened . How did I know , because we are in the thick of things .
Im going to tell you even if 2 opposition camps emerge Ruto is still going to be No 3 . At most he will gather 27% of the votes
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Those are minor mistakes here and there that dont affect anything - infact I asked Claude to do those changes.
Get your own excel and make those mistake - I can share mine
You can play around it
I have attached it - no need to make lot of noise over ethnic maths.
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
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Okay. See you in next year on election day.
In meantime ODM-UDA MPs, MCAs, Governors and Senators begin 3-day conclave in Naivasha. Ruto is nailing serious pact while opposition are still arguing like small kids
If ODM was to quit GOK - it now - they have 3 months before Nomination start in Jan - March.
I think you're trying to re-invent 2002 with desperation that is almost clinically madness.
Just looking at you figures you remind me of 2002 elections .
The biggest Mistake Moi did was thinking Uhuru would inherit his votes.
Same fallacy Pundit is thinking . Automatically Raila former regions will support Ruto.
For more than 2 decades Moi had fought GEMA and created a coalition against GEMA then he thought by choising Uhuru he will wipe out this . GEMA refused to board and the other tribes felt betrayed and chose Kibaki as a better option .
Come 2027 Ruto has fought Raila for 20 years then he thinks he can get his voter base . Thats a whole generation meaning if you were being born in 2008 when Ruto was fighting Raila in 2027 you will elegible to vote same as happened in 2002 majority will refuse to board .
Now he created 2 Monsters Gachagua and Sifuna .
I said since 2022 Gachagua has never been interested of Being a President and there will emerge a new leader . You never listened . How did I know , because we are in the thick of things .
Im going to tell you even if 2 opposition camps emerge Ruto is still going to be No 3 . At most he will gather 27% of the votes
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Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
3) Turnout in Luhyaland (Kakamega/Busia/Bungoma/Vihiga) will drop from 63% in 2022 (when Luhyas had no prez/DP candidate) to 52% in 2027 when Sifuna excitement will be a prez candidate in your spreadsheet.
Another obvious bias - depress turnout where WSR is having challenges. Just the same maths that Moi was doing in 92 and 97 - whereas Moi was using tribal clashes to suppress voter turnouts, RVPundit is using spreadsheets.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
My thinking of Luo Nyanza is in my maths.
1) Though historically they turn up in good numbers - Luos - will drop by 5-10% - as Raila wont be in ballot. They are emotional voters though so dont expect they can sit through this. But we can go to 2002 to see how they voted when Raila dropped out for clues.
2) I expect Ruto to get 85% of Luo Nyanza - Sifuna or even Kalonzo 10%.
What I know SIASA when it start PROPER WILL BE VERY TOXIC AND TRIBAL - it will be LUO Vs KIKUYU WAR - KALENJIN versus KIKUYU WAR - and this how you end up with 98% of people voting one way or another.
So when I am modelling - I am factoring what August 2027 will look like - when politics will be existential tribal warfare almost.
For now there is still a lot of GEN Z type tribeless noise - come next year - the TRIBAL EMOTIONS will have been ratched up to 100% - and politicians will be saying crazy stuff.
Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Actually coz I struggle to model turnout every time - this year I didnt even attempt it :)
I got 2022 turnout.
And I asked AI to model it to drop based on historical knowledge that turnout will drop due mostly old register.
I only asked AI to keep Murima and Kalenjin turnout at same level of 2022- both seem to take the stake of the next election more seriously.
Sifuna is baloon we dont know how it will end - in my view its already deflating - it simply has no serious buy in.
We dont even know if Sifuna or Kalonzo will run - so we will have to final MOASS in those last months.
This is ROUGH MOASS released one year to election - and you're having a MEAL over 60K votes :) against incumbent who can rig that in NEP
3) Turnout in Luhyaland (Kakamega/Busia/Bungoma/Vihiga) will drop from 63% in 2022 (when Luhyas had no prez/DP candidate) to 52% in 2027 when Sifuna excitement will be a prez candidate in your spreadsheet.
Another obvious bias - depress turnout where WSR is having challenges. Just the same maths that Moi was doing in 92 and 97 - whereas Moi was using tribal clashes to suppress voter turnouts, RVPundit is using spreadsheets.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Pundit what you have not come to terms with is that there is a generational transition of poltics .
Same as 2002 Moi was exiting the stage . Raila exited the stage .
Meaning there political structure changes significantly . Something you also didnt see in 2002 while others saw.
Same as 2002 with Moi exit in 2027 the new generation want the likes of Ruto who they have been seeing since 2008 fighting it out with Raila to go out , Thats why you see Sifuna Euphoria equated as Euphoria in 2002.
I come from Coast and I can tell you Ruto is not loved in that part of Kenya Raila was loved and Ruto is not Raila . Even in the Mombasa you are giving Ruto that much of votes he will get less than last time .
Ruto has no single formula to path of victory , he will make more blunders as we approach the general elections . I can sure bet he will drop Kindiki and put Luhya to try even numbers that will make the 40 % Luo and the 20% Meru more angry and will further reduce his voters basket.
One thing you got out of this is even Gachagua doesnt get Presidential candidate or DP candidate due to anger just like Luos in 2002 and Kalenjins in 2007 they will still come out to vote out Ruto in droves . That plays out for opposition and they can attract other regions .
Okay. See you in next year on election day.
In meantime ODM-UDA MPs, MCAs, Governors and Senators begin 3-day conclave in Naivasha. Ruto is nailing serious pact while opposition are still arguing like small kids
If ODM was to quit GOK - it now - they have 3 months before Nomination start in Jan - March.
I think you're trying to re-invent 2002 with desperation that is almost clinically madness.
Just looking at you figures you remind me of 2002 elections .
The biggest Mistake Moi did was thinking Uhuru would inherit his votes.
Same fallacy Pundit is thinking . Automatically Raila former regions will support Ruto.
For more than 2 decades Moi had fought GEMA and created a coalition against GEMA then he thought by choising Uhuru he will wipe out this . GEMA refused to board and the other tribes felt betrayed and chose Kibaki as a better option .
Come 2027 Ruto has fought Raila for 20 years then he thinks he can get his voter base . Thats a whole generation meaning if you were being born in 2008 when Ruto was fighting Raila in 2027 you will elegible to vote same as happened in 2002 majority will refuse to board .
Now he created 2 Monsters Gachagua and Sifuna .
I said since 2022 Gachagua has never been interested of Being a President and there will emerge a new leader . You never listened . How did I know , because we are in the thick of things .
Im going to tell you even if 2 opposition camps emerge Ruto is still going to be No 3 . At most he will gather 27% of the votes
-
Raila 2002 is Gachagua 2027 , Moi betrayed Raila Luos were angry and they came out in droves .
You cant use their percentage aggregation in 2002 as a mirror to 2027 . Raila is gone for the first time since 2007 for 20 years they dont have a presiential candidate , Ruto fought their leader for 20 years and you still think they will vote for Ruto better than they did for Raila , who is clinically Mad ? For avoidance of doubt even in 2022 Raila got only 68% of total voters registered in Luo Nyanza counties, how will Ruto get 85% ?
My thinking of Luo Nyanza is in my maths.
1) Though historically they turn up in good numbers - Luos - will drop by 5-10% - as Raila wont be in ballot. They are emotional voters though so dont expect they can sit through this. But we can go to 2002 to see how they voted when Raila dropped out for clues.
2) I expect Ruto to get 85% of Luo Nyanza - Sifuna or even Kalonzo 10%.
What I know SIASA when it start PROPER WILL BE VERY TOXIC AND TRIBAL - it will be LUO Vs KIKUYU WAR - KALENJIN versus KIKUYU WAR - and this how you end up with 98% of people voting one way or another.
So when I am modelling - I am factoring what August 2027 will look like - when politics will be existential tribal warfare almost.
For now there is still a lot of GEN Z type tribeless noise - come next year - the TRIBAL EMOTIONS will have been ratched up to 100% - and politicians will be saying crazy stuff.
Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Yet we have an opinion poll that's not more than a month old (TIFA July 2026) that shows ODM supporters leaning 75% to Linda Mwananchi (Sifuna/Orengo) and 25% to Linda Ground (Oburu/WSR).
Make that make sense.
My thinking of Luo Nyanza is in my maths.
1) Though historically they turn up in good numbers - Luos - will drop by 5-10% - as Raila wont be in ballot. They are emotional voters though so dont expect they can sit through this. But we can go to 2002 to see how they voted when Raila dropped out for clues.
2) I expect Ruto to get 85% of Luo Nyanza - Sifuna or even Kalonzo 10%.
What I know SIASA when it start PROPER WILL BE VERY TOXIC AND TRIBAL - it will be LUO Vs KIKUYU WAR - KALENJIN versus KIKUYU WAR - and this how you end up with 98% of people voting one way or another.
So when I am modelling - I am factoring what August 2027 will look like - when politics will be existential tribal warfare almost.
For now there is still a lot of GEN Z type tribeless noise - come next year - the TRIBAL EMOTIONS will have been ratched up to 100% - and politicians will be saying crazy stuff.
Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Kalonzo today has shared my opinion on these Sifuna opinion polls - PAID for by Kenyattas and NIS.
And principally we do MOASS because we dont believe in Opinion polls.
If you believe in opinion polls - log off.
And we meet in 2027.
I have been doing this MOASS since 2005
Opinion polls I am waiting to read ni wale jamaa wa Mizani Africa - they are only one I lately think they are good.
Yet we have an opinion poll that's not more than a month old (TIFA July 2026) that shows ODM supporters leaning 75% to Linda Mwananchi (Sifuna/Orengo) and 25% to Linda Ground (Oburu/WSR).
Make that make sense.
-
Mathare is opened. Check yourself in.
Raila 2002 is Gachagua 2027 , Moi betrayed Raila Luos were angry and they came out in droves .
You cant use their percentage aggregation in 2002 as a mirror to 2027 . Raila is gone for the first time since 2007 for 20 years they dont have a presiential candidate , Ruto fought their leader for 20 years and you still think they will vote for Ruto better than they did for Raila , who is clinically Mad ? For avoidance of doubt even in 2022 Raila got only 68% of total voters registered in Luo Nyanza counties, how will Ruto get 85% ?
My thinking of Luo Nyanza is in my maths.
1) Though historically they turn up in good numbers - Luos - will drop by 5-10% - as Raila wont be in ballot. They are emotional voters though so dont expect they can sit through this. But we can go to 2002 to see how they voted when Raila dropped out for clues.
2) I expect Ruto to get 85% of Luo Nyanza - Sifuna or even Kalonzo 10%.
What I know SIASA when it start PROPER WILL BE VERY TOXIC AND TRIBAL - it will be LUO Vs KIKUYU WAR - KALENJIN versus KIKUYU WAR - and this how you end up with 98% of people voting one way or another.
So when I am modelling - I am factoring what August 2027 will look like - when politics will be existential tribal warfare almost.
For now there is still a lot of GEN Z type tribeless noise - come next year - the TRIBAL EMOTIONS will have been ratched up to 100% - and politicians will be saying crazy stuff.
Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Mathare patient literring my MOASS thread with nonsense. I have been doing politics since 1990s as teenager. I started reading about kenya siasa in 1992. Been modelling tribal maths since 2005.
Sasa wewe MJINGA utanifundisha kazi.
Fck off and do you own MOASS
Pundit what you have not come to terms with is that there is a generational transition of poltics .
Same as 2002 Moi was exiting the stage . Raila exited the stage .
Meaning there political structure changes significantly . Something you also didnt see in 2002 while others saw.
Same as 2002 with Moi exit in 2027 the new generation want the likes of Ruto who they have been seeing since 2008 fighting it out with Raila to go out , Thats why you see Sifuna Euphoria equated as Euphoria in 2002.
I come from Coast and I can tell you Ruto is not loved in that part of Kenya Raila was loved and Ruto is not Raila . Even in the Mombasa you are giving Ruto that much of votes he will get less than last time .
Ruto has no single formula to path of victory , he will make more blunders as we approach the general elections . I can sure bet he will drop Kindiki and put Luhya to try even numbers that will make the 40 % Luo and the 20% Meru more angry and will further reduce his voters basket.
One thing you got out of this is even Gachagua doesnt get Presidential candidate or DP candidate due to anger just like Luos in 2002 and Kalenjins in 2007 they will still come out to vote out Ruto in droves . That plays out for opposition and they can attract other regions .
Okay. See you in next year on election day.
In meantime ODM-UDA MPs, MCAs, Governors and Senators begin 3-day conclave in Naivasha. Ruto is nailing serious pact while opposition are still arguing like small kids
If ODM was to quit GOK - it now - they have 3 months before Nomination start in Jan - March.
I think you're trying to re-invent 2002 with desperation that is almost clinically madness.
Just looking at you figures you remind me of 2002 elections .
The biggest Mistake Moi did was thinking Uhuru would inherit his votes.
Same fallacy Pundit is thinking . Automatically Raila former regions will support Ruto.
For more than 2 decades Moi had fought GEMA and created a coalition against GEMA then he thought by choising Uhuru he will wipe out this . GEMA refused to board and the other tribes felt betrayed and chose Kibaki as a better option .
Come 2027 Ruto has fought Raila for 20 years then he thinks he can get his voter base . Thats a whole generation meaning if you were being born in 2008 when Ruto was fighting Raila in 2027 you will elegible to vote same as happened in 2002 majority will refuse to board .
Now he created 2 Monsters Gachagua and Sifuna .
I said since 2022 Gachagua has never been interested of Being a President and there will emerge a new leader . You never listened . How did I know , because we are in the thick of things .
Im going to tell you even if 2 opposition camps emerge Ruto is still going to be No 3 . At most he will gather 27% of the votes
-
And you are normal , talking of Ruto is Africas President aka Meles Zenawi , Ruto will rule forever , when we were telling you he is making economic mistakes left and right only for June 2024 to happen .
Just Like Moi was defeated in 2002 even with hubris and chest thumping , Ruto will be defeated in 2027
Mathare is opened. Check yourself in.
Raila 2002 is Gachagua 2027 , Moi betrayed Raila Luos were angry and they came out in droves .
You cant use their percentage aggregation in 2002 as a mirror to 2027 . Raila is gone for the first time since 2007 for 20 years they dont have a presiential candidate , Ruto fought their leader for 20 years and you still think they will vote for Ruto better than they did for Raila , who is clinically Mad ? For avoidance of doubt even in 2022 Raila got only 68% of total voters registered in Luo Nyanza counties, how will Ruto get 85% ?
My thinking of Luo Nyanza is in my maths.
1) Though historically they turn up in good numbers - Luos - will drop by 5-10% - as Raila wont be in ballot. They are emotional voters though so dont expect they can sit through this. But we can go to 2002 to see how they voted when Raila dropped out for clues.
2) I expect Ruto to get 85% of Luo Nyanza - Sifuna or even Kalonzo 10%.
What I know SIASA when it start PROPER WILL BE VERY TOXIC AND TRIBAL - it will be LUO Vs KIKUYU WAR - KALENJIN versus KIKUYU WAR - and this how you end up with 98% of people voting one way or another.
So when I am modelling - I am factoring what August 2027 will look like - when politics will be existential tribal warfare almost.
For now there is still a lot of GEN Z type tribeless noise - come next year - the TRIBAL EMOTIONS will have been ratched up to 100% - and politicians will be saying crazy stuff.
Why are you so concerned with his skewed analysis.
according to his logic Luos love Ruto more than Raila .
If joining hands with Uhuru dented voter outcome by 10% and atleast They tried to pacify the handshake for 5 years and Raila was alive and vied in 2022 . According to Pundit it doesn't matter Broadbased was not that popular as handshake , Raila passed on so no pacification happened and he will not vie . But Pundit thinks Ruto will bring out more people and all people will vote for Ruto . The same Ruto who was a contributing factor in making sure Raila lost 2013,2017 and 2022 .
Sorry it doesnt work out like that …..
2) So by your logic:
- turnout in Ukambani will drop by 10% points (from 61% in 2022 when Kambas had no Prez or DP candidate) to 51% in 2027 when they have a presidential candidate,
while,
- turnout in Luo Nyanza (Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya) will drop by 6% points (from 72% when Luos had a presidential candidate) to 66% in 2027 when they have no Prez or DP candidate.
Obvious biases in an attempt to shore up WSR numbers.
First off, baseline turnout is going to drop heavily nationwide. We are running on an old, unpurged register packed with dead voters, people who have migrated abroad, and massive internal urban shifts. Because of that, most of the country is going to see depressed participation.
The only exceptions where turnout holds firm are the Rift Valley—driven by massive Kalenjin mobilization to keep Ruto in power—and Mt. Kenya, which is locked in because people are deeply angry and aggrieved.
Luo Nyanza will likely see a 10% drop to match national turnout unless Ruto picks Ida or Oburu odinga - which seem a possibility
Now look at how the regional chess pieces move:
The Ukambani Matrix: If Kalonzo runs a lonely race without nailing a serious coalition or securing meaningful Kikuyu backing, Ukambani turnout is going to tank. In that scenario, Ruto easily picks up 10% to 20% of the ground there. But if Kalonzo manages to pull off a serious grand coalition backed by the center, Ukambani turnout surges by 20%, and Ruto's 10% to 20% in Ukambani completely evaporates.
If Kaloi eventually cuts a deal and shifts to Ruto to replace Kindiki 3%, he only brings about 8% to 9% with him anyway, moving Ruto to about 56%!
If Gachagua is insisting on running his own lane, and he's easily pulling 22% to 25% out of pure Murima anger.
If Matiang'i shifts to Ruto, he brings a modest 3% to 5%; Matiang'i numbers are similar to Kindiki, not really enough to win DPORK; Matiangi Gusii will just go into 30-40:60-70% based on where Matiang'i eventually ends - which is maDVD PM like fake post.
Meanwhile, look at Sifuna—he continues to flatline and collapse. Half of his 10-12% is bleeding out fast, and the chief beneficiaries aren't even the opposition; it's Ruto and the ODM-UDA team (MDVD, Weta, the governors, Oparanya) who are eating into that space.
The DP / Kindiki Factor: There is also the glaring question of whether Ruto keeps Kindiki. Right now, Kindiki contributes roughly 3% to Ruto's core basket. If he gets knocked out or sidelined, Ruto's numbers drop straight down to around 48%. The moment that happens, he has to start hawking the DP position to anyone—even cutting deals with figures like Sifuna—just to survive.
Conclusion:
There are a million assumptions here, but the structural reality is clear. The Kalenjin are turning out massively, Kikuyus are furious and locked in, and the rest of the country's turnout is dropping off a 5-10% because of the dead register.
Overall, I don't expect much changes - I am going to watch Sifuna brigade more - Western now is the battleground. Kindiki is also trying to maximize that 5% of Murima West - but I don't see how he closes that gap -4% is the upper limit, and he only keeps the seat because ODM remain fractious.
These are your maths, that show WSR winning BIGLY ("with a huge margin") of 66k votes and 50.1% of the votes.
Let's debunk this outright bullshit - see RVPundit's maths attached.
1) Ukambani in 2022 had 61% turnout. This spreadshit shows Ukambani with 51% turnout - deliberately so as to depress the opposition turnout.
Correcting that turnout to 61% totally wipes out that 66k votes lead and flips the election with WSR submerging under 50%.
And that's without changing any other obvious biases that I will point out later
Spreadshit at its best.
-
Moi had been in politics his whole life leave about reading and he was defeated in 2002 . You think this exell sheet and fake figures will excite anyone . You are wrong in assumption that Ruto is the new Raila , Sifuna has inherited majority of that votes . Ruto perfomed even worse than Uhuru in North Eastern and some parts of Coast why do think he now has inherited Raila base there where as he has been fighting him for the last 20 years ……
Mathare patient literring my MOASS thread with nonsense. I have been doing politics since 1990s as teenager. I started reading about kenya siasa in 1992. Been modelling tribal maths since 2005.
Sasa wewe MJINGA utanifundisha kazi.
Fck off and do you own MOASS
Pundit what you have not come to terms with is that there is a generational transition of poltics .
Same as 2002 Moi was exiting the stage . Raila exited the stage .
Meaning there political structure changes significantly . Something you also didnt see in 2002 while others saw.
Same as 2002 with Moi exit in 2027 the new generation want the likes of Ruto who they have been seeing since 2008 fighting it out with Raila to go out , Thats why you see Sifuna Euphoria equated as Euphoria in 2002.
I come from Coast and I can tell you Ruto is not loved in that part of Kenya Raila was loved and Ruto is not Raila . Even in the Mombasa you are giving Ruto that much of votes he will get less than last time .
Ruto has no single formula to path of victory , he will make more blunders as we approach the general elections . I can sure bet he will drop Kindiki and put Luhya to try even numbers that will make the 40 % Luo and the 20% Meru more angry and will further reduce his voters basket.
One thing you got out of this is even Gachagua doesnt get Presidential candidate or DP candidate due to anger just like Luos in 2002 and Kalenjins in 2007 they will still come out to vote out Ruto in droves . That plays out for opposition and they can attract other regions .
Okay. See you in next year on election day.
In meantime ODM-UDA MPs, MCAs, Governors and Senators begin 3-day conclave in Naivasha. Ruto is nailing serious pact while opposition are still arguing like small kids
If ODM was to quit GOK - it now - they have 3 months before Nomination start in Jan - March.
I think you're trying to re-invent 2002 with desperation that is almost clinically madness.
Just looking at you figures you remind me of 2002 elections .
The biggest Mistake Moi did was thinking Uhuru would inherit his votes.
Same fallacy Pundit is thinking . Automatically Raila former regions will support Ruto.
For more than 2 decades Moi had fought GEMA and created a coalition against GEMA then he thought by choising Uhuru he will wipe out this . GEMA refused to board and the other tribes felt betrayed and chose Kibaki as a better option .
Come 2027 Ruto has fought Raila for 20 years then he thinks he can get his voter base . Thats a whole generation meaning if you were being born in 2008 when Ruto was fighting Raila in 2027 you will elegible to vote same as happened in 2002 majority will refuse to board .
Now he created 2 Monsters Gachagua and Sifuna .
I said since 2022 Gachagua has never been interested of Being a President and there will emerge a new leader . You never listened . How did I know , because we are in the thick of things .
Im going to tell you even if 2 opposition camps emerge Ruto is still going to be No 3 . At most he will gather 27% of the votes
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Garbage In Garbage Out.
Moi had been in politics his whole life leave about reading and he was defeated in 2002 . You think this exell sheet and fake figures will excite anyone . You are wrong in assumption that Ruto is the new Raila , Sifuna has inherited majority of that votes . Ruto perfomed even worse than Uhuru in North Eastern and some parts of Coast why do think he now has inherited Raila base there where as he has been fighting him for the last 20 years ……
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Lol Nowayhaha pick another brush. This one is too broad.
Ruto will inherit pastoralists and Mijikenda from Raila. Likely the turnout suffers. Luo, Luhya and maybe Gusii ndio shida.
First for Ruto's eternal war against Raila - not even marrying Ida can change that.
Second Ruto's big trust deficit after hanging RiggyG out to dry.
MKE -
Accept first Ruto & UDA rigged Mbeere just like Malava - the scheme that was thwarted in Ol Kalou - where Pundit had UDA 45-55% DCP - modelling rigging. 👀
Add to that ukora - which causes deep anger when you screw people - that NOONE believes for a second that Ruto will back Kindiki in 2032.
For these reasons I expect pragmatic Ruto to drop Kindiki.
LUO -
Ruto 85% is delusional. For the very 2 reasons above: long, painful anti-Raila war plus trust deficit of promising Mbadi 2032 which is a transparent lie.
Unless he drops Kindiki for Mbadi - then as Nowayhaha says MKE and Luhya anger mounts.
LUHYA -
Ruto 50% vs 40 Sifuna. How now? There is anger over Malava rigging - then hollow Madvd PM which makes the offer USELESS - then fighting Raila - then uwongo ati Madvd/Weta/Oparanya 2032. False promises only attract scorn. Then Sifuna. Here is where you should have Sifuna 85% not Ruto in Luo.
GUSII -
Ruto 30% vs 61% Matiang'i. Looks generous to Ruto - unless opposition mishandle Matiang'i like Azimio mishandled Kalonzo in 2022 - and handed Ruto some Kamba protest votes. Gusii are whiny cerelac babies like Kamba.
If Ruto starts hounding Matiang'i over Ruaraka land saga - he can totally luck out. But at least he is not promising Gusii 2032.
MAA -
Kajiado you think Ruto will sweep Maa 100%. Ruto has inherited them but still outlandish. RiggyG makuzo game will bear fruit. He seems keen to reserve countywide seats for Maa in exchange for PORK votes.
Even Narok you underrate RiggyG game... Maa don't hate Kikuyu like say Luo do.
We will see as the game heats up and lineups take shape.
This Aug-10-2026 MOAS is outrightly biased for Ruto.
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And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
Kalonzo today has shared my opinion on these Sifuna opinion polls - PAID for by Kenyattas and NIS.
And principally we do MOASS because we dont believe in Opinion polls.
If you believe in opinion polls - log off.
And we meet in 2027.
I have been doing this MOASS since 2005
Opinion polls I am waiting to read ni wale jamaa wa Mizani Africa - they are only one I lately think they are good.
Yet we have an opinion poll that's not more than a month old (TIFA July 2026) that shows ODM supporters leaning 75% to Linda Mwananchi (Sifuna/Orengo) and 25% to Linda Ground (Oburu/WSR).
Make that make sense.
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This is the kind of pushback I was expecting, but you can't argue it without putting your own numbers on the table — how else do we move this forward?
For now, assume Ruto–Kindiki runs. And you can't seriously expect Kindiki to be a non-factor in Mt Kenya East. That region's politics is heating up, and DPORK matters a lot to them. You keep making a meal out of Mbeere (never mind what we're hearing out of Olkalau) — but UDA won two MCA seats in Mbeere, and the High Court ruled that result fair and square. UDA also won the Malava MP seat and later an MCA seat there too. All of that you call noise. Olkalau apparently isn't.
In Mt Kenya East, Kindiki struggles in the upper belt — Embu through Imenti — which has been aligned with the Kikuyu since the '90s. But the drier lower parts have historically sided with KANU/Moi, and Kindiki is close to their reward for that.
Luo Nyanza: outside of Orengo, the Luo political class is almost entirely inside GOK — from intellectuals like Prof Nyong'o to grassroots figures like Makanga, from MCAs up to Oburu and Ida. Ruto has also handed them real power — Omollo, Mbadi, Energy. There's visible development happening, especially in South Nyanza. Luos may be grieving Raila, but they also know the Kikuyu establishment dislikes them — and Gachagua more than most — far more than Ruto ever will. They remember Ruto made one of them PM, and that he's treated them with dignity.
What I see online is Luos who want nothing more than to punish the Kikuyu — the same energy I see from the Olkalau crowd laser-focused on punishing Ruto.
NEP, Kamatusa, Coast: settled. It's Ruto.
Narok: barely any Kikuyu presence — it's roughly 50-50 Kalenjin/Maasai, and I don't see real problems there. Ruto's already won over Ledama, the Maa hardliner.
Kajiado is trickier. Maa are maybe 40-50%, and Ruto dominates that esp with Amboseli gift to them. The rest of Kajiado mirrors Nairobi — cosmopolitan. So Ruto likely gets about 80% of the Maa vote (roughly 35% of the county) plus his share of the cosmopolitan side.
Luhyaland is still a genuinely tough nut to crack — the Sifuna phenomenon is real and worth watching closely.
Gusii: Ruto got 35% last time. Now he has a stronger Arati, the ODM structure, and his own loyal base — plus intense clan dynamics working in his favor. Add a confused, directionless Jubilee under Matiang'i (NOT EVEN PARTY LEADER), and 30% for Ruto is a conservative floor — it could hit 50% if Matiang'i gets squeezed out in favor of a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket, or more likely a Kalonzo–Mt Kenya DPORK pairing.
Anyway — put your own spreadsheet together and share it.
Lol Nowayhaha pick another brush. This one is too broad.
Ruto will inherit pastoralists and Mijikenda from Raila. Likely the turnout suffers. Luo, Luhya and maybe Gusii ndio shida.
First for Ruto's eternal war against Raila - not even marrying Ida can change that.
Second Ruto's big trust deficit after hanging RiggyG out to dry.
MKE -
Accept first Ruto & UDA rigged Mbeere just like Malava - the scheme that was thwarted in Ol Kalou - where Pundit had UDA 45-55% DCP - modelling rigging. 👀
Add to that ukora - which causes deep anger when you screw people - that NOONE believes for a second that Ruto will back Kindiki in 2032.
For these reasons I expect pragmatic Ruto to drop Kindiki.
LUO -
Ruto 85% is delusional. For the very 2 reasons above: long, painful anti-Raila war plus trust deficit of promising Mbadi 2032 which is a transparent lie.
Unless he drops Kindiki for Mbadi - then as Nowayhaha says MKE and Luhya anger mounts.
LUHYA -
Ruto 50% vs 40 Sifuna. How now? There is anger over Malava rigging - then hollow Madvd PM which makes the offer USELESS - then fighting Raila - then uwongo ati Madvd/Weta/Oparanya 2032. False promises only attract scorn. Then Sifuna. Here is where you should have Sifuna 85% not Ruto in Luo.
GUSII -
Ruto 30% vs 61% Matiang'i. Looks generous to Ruto - unless opposition mishandle Matiang'i like Azimio mishandled Kalonzo in 2022 - and handed Ruto some Kamba protest votes. Gusii are whiny cerelac babies like Kamba.
If Ruto starts hounding Matiang'i over Ruaraka land saga - he can totally luck out. But at least he is not promising Gusii 2032.
MAA -
Kajiado you think Ruto will sweep Maa 100%. Ruto has inherited them but still outlandish. RiggyG makuzo game will bear fruit. He seems keen to reserve countywide seats for Maa in exchange for PORK votes.
Even Narok you underrate RiggyG game... Maa don't hate Kikuyu like say Luo do.
We will see as the game heats up and lineups take shape.
This Aug-10-2026 MOAS is outrightly biased for Ruto.
-
My official prediction for Olkalua was DCP win of 55 versus UDA 45%;
Well UDA definitely gave it all;
And I was kinda expecting either Kipipiri (which happened) or them to be swayed by goodies - but it wasnt close.
Anyway Mizani are quite good and have excellent record - unfortunately they have stopped realizing polls quite often
I think Ruto will perform very well in Luos for many reason 1) Many powerful positions 2) Many development projects 3) hatred/rivarly with kikuyus 4) 99% of ODM are in Broad-based bar Orengo who is unpopular and Babu who wishes he was Sifuna getting the headlines.
I see 10% knock off because some Raila diehards will be mourning and I see 10% lower tunrout.
And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
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Agreed.
Even with such outright bias, WSR gets just 50.1%!
Desperate.
Lol Nowayhaha pick another brush. This one is too broad.
Ruto will inherit pastoralists and Mijikenda from Raila. Likely the turnout suffers. Luo, Luhya and maybe Gusii ndio shida.
First for Ruto's eternal war against Raila - not even marrying Ida can change that.
Second Ruto's big trust deficit after hanging RiggyG out to dry.
MKE -
Accept first Ruto & UDA rigged Mbeere just like Malava - the scheme that was thwarted in Ol Kalou - where Pundit had UDA 45-55% DCP - modelling rigging. 👀
Add to that ukora - which causes deep anger when you screw people - that NOONE believes for a second that Ruto will back Kindiki in 2032.
For these reasons I expect pragmatic Ruto to drop Kindiki.
LUO -
Ruto 85% is delusional. For the very 2 reasons above: long, painful anti-Raila war plus trust deficit of promising Mbadi 2032 which is a transparent lie.
Unless he drops Kindiki for Mbadi - then as Nowayhaha says MKE and Luhya anger mounts.
LUHYA -
Ruto 50% vs 40 Sifuna. How now? There is anger over Malava rigging - then hollow Madvd PM which makes the offer USELESS - then fighting Raila - then uwongo ati Madvd/Weta/Oparanya 2032. False promises only attract scorn. Then Sifuna. Here is where you should have Sifuna 85% not Ruto in Luo.
GUSII -
Ruto 30% vs 61% Matiang'i. Looks generous to Ruto - unless opposition mishandle Matiang'i like Azimio mishandled Kalonzo in 2022 - and handed Ruto some Kamba protest votes. Gusii are whiny cerelac babies like Kamba.
If Ruto starts hounding Matiang'i over Ruaraka land saga - he can totally luck out. But at least he is not promising Gusii 2032.
MAA -
Kajiado you think Ruto will sweep Maa 100%. Ruto has inherited them but still outlandish. RiggyG makuzo game will bear fruit. He seems keen to reserve countywide seats for Maa in exchange for PORK votes.
Even Narok you underrate RiggyG game... Maa don't hate Kikuyu like say Luo do.
We will see as the game heats up and lineups take shape.
This Aug-10-2026 MOAS is outrightly biased for Ruto.
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Why don't you produce your own and share?
Ruto has a solid 48-50% one year to the election.
That is NOT desperate.
And that is when I have been generous to Sifuna :) :) a paper tiger who is fizzling out - Ruto is likely at 55-60% once we see this Sifuna thing play out - and by the time I realease my next MOASS somewhere when IEBC will be done with registration or something major happening.
Ruto has yet to make serious counter moves....bado he is just consolidating ODM.
My last MOASS of 2022 I had many scenarios esp given Kikuyus was difficult to model.
But this time round we have much smaller problem - mostly western and maybe Murima west - the rest are minor tinkering of 10-20% - get an excel and see if they have any IMPACT - nadada.
Agreed.
Even with such outright bias, WSR gets just 50.1%!
Desperate.
-
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
My official prediction for Olkalua was DCP win of 55 versus UDA 45%;
Well UDA definitely gave it all;
And I was kinda expecting either Kipipiri (which happened) or them to be swayed by goodies - but it wasnt close.
Anyway Mizani are quite good and have excellent record - unfortunately they have stopped realizing polls quite often
I think Ruto will perform very well in Luos for many reason 1) Many powerful positions 2) Many development projects 3) hatred/rivarly with kikuyus 4) 99% of ODM are in Broad-based bar Orengo who is unpopular and Babu who wishes he was Sifuna getting the headlines.
I see 10% knock off because some Raila diehards will be mourning and I see 10% lower tunrout.
And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
-
Thank you for your kind words.
Again you make accusation that are false and try to ascribe bias where none exists.
1) Turn out - you cried - said I played around it. I never touched turnout. Not with my hands. The other stuff I didnt touch is registration of 2022, 2026, 2027 - all these are AI project.
Claude estimate we will have declining turnout -
One important finding worth flagging: Kenya's turnout hasn't been growing across cycles — it's been falling every election since 2010:
2013: 85.9% (IEBC actual)
2017: 79.5% (IEBC actual)
2022: 64.8% (IEBC actual)
That's a real, steady decline, not growth. Extrapolating that trend (via linear regression)
on, which lines up closely with the average per-cycle drop) projects ~54% turnout nationally for 2027 — a continuation of the same trajectory, not a rebound.
2) Only tinkering I did - was to tell AI - keep Kikuyus & Kalenjin turnout 10% higher - which similar to 2022 as they are likely going to be very motivated. I would normally add Luos - those 3 are very good historically in turnout - but Luos this time round I dont see them turning out that much.
3) I don't see any major disagreement on how I assign tribal numbers - maybe Luo 85% - can we go with 65%? What else is your beef? Just give me the numbers you think my Kalenjin ethno-nationalism got in their way.
4) I think you know Ruto having captured ODM and with Raila dead was always going to be hard to beat - you should handle that part rather maturely.
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
My official prediction for Olkalua was DCP win of 55 versus UDA 45%;
Well UDA definitely gave it all;
And I was kinda expecting either Kipipiri (which happened) or them to be swayed by goodies - but it wasnt close.
Anyway Mizani are quite good and have excellent record - unfortunately they have stopped realizing polls quite often
I think Ruto will perform very well in Luos for many reason 1) Many powerful positions 2) Many development projects 3) hatred/rivarly with kikuyus 4) 99% of ODM are in Broad-based bar Orengo who is unpopular and Babu who wishes he was Sifuna getting the headlines.
I see 10% knock off because some Raila diehards will be mourning and I see 10% lower tunrout.
And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
-
@RVPundit…
I give you a taste of Luhyaland as you search around for where you will get votes to pass the 50%, plus 1 mark.
I did say here recently that Oparanya is Linda Mwananchi chini ya maji. The whole of Luhyaland is well and truly gone for WsR, your narrative that he will get 90% of ODM only exists in your imagination.
A rough run of your numbers, even at this early stage, puts WsR at 36% outcome, best case.
-
There will be signs?
There will be indicators?
We will see in crowds - Jana it was disappointing.
I dont see MCas, Mps, Senators, governors rushing in.
I see those squeezed by Broad-Based using sifuna.
Khawale, Malala, Tim, Natembeya, 2 Mps in Bungoma (Kalasinga & Bumala)
Like I said in the other thread - I see Sifuna ending as prime Eugene Wamalwa of New Ford-K or DCP
At best he will become AMANI coalition of MaDVD+Wamalwa of 2012
Baluhya you guys are broke and good candidate for silly expirements.
Anyway I am seeing Sifuna cutting lonely figure being dragged along by Pauline NJoroge.
@RVPundit…
I give you a taste of Luhyaland as you search around for where you will get votes to pass the 50%, plus 1 mark.
I did say here recently that Oparanya is Linda Mwananchi chini ya maji. The whole of Luhyaland is well and truly gone for WsR, your narrative that he will get 90% of ODM only exists in your imagination.
A rough run of your numbers, even at this early stage, puts WsR at 36% outcome, best case.
-
I disagree,
MOAS is not at all a tough exercise - almost any above-average politically passionate person can do it.
Nor "brave" under an online moniker. His name actually means hubris and we will never know him.
He claims to be a software/data geek - with deep domain interest - easy-peasy.
You are correct about his Ol Kalou ukora. It was based on the hooded boys work not any dispassionate reading of the ground.
I might just do mine. Kazi rahisi.
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
-
Let me wait for great legend Charles Hornsby. Youre just lamenting.
I disagree,
MOAS is not at all a tough exercise - almost any above-average politically passionate person can do it.
Nor "brave" under an online moniker. His name actually means hubris and we will never know him.
He claims to be a software/data geek - with deep domain interest - easy-peasy.
You are correct about his Ol Kalou ukora. It was based on the hooded boys work not any dispassionate reading of the ground.
I might just do mine. Kazi rahisi.
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
-
My thinking on the MOASS:
1) It contains an inherent bias (not deliberate) to the benefit of WSR on account of the following
i) WSR already has a team/coalition complete with a prez candidate (WSR) + running mate (Kindiki), whereas the opposition is yet to coalesce around a team (Prez candidate/DP/PM etc
ii) The MOASS assumes that the opposition candidates are running not only separately (Melon, Sifuna, Gachagua etc), but also against each other.
iii) Building on (ii) above, we know that in political math, 1+1 = 2.5. Meaning that when a candidate with 10% joining another with 10% will bump up the total to above 20%, due to bandwagon effect
iv) The MOASS assumes that WSR can maintain both the so-called Mt Kenya East AND Luo Nyanza. Yet we know that there is a direct competition btn the two for DP. Get one and lose some support in the other
v) I have already addressed the disparities in projected turnouts
That said, I will proceed to paint my own maths with a broad brush due to the currently fluid nature of the political landscape:
A) The opposition remains united against WSR
B) With A above, i foresee the political clustering as follows-
a) Western Kenya (Luo Nyanza - Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira, TransNzoia).
- in here, I see a 50:50 sharing between WSR and the opposition due to BroadBase arrangement on the side of WSR and Sifuna/Orengo/Matian'gi effect on the side of the opposition.
- essentially, this is a dead heat between the WSR and the opposition
b) Kamatusa belt (Kalenjin Counties - Bomet, Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, EMC, Baringo, West Pokot, Maa - Kajiado, Narok, Samburu, Ateker (Turkana)
- here I give WSR 90% and opposition 10%
c) GEMA + Akamba (Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui)
- here I give WSR 10% and opposition 90%.
d) Coast + NE (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Msa, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo)
- here I give WSR 67% and the opposition 33%. On account of non-native population in coast (Akamba, Luo,Luhya, GEMA) and the usual split in clan support among the Somali, Borana
e) Nairobi
Given the distribution of the ethnic polities in Nairobi in (a) to (d) above, I give WSR 25% and the opposition 75%.
Plugging these into RVPundit's very robust model, this throws out the following numbers:
WSR 42%
Opposition 58%.
Thank you for your kind words.
Again you make accusation that are false and try to ascribe bias where none exists.
1) Turn out - you cried - said I played around it. I never touched turnout. Not with my hands. The other stuff I didnt touch is registration of 2022, 2026, 2027 - all these are AI project.
Claude estimate we will have declining turnout -
One important finding worth flagging: Kenya's turnout hasn't been growing across cycles — it's been falling every election since 2010:
2013: 85.9% (IEBC actual)
2017: 79.5% (IEBC actual)
2022: 64.8% (IEBC actual)
That's a real, steady decline, not growth. Extrapolating that trend (via linear regression)
on, which lines up closely with the average per-cycle drop) projects ~54% turnout nationally for 2027 — a continuation of the same trajectory, not a rebound.
2) Only tinkering I did - was to tell AI - keep Kikuyus & Kalenjin turnout 10% higher - which similar to 2022 as they are likely going to be very motivated. I would normally add Luos - those 3 are very good historically in turnout - but Luos this time round I dont see them turning out that much.
3) I don't see any major disagreement on how I assign tribal numbers - maybe Luo 85% - can we go with 65%? What else is your beef? Just give me the numbers you think my Kalenjin ethno-nationalism got in their way.
4) I think you know Ruto having captured ODM and with Raila dead was always going to be hard to beat - you should handle that part rather maturely.
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
My official prediction for Olkalua was DCP win of 55 versus UDA 45%;
Well UDA definitely gave it all;
And I was kinda expecting either Kipipiri (which happened) or them to be swayed by goodies - but it wasnt close.
Anyway Mizani are quite good and have excellent record - unfortunately they have stopped realizing polls quite often
I think Ruto will perform very well in Luos for many reason 1) Many powerful positions 2) Many development projects 3) hatred/rivarly with kikuyus 4) 99% of ODM are in Broad-based bar Orengo who is unpopular and Babu who wishes he was Sifuna getting the headlines.
I see 10% knock off because some Raila diehards will be mourning and I see 10% lower tunrout.
And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
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sorry - double posted
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😁 Hii yako ni art & craft not analysis.
My thinking on the MOASS:
1) It contains an inherent bias (not deliberate) to the benefit of WSR on account of the following
i) WSR already has a team/coalition complete with a prez candidate (WSR) + running mate (Kindiki), whereas the opposition is yet to coalesce around a team (Prez candidate/DP/PM etc
ii) The MOASS assumes that the opposition candidates are running not only separately (Melon, Sifuna, Gachagua etc), but also against each other.
iii) Building on (ii) above, we know that in political math, 1+1 = 2.5. Meaning that when a candidate with 10% joining another with 10% will bump up the total to above 20%, due to bandwagon effect
iv) The MOASS assumes that WSR can maintain both the so-called Mt Kenya East AND Luo Nyanza. Yet we know that there is a direct competition btn the two for DP. Get one and lose some support in the other
v) I have already addressed the disparities in projected turnouts
That said, I will proceed to paint my own maths with a broad brush due to the currently fluid nature of the political landscape:
A) The opposition remains united against WSR
B) With A above, i foresee the political clustering as follows-
a) Western Kenya (Luo Nyanza - Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira, TransNzoia).
- in here, I see a 50:50 sharing between WSR and the opposition due to BroadBase arrangement on the side of WSR and Sifuna/Orengo/Matian'gi effect on the side of the opposition.
- essentially, this is a dead heat between the WSR and the opposition
b) Kamatusa belt (Kalenjin Counties - Bomet, Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, EMC, Baringo, West Pokot, Maa - Kajiado, Narok, Samburu, Ateker (Turkana)
- here I give WSR 90% and opposition 10%
c) GEMA + Akamba (Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui)
- here I give WSR 10% and opposition 90%.
d) Coast + NE (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Msa, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo)
- here I give WSR 67% and the opposition 33%. On account of non-native population in coast (Akamba, Luo,Luhya, GEMA) and the usual split in clan support among the Somali, Borana
e) Nairobi
Given the distribution of the ethnic polities in Nairobi in (a) to (d) above, I give WSR 25% and the opposition 75%.
Plugging these into RVPundit's very robust model, this throws out the following numbers:
WSR 42%
Opposition 58%.
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MOASS is snapshot. Ruto Broadbased are clearly ahead as they are nailing things early.We can model opposition best play n it remain a our model. Opposition could pull last minute magic. For now this what obtain..Ruto has odm n kk machine assembled in naivasha. Opposition are in 4 major camps. Will they unite....who knows. We watcg n update. This good baselind 1yr to election
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Soon you will acknowledge Ruto cant make it back …. It took you some time to acknowledge Ruto lost legitimacy after 2024 , It took you some time to acknowledge Mois loss , so hard it hit you that you pretended you were supporting Kibaki where as you were singing how Moi is dawa ya Mt Kenya in 1992 and 1997 .
Garbage In Garbage Out.
Moi had been in politics his whole life leave about reading and he was defeated in 2002 . You think this exell sheet and fake figures will excite anyone . You are wrong in assumption that Ruto is the new Raila , Sifuna has inherited majority of that votes . Ruto perfomed even worse than Uhuru in North Eastern and some parts of Coast why do think he now has inherited Raila base there where as he has been fighting him for the last 20 years ……
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Stop online diarrhoea. Ruto is not losing to hapless opposition. He is nailing his coalition a year to election and look very good now. I never and will never support Moi. My first interraction with Moi was him breaking doors to our home in 1989 looking for Mwakenya. I wish I was at home. I would have shown you my father pictures in DP. In 1992 we had boxes of DP Kibaki posters nobody was willing to take. My mother first time voted for Raila in 2007. My father died without ever liking Moi or Raila.
Soon you will acknowledge Ruto cant make it back …. It took you some time to acknowledge Ruto lost legitimacy after 2024 , It took you some time to acknowledge Mois loss , so hard it hit you that you pretended you were supporting Kibaki where as you were singing how Moi is dawa ya Mt Kenya in 1992 and 1997 .
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I ain't just bitching about Mbeere. How do I know it was rigged? Because otherwise Kindiki wouldn't be on the ropes post-Ol Kalou. Why discard him as DP if MKE is kosher? Ruto wouldn't allow the damaging rumormill about the runningmate tussle in Broad-Based if Kindiki was safe.
Even if the MKE upper-lower history holds, Kindiki can only deliver 1%. Not worth DPORK.
About courts upholding UDA win don't be pointless. If the hooded boys are not on camera switching boxes - it's basically the presiding officers' word against the litigant. After a such horrifying experience no one dared or bothered to show up for the MCA, etc round.
This is the kind of pushback I was expecting, but you can't argue it without putting your own numbers on the table — how else do we move this forward?
For now, assume Ruto–Kindiki runs. And you can't seriously expect Kindiki to be a non-factor in Mt Kenya East. That region's politics is heating up, and DPORK matters a lot to them. You keep making a meal out of Mbeere (never mind what we're hearing out of Olkalau) — but UDA won two MCA seats in Mbeere, and the High Court ruled that result fair and square. UDA also won the Malava MP seat and later an MCA seat there too. All of that you call noise. Olkalau apparently isn't.
In Mt Kenya East, Kindiki struggles in the upper belt — Embu through Imenti — which has been aligned with the Kikuyu since the '90s. But the drier lower parts have historically sided with KANU/Moi, and Kindiki is close to their reward for that.
Agreed.
Luo Nyanza: outside of Orengo, the Luo political class is almost entirely inside GOK — from intellectuals like Prof Nyong'o to grassroots figures like Makanga, from MCAs up to Oburu and Ida. Ruto has also handed them real power — Omollo, Mbadi, Energy. There's visible development happening, especially in South Nyanza. Luos may be grieving Raila, but they also know the Kikuyu establishment dislikes them — and Gachagua more than most — far more than Ruto ever will. They remember Ruto made one of them PM, and that he's treated them with dignity.
What I see online is Luos who want nothing more than to punish the Kikuyu — the same energy I see from the Olkalau crowd laser-focused on punishing Ruto.
NEP, Kamatusa, Coast: settled. It's Ruto.
Narok: barely any Kikuyu presence — it's roughly 50-50 Kalenjin/Maasai, and I don't see real problems there. Ruto's already won over Ledama, the Maa hardliner.
Kajiado is trickier. Maa are maybe 40-50%, and Ruto dominates that esp with Amboseli gift to them. The rest of Kajiado mirrors Nairobi — cosmopolitan. So Ruto likely gets about 80% of the Maa vote (roughly 35% of the county) plus his share of the cosmopolitan side.
Luhya is not a hard nut to crack - it's gone with Sifuna.
Like Mbeere gradually you'll wizen over Malava too. Rigging gets you nothing but anger and scorn. It's the singular worst thing to be caught doing. The Ol Kalou expose means every bitter loser can unload on Ruto.
The stars line for Mbadi to answer ODM's runningmate demand before merger; and to lock up Luo.
Mlima, Luhya are gone - while Joho has a low marginal yield as the bulk of the Coast/Muslim vote is already with Ruto.
Why can't Ruto give the PMship to Matiang'i - since it's otherwise wasted on the bland, colorless MaDVD? Simple: besides the brand & personality dissonance, and the Gusii full house situation in Broad-Based, having picked the Luo (Mbadi) over the Luhya for runningmate, a further Luhya-for-Gusii shaffle would boomerang and absolutely scuttle the last Luhya he desperately needs to hit 50%+1.
Luhyaland is still a genuinely tough nut to crack — the Sifuna phenomenon is real and worth watching closely.
Gusii: Ruto got 35% last time. Now he has a stronger Arati, the ODM structure, and his own loyal base — plus intense clan dynamics working in his favor. Add a confused, directionless Jubilee under Matiang'i (NOT EVEN PARTY LEADER), and 30% for Ruto is a conservative floor — it could hit 50% if Matiang'i gets squeezed out in favor of a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket, or more likely a Kalonzo–Mt Kenya DPORK pairing.
Anyway — put your own spreadsheet together and share it.
In short I think Ruto is in trouble despite your brave face.
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Robina,
We had the Mbeere North by-election covering three wards, plus a repeat election in two wards for the MCA seats. UDA won—right in the political home of two heavyweights, JB Muturi and former Senator Lenny Kivuti.
Then came Malava, followed by another by-election months later, and UDA won again.
The problem with dishonest analyst like is a total lack of objectivity. It is nearly impossible to engage in an adult conversation with people who lack core political principles, objectivity, and dispassionate analysis.
The objective of political punditry is to GET IT RIGHT!
You're very months from becoming a witch like Nowayaha screaming every thread about 2002 and how Ruto is useless :) :)
We quickly accepted the Ol Kalou outcome and removed the Kikuyu vote from our baseline calculations.
The Murima East versus Murima West divide did not start with William Ruto. Kiraitu Murungi pioneered it in 2013 with his Bus Party (Alliance Party of Kenya), sweeping multiple seats. Kiraitu proved early on how effectively that regional strategy could perform.
While critics may dismiss Kithure Kindiki, he unequivocally belongs to Murima East and will comfortably sweep Tharaka Nithi.
Following Ol Kalou, we saw a shift of Kikuyu voters toward DCP, but DCP has failed to build momentum outside Kikuyus. Its influence remains confined to a few isolated figures Manyatta MP and Linturi in entire Mt Kenya east.
Crucially, Kindiki has now brought Kiraitu—the architect of the Murima East movement—into the fold. That is a major political shift, especially among the vote-rich Imenti sub-group in Meru.
Look at the broader layout in Meru and Embu: UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbariri leads the charge. All three governors in Murima East belong to UDA, alongside all three senators and virtually the entire parliamentary delegation bar one MP.
As for the Luhya political matrix, look at Edwin Sifuna: his coalition relies on three MPs who defected to DCP and one from Ford-Kenya (Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, who fell out with Moses Wetang'ula). Beyond that Sifuna has just taken Eugene Wamalwa DCP led by Natembeya wing and is running around minus ODM - Otsoti & Caleb :)
Now, over 40 MPs in Western are aligned with Ruto, and Musalia Mudavadi has formally merged his party into UDA. Even if you factor in standard political attrition and assume a 50% loss on the ground, Ruto effectively controls half of Western Kenya right now.
When it comes to picking a Deputy President running mate for 2027, Ruto still has a full year to play his cards.
Kindiki remains the most obvious and strategic choice—he keeps the coalition stable and doesn't upset the apple cart.
The play for Ruto and Kindiki is simple: quietly dangle and promise the DP slot to about five senior ODM figures. Let them engage in an internal civil war fighting over the seat, only for everyone to eventually realize that keeping a safe option like Kindiki in place for 2027 is the only logical compromise—setting up an open succession race in 2032 (*kila mtu 2032*).
We have already signaled to Moses Wetang'ula and Musalia Mudavadi to align their focus toward 2032. The ambitious ODM figures will get a strong dose of reality soon enough.
As for Fred Matiang'i, Ruto cannot offer him a Prime Cabinet Secretary role without deeply upsetting Mudavadi. Nor can he hand over the Speaker's seat, which would disrupt existing arrangements with Ford-Kenya and PAA.
What remains on the negotiation table for incoming ODM allies are legislative leverage positions: Majority Leadership, Chief Whip, and strategic committee chairmanships.
Matiang'i could at best be offered a single Cabinet Secretary position for himself if he crosses over. Otherwise, state anti-corruption mechanisms (EACC) will likely close in, and he could easily find himself facing prosecution.
Ultimately, Ruto's main tactical focus remains CHECKMATING the Mount Kenya heartland who enjoy 20-25% of the national vote.
Loud opposition figures like Sifuna are merely inflated balloons—easy enough to puncture when the full machinery of state craft kicks in.
Kalonzo ni mtu bure stuck with 8% of Ukambani.
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Kizungu mingi. You don't brutalize, kidnap and disappear people because you are popular. On top of open bribery. Reports are online of what observers and monitors think of Malava and Mbeere.
UDA's quick acceptance of Ol Kalou doesn't indicate modesty or love of democracy. Quite the opposite - an attempt to confer on the openly biased IEBC undeserved legitimacy.
You also can't wish away this reality. Oburu & Junets are not entirely clueless - they have minimums.
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How many Luhya incumbents back Sifuna?
This is hardly a solid metric. Incumbents mind the till and will decamp during the transfer window.
George Natembeya
Godfrey Osotsi
Boni Khalwale
Jack Wanami Wamboka (Bumula MP)
Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai MP)
Oundo Mudenyo (Butula MP)
Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands MP)
Caleb Amisi (Saboti MP)
Peter Salasya (Mumias East MP)
Patrick Simiyu (Cherangany MP)
Cleophas Malala not incumbent but significant
That's an impressive list for a mere first-term senator. The bandwagon is growing.
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6mps, 1 governor, 2 senators sounds like DAP of Wamalwa.
Very impressive replicating or replacing Eunice Wamalwa
Governor : Natembeya.
These current DAP leaders.
Bumula Jack Wamboka
Cherangany Patrick Simiyu Barasa
Kiminini Maurice Kakai Bisau
Luanda Dick Maungu
Mumias East Peter Kalerwa Salasya
How many Luhya incumbents back Sifuna?
This is hardly a solid metric. Incumbents mind the till and will decamp during the transfer window.
George Natembeya
Godfrey Osotsi
Boni Khalwale
Jack Wanami Wamboka (Bumula MP)
Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai MP)
Oundo Mudenyo (Butula MP)
Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands MP)
Caleb Amisi (Saboti MP)
Peter Salasya (Mumias East MP)
Patrick Simiyu (Cherangany MP)
Cleophas Malala not incumbent but significant
That's an impressive list for a mere first-term senator. The bandwagon is growing.
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That's a big improvement from 3 MCAs a few weeks ago.
But I don't buy your logic: how many Mlima MPs are with RiggyG yet we know DCP numbers?
If you apply that to Luhya Sifuna is more popular mashinani.
6mps, 1 governor, 2 senators sounds like DAP of Wamalwa.
Very impressive replicating or replacing Eunice Wamalwa
Governor : Natembeya.
These current DAP leaders.
Bumula Jack Wamboka
Cherangany Patrick Simiyu Barasa
Kiminini Maurice Kakai Bisau
Luanda Dick Maungu
Mumias East Peter Kalerwa Salasya
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Rigathi worked hard for 4yrs until Olkalau big harvest.
Sifuna has started the journey.
He will need to work harder.
And there is no time.
He is partyless as we speak.
We are about 3 months to Jan-March nominations.
This is when MPs/MCAS will make moves. We know kikuyus are gone as all are leaving UDA.
For Sifuna it now or never. Now he has just replace Eugene Wamalwa in the table
That's a big improvement from 3 MCAs a few weeks ago.
But I don't buy your logic: how many Mlima MPs are with RiggyG yet we know DCP numbers?
If you apply that to Luhya Sifuna is more popular mashinani.
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I would point you to Malava vs Kisa but I don't think you'd get it.
Look, I don't have anything so personal against Ruto or for RiggyG/Karojo/Sifuna.
Do I think Ruto is doing so badly or goodly? No, I don't. The results are clear in the ~5% GDP growth.
Would Kalonzo or Sifuna perform better? In all likelihood no. RiggyG is disqualified; Kalonzo is particularly dumb; Sifuna is untested. Such a coalition is likely to bicker, fallout, fail. You'd be back to Handshake in a New York minute.
I agree with your premise that the object of punditry is as accurate as possible analysis & prediction.
Why do I think Ruto is doing badly?
i. The youth ran amok and threatened to overthrow him. Crying about cost of living.
Has anything changed since 2024? Maybe. But Iran war means inflation will continue to rise. Present drought is bad too for Ruto. Unless he has a magic wand he will face Uhuru-Raila 2022 problem of inflation.
ii. RiggyG and Sifuna are bad news. RiggyG is the new Raila and has routed Ruto ruthlessly. Sifuna is akin to Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalawa in Luhya. After 20 years under the Luo yoke they will not accept a new Kalenjin overlord. Ruto is swimming against the tide there.
Now look objectively at Ruto's reality:
The Luhya are not with him or he would not do what he did in Malava. Imagine rich, famous Governor Natembeya was kidnapped for 2 days;- what do you think happened to a mere agent - a Wafula Nobody? Would they show up to fight the same state-sponsored goons in MCA byelection a month later? That would be suicidal.
Why is Ol Kalou twice bad for Ruto?
Because after DCP exposed the rigging machine - Ruto is now a naked king. The Luhya and MKE victory narrative has collapsed. Even if we assume the victories were real. It's like a search in a suspected thief's house - he only stole the phone and tv - but everything will be taken as loot - even what he owns legitimately. 👀
What should Ruto do?
a. Vision 2060 is a fair play. Not quite the jiu-jitsu masterstroke but good.
I see danger in the "Vision 2060" and "Beyond 2030" confusion. Or "national conversation". Stop sideshows and stammers.
Just sell Vision 2060: and break it into 5-year plans where the hanging fruits can be his 2027-32 manifesto.
b. Stop EJK and other ukora which compounds his credibility problems. He has Hustler Fund and is running around with Nyota - but just this June GenZ memorial some youths were kidnapped and turned up brutally tortured. Such immediately cancels the otherwise great optics of victim compensation.
I don't get how these own goals keep happening;- 1 step forward, 2 backwards.
Do a proper model without self-deceipt [sic] and confirmation bias. Wacha kujidanganya in MKE and Luhya. I don't float Mbadi with malice - I see Luo as the only worthy Broad-Based DPORK - and ODM is serious about runningmate. They have real leverage on Ruto with opposition breathing down his neck. He needs ODM more than ODM needs him.
In Luhya Ruto has no choice but to stick with useless Madvd - which he should use to tell Oparanya pole, we can't swap Madvd-for-you without fresh trouble. Shuffling cards there would be an obvious reaction to Sifuna. Bad optics. Double down on more visible duties for Madvd and Mbadi. Delete Mlima.
Joho the loudmouth is not a serious contender - with Kingi and Mvurya already in the tent - he is lucky to be their equal at the table courtesy of Raila.
Voilà.- waiting for your smug n smack about my own MOAS.
Rigathi worked hard for 4yrs until Olkalau big harvest.
Sifuna has started the journey.
He will need to work harder.
And there is no time.
He is partyless as we speak.
We are about 3 months to Jan-March nominations.
This is when MPs/MCAS will make moves. We know kikuyus are gone as all are leaving UDA.
For Sifuna it now or never. Now he has just replace Eugene Wamalwa in the table
That's a big improvement from 3 MCAs a few weeks ago.
But I don't buy your logic: how many Mlima MPs are with RiggyG yet we know DCP numbers?
If you apply that to Luhya Sifuna is more popular mashinani.
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I think pretty much all numbers are firmed up except
1) Sifuna dying wave.
2) Ruto-ODM coaltion - will Kindiki survive ODM onslaught.
3) Opposition arrangment? Who will they field? Will they remain all united?
4) Final registration numbers (lots of background noise of Ruto camp quietly registering numbers) - and final day turnout?
For now, based on my realistic modelling, Ruto is at 48-50% with Kindiki bringing in 3%; Gathietha 23-25%; Sifuna 10-12%; Kaloi 9-10%; Matiangi (3%) & others 2%;
Sifuna numbers are the most fake/uknown at this point.
I would point you to Malava vs Kisa but I don't think you'd get it.
Look, I don't have anything so personal against Ruto or for RiggyG/Karojo/Sifuna.
Do I think Ruto is doing so badly or goodly? No, I don't. The results are clear in the ~5% GDP growth.
Would Kalonzo or Sifuna perform better? In all likelihood no. RiggyG is disqualified; Kalonzo is particularly dumb; Sifuna is untested. Such a coalition is likely to bicker, fallout, fail. You'd be back to Handshake in a New York minute.
I agree with your premise that the object of punditry is as accurate as possible analysis & prediction.
Why do I think Ruto is doing badly?
i. The youth ran amok and threatened to overthrow him. Crying about cost of living.
Has anything changed since 2024? Maybe. But Iran war means inflation will continue to rise. Present drought is bad too for Ruto. Unless he has a magic wand he will face Uhuru-Raila 2022 problem of inflation.
ii. RiggyG and Sifuna are bad news. RiggyG is the new Raila and has routed Ruto ruthlessly. Sifuna is akin to Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalawa in Luhya. After 20 years under the Luo yoke they will not accept a new Kalenjin overlord. Ruto is swimming against the tide there.
Now look objectively at Ruto's reality:
The Luhya are not with him or he would not do what he did in Malava. Imagine rich, famous Governor Natembeya was kidnapped for 2 days;- what do you think happened to a mere agent - a Wafula Nobody? Would they show up to fight the same state-sponsored goons in MCA byelection a month later? That would be suicidal.
Why is Ol Kalou twice bad for Ruto?
Because after DCP exposed the rigging machine - Ruto is now a naked king. The Luhya and MKE victory narrative has collapsed. Even if we assume the victories were real. It's like a search in a suspected thief's house - he only stole the phone and tv - but everything will be taken as loot - even what he owns legitimately. 👀
What should Ruto do?
a. Vision 2060 is a fair play. Not quite the jiu-jitsu masterstroke but good.
I see danger in the "Vision 2060" and "Beyond 2030" confusion. Or "national conversation". Stop sideshows and stammers.
Just sell Vision 2060: and break it into 5-year plans where the hanging fruits can be his 2027-32 manifesto.
b. Stop EJK and other ukora which compounds his credibility problems. He has Hustler Fund and is running around with Nyota - but just this June GenZ memorial some youths were kidnapped and turned up brutally tortured. Such immediately cancels the otherwise great optics of victim compensation.
I don't get how these own goals keep happening;- 1 step forward, 2 backwards.
Do a proper model without self-deceipt [sic] and confirmation bias. Wacha kujidanganya in MKE and Luhya. I don't float Mbadi with malice - I see Luo as the only worthy Broad-Based DPORK - and ODM is serious about runningmate. They have real leverage on Ruto with opposition breathing down his neck. He needs ODM more than ODM needs him.
In Luhya Ruto has no choice but to stick with useless Madvd - which he should use to tell Oparanya pole, we can't swap Madvd-for-you without fresh trouble. Shuffling cards there would be an obvious reaction to Sifuna. Bad optics. Double down on more visible duties for Madvd and Mbadi. Delete Mlima.
Joho the loudmouth is not a serious contender - with Kingi and Mvurya already in the tent - he is lucky to be their equal at the table courtesy of Raila.
Voilà.- waiting for your smug n smack about my own MOAS.
Rigathi worked hard for 4yrs until Olkalau big harvest.
Sifuna has started the journey.
He will need to work harder.
And there is no time.
He is partyless as we speak.
We are about 3 months to Jan-March nominations.
This is when MPs/MCAS will make moves. We know kikuyus are gone as all are leaving UDA.
For Sifuna it now or never. Now he has just replace Eugene Wamalwa in the table
That's a big improvement from 3 MCAs a few weeks ago.
But I don't buy your logic: how many Mlima MPs are with RiggyG yet we know DCP numbers?
If you apply that to Luhya Sifuna is more popular mashinani.
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Tribal census..Hopefully Gen Z can vote against Kasongo without that Kasongo will come back and continue sodomizing Kenya
So far Kasongo is gaining a lot of ground. Only Kikuyus are solidly opposing Kasongo. Luos are in broad based to stay..Sifuna wave is questionable. Maraga cant move morally corrupt voters, matiangi is seen as a fat toad that can only abuse power. Kalonzo has a problem of numbers, his tribe lacks the numbers to go for top seat and win.
The current camps
Gachagua and opposition
Kikuyus, Luhyias and some GeZs
Kasongo and Oburu
Luos, kalenjins, 40% of Luhyias, and Somalis
Ruto wins with 48% and forces a run off. In a run off ruto will win because he will have money to buy votes.
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Ruto has development record that willpower him even without tribes. Ruto has structures, like over hundred thousand widows, over 200K elders, over 400K boda boda groups, women groups, teachers, Over 100K pastors and their congregations and so many groups waiting to be activated to bring votes to the ballot. All are on Ruto massive WhatsApp groups, always talking, organizing, strategizing etc. No human being alive as such network of loyal people on speed dial. Ruto is simply a juggernaut! We tested the groups one week of everyone sending 100 shillings. Over 300 million was raised in about 14 minutes!
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Ruto has development record that willpower him even without tribes. Ruto has structures, like over hundred thousand widows, over 200K elders, over 400K boda boda groups, women groups, teachers, Over 100K pastors and their congregations and so many groups waiting to be activated to bring votes to the ballot. All are on Ruto massive WhatsApp groups, always talking, organizing, strategizing etc. No human being alive as such network of loyal people on speed dial. Ruto is simply a juggernaut! We tested the groups one week of everyone sending 100 shillings. Over 300 million was raised in about 14 minutes!
In Ol Kalou you gave this same song ati Faith Gitau is Mama Pesa bla bla. It amounted to 13%.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Hii kitu aidha Ruto aibe - kwa kufanya fujo na mauaji like his new role model Samia Suluhu - otherwise mtakiona.
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Here is the TIFA Polls as of June 2026:
https://www.tifaresearch.com/kenyas-road-to-2027-general-election-political-parties-presidential-contest-and-coalition-dynamics/
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Update as late August 2026....Ndidi Nyoro off to great start. Matiangi getting destroyed by Arati while former CS bet with Gathietha..Ruto gusii numbers recovering with odm on board. Jubilee doesnt look sellable in Gusii. Sifuna mini wave has failed to gain traction.
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Why mention Sifuna 24/7 if he has not made dent into Ruto's plans for 2027?
Update as late August 2026....Ndidi Nyoro off to great start. Matiangi getting destroyed by Arati while former CS bet with Gathietha..Ruto gusii numbers recovering with odm on board. Jubilee doesnt look sellable in Gusii. Sifuna mini wave has failed to gain traction.
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Ruto has development record that willpower him even without tribes. Ruto has structures, like over hundred thousand widows, over 200K elders, over 400K boda boda groups, women groups, teachers, Over 100K pastors and their congregations and so many groups waiting to be activated to bring votes to the ballot. All are on Ruto massive WhatsApp groups, always talking, organizing, strategizing etc. No human being alive as such network of loyal people on speed dial. Ruto is simply a juggernaut! We tested the groups one week of everyone sending 100 shillings. Over 300 million was raised in about 14 minutes!
In Ol Kalou you gave this same song ati Faith Gitau is Mama Pesa bla bla. It amounted to 13%.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Hii kitu aidha Ruto aibe - kwa kufanya fujo na mauaji like his new role model Samia Suluhu - otherwise mtakiona.
13-15% in mulima is massive. That is what will take Ruto to 60%+ because in his strongholds, it is 97%+
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MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
First debunk there are no Provinces in Kenya .
Second debunk How will Ruto all over a sudden perform where he never performed from Coast North Eastern , Western and Nyanza , why do you think he inherited Raila when its apparent Sifuna has inherited Raila.
Wacha Pombe there is a reason Uhuru used to outperform Raila in Kajiado, Narok and North Eastern . Ruto performed way worse there in comparison to Uhuru 2013
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
Youre truly desperate for Sifuna to take over ODM.
SIfuna pale Jacaranda attracted only one nominated MCA.
There will be signs and symptoms when Sifuna go mainstream.
I am very generous to give him 11%.
I see him ending with at best 3-4%.
First debunk there are no Provinces in Kenya .
Second debunk How will Ruto all over a sudden perform where he never performed from Coast North Eastern , Western and Nyanza , why do you think he inherited Raila when its apparent Sifuna has inherited Raila.
Wacha Pombe there is a reason Uhuru used to outperform Raila in Kajiado, Narok and North Eastern . Ruto performed way worse there in comparison to Uhuru 2013
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
Thanks for this. A few comments:
1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11
- I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground. Wrong. It's firmly in the opposition. Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.
- Taita Taveta: You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta. Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently. Firmly in the opposition
- Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground. Firmly in opposition. WSR should not expect more than 10%.
- Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground. These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition. With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.
- Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county. Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner. Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.
- Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there. Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.
Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%.
And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together.
Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.
In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October. Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya
County Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA
National Vote Share
Thanks for this. A few comments:
1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11
- I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground. Wrong. It's firmly in the opposition. Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.
- Taita Taveta: You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta. Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently. Firmly in the opposition
- Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground. Firmly in opposition. WSR should not expect more than 10%.
- Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground. These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition. With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.
- Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county. Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner. Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.
- Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there. Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.
Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%.
And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together.
Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.
In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October. Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis
Kajiado
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant.
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%.
Taita Taveta
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Lamu
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing.
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%.
Trans Nzoia
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Busia
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall.
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.
Embu/Meru
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Kakamega
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep. We saw it in Malava.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Bungoma
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive.
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%.
Nakuru
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance.
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%.
Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.
Overall Picture
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35).
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43).
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).
-
Source of this?
Mombasa has 30% Kamba. Confirmed via many sources.
I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya
County Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA
National Vote Share
Thanks for this. A few comments:
1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11
- I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground. Wrong. It's firmly in the opposition. Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.
- Taita Taveta: You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta. Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently. Firmly in the opposition
- Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground. Firmly in opposition. WSR should not expect more than 10%.
- Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground. These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition. With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.
- Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county. Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner. Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.
- Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there. Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.
Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%.
And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together.
Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.
In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October. Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
2009 census - there was report that had top 3 tribes in each county.
Kambas are few...roughly 15%...mostly Changamwe and Bamburi
I think I pasted that data in MOASS of 2022
Mombasa ni kama nairobi; Mijikenda 30%; 15% each for kamba, luo, luhya; followed by Swahilis; kikuyu & others.
Mombasa has been ODM zone because Mijikenda+Kavirondo+Swahili is easily 65%
Source of this?
Mombasa has 30% Kamba. Confirmed via many sources.
I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya
County Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA
National Vote Share
Thanks for this. A few comments:
1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11
- I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground. Wrong. It's firmly in the opposition. Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.
- Taita Taveta: You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta. Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently. Firmly in the opposition
- Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground. Firmly in opposition. WSR should not expect more than 10%.
- Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground. These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition. With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.
- Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county. Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner. Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.
- Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there. Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.
Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%.
And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together.
Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.
In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October. Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna
MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess
Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner
-
All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%
Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis
Kajiado
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant.
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%.
Taita Taveta
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Lamu
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing.
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%.
Trans Nzoia
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Busia
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall.
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.
Embu/Meru
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Kakamega
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep. We saw it in Malava.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Bungoma
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive.
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%.
Nakuru
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance.
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%.
Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.
Overall Picture
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35).
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43).
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).
-
Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.99422-6/797339526_1126706716349696_4606078724105722649_n.png?stp=dst-jpg_tt6&cstp=mx1024x1536&ctp=s1024x1536&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=poE67vI95ZkQ7kNvwHEHlQ6&_nc_oc=Adpe-4CR8BKfvnUrsxYyecbSNpOTqlB47dkSVvZCLrlSip8OwuPLNVEYyiCGXDwJkWAij_R5sBvDZ-kpMItiWRUg&_nc_zt=14&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&_nc_gid=foGtyUBbqzSWNwW3aXjQzA&_nc_ss=7b2a8&oh=00_AQLQlvcv8HVbptE_t4b9M7PauTq6VmSixDffPzMBVf5n_A&oe=6AAFDE8D)
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OK.
All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%
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In which race did he take part? :o
Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!
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He was the lead, the brain, and power behind this economic miracle. Start planning early and rake money in 2029!
In which race did he take part? :o
Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!
President William Ruto successfully secured Nairobi's bid to host the 2029 World Athletics Championships by issuing a personal guarantee to the World Athletics Council that the Kenyan government would meet all financial and infrastructural requirements.
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Hitler's sycophancy is worse than Wamunyoro and his Mlimaism.
-
Yes.
Ruto's only solid base is basically Kalenjin. Then NFD where opposition has zero game - Ruto is better than MATUSA where he faces serious challenge from DCP.
Luo and Mijikenda I see Ruto doing well but not the 80-90% level of Raila. Maybe 70%.
Gusii will depend on Matiang'i - mainly how the opposition handles him. The cerelac buffon needs to be mollycoddled - propped up as coalition chairman or super-CS if not PM. I think he is a braindead fool. Handle him well - and he takes the ground. Like Kamba and Kalonzo.
The big exagerrations are Luhya and MKE. Ruto hana kitu huko. Quoting ati Malava 50-50 - without accounting for the heavy Ol Kalou-level GoK mobilization - even if you ignore the ukora the resource mobilization alone you can't scale nationally. Ditto Embu.
Luhya is by default Sifuna's to lose - not Ruto's. Unless Sifuna gets a heart attack or a major fuckup - Linda will sweep it. I don't see Sifuna as stupid - say like Madvd or Matiang'i - he will not squander the Linda wave. Luos - Orengo, Babu - will get big titles - party leader, chairman - so long as Sifuna is PORK candidate. It looks like Luo ego trip - Look, you need us because Ruto has Oburu.
What Ruto has is a full-house of noisemakers - chihuahuas like Simba Arati and Osoro; Ayub Savulas - and all setting Ruto up by demanding DPORK. What happens once Soprano is confirmed or Mbadi is picked?
So first, the dodgy numbers.
Then incumbency PENALTY. While "GenZ" is a phantom, you keep saying Ruto did the hard work in 2022-25 and now it's harvest time - but I don't see it. Those TIFA polls saying 65% folks are poorer (at least in their heads) - should be a key metric in your analysis. Not the number of flashy new highrise apartments.
All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%
Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis
Kajiado
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant.
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%.
Taita Taveta
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Lamu
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing.
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%.
Trans Nzoia
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Busia
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall.
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.
Embu/Meru
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Kakamega
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep. We saw it in Malava.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Bungoma
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive.
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%.
Nakuru
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance.
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%.
Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.
Overall Picture
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35).
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43).
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).
-
Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.
Yes.
Ruto's only solid base is basically Kalenjin. Then NFD where opposition has zero game - Ruto is better than MATUSA where he faces serious challenge from DCP.
Luo and Mijikenda I see Ruto doing well but not the 80-90% level of Raila. Maybe 70%.
Gusii will depend on Matiang'i - mainly how the opposition handles him. The cerelac buffon needs to be mollycoddled - propped up as coalition chairman or super-CS if not PM. I think he is a braindead fool. Handle him well - and he takes the ground. Like Kamba and Kalonzo.
The big exagerrations are Luhya and MKE. Ruto hana kitu huko. Quoting ati Malava 50-50 - without accounting for the heavy Ol Kalou-level GoK mobilization - even if you ignore the ukora the resource mobilization alone you can't scale nationally. Ditto Embu.
Luhya is by default Sifuna's to lose - not Ruto's. Unless Sifuna gets a heart attack or a major fuckup - Linda will sweep it. I don't see Sifuna as stupid - say like Madvd or Matiang'i - he will not squander the Linda wave. Luos - Orengo, Babu - will get big titles - party leader, chairman - so long as Sifuna is PORK candidate. It looks like Luo ego trip - Look, you need us because Ruto has Oburu.
What Ruto has is a full-house of noisemakers - chihuahuas like Simba Arati and Osoro; Ayub Savulas - and all setting Ruto up by demanding DPORK. What happens once Soprano is confirmed or Mbadi is picked?
So first, the dodgy numbers.
Then incumbency PENALTY. While "GenZ" is a phantom, you keep saying Ruto did the hard work in 2022-25 and now it's harvest time - but I don't see it. Those TIFA polls saying 65% folks are poorer (at least in their heads) - should be a key metric in your analysis. Not the number of flashy new highrise apartments.
All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%
Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis
Kajiado
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant.
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%.
Taita Taveta
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Lamu
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing.
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%.
Trans Nzoia
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Busia
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall.
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.
Embu/Meru
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Kakamega
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep. We saw it in Malava.
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%.
Bungoma
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive.
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%.
Nakuru
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance.
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%.
Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.
Overall Picture
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35).
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43).
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).
-
You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.
If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.
Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.
You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.
I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.
Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.
-
You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005
Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes
You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.
If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.
Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.
You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.
I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.
Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.
-
Looking forward to it.
Professor Mutahi Ngunyi - the real MOAS inventor - got it wrong in 2022. Well, barely.
Hitler - Ruto's absolute sycophant - got Trump vs Kamala wrong in 2024. He deeply understands US politics like you do Kenya's. He could see the signs but was emotionally invested in Biden/Kamala. We mocked him here for the loss.
Pundits can be wrong too.
You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005
Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes
You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.
If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.
Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.
You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.
I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.
Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.
-
Kamisi agrees with RV Pundit.
Saboti MP Amisi: Linda Mwananchi will soon become a village outfit
Saturday 19th September, 2026 12:24 PM
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/saboti-mp-amisi-linda-mwananchi-will-soon-become-a-village-outfit
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Amisi asks Linda members to join his Otonglo party.
Amisi urges Linda Mwananchi supporters to join PRM party
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/amisi-urges-linda-mwananchi-supporters-to-join-prm-party
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Real MOASS inventor is Charles Hornsby who made one in 1992 and has been right
We did one here with prof Namwamba in 2007 arguing for long
Who I suspect is yule mzee
Geography professor
Looking forward to it.
Professor Mutahi Ngunyi - the real MOAS inventor - got it wrong in 2022. Well, barely.
Hitler - Ruto's absolute sycophant - got Trump vs Kamala wrong in 2024. He deeply understands US politics like you do Kenya's. He could see the signs but was emotionally invested in Biden/Kamala. We mocked him here for the loss.
Pundits can be wrong too.
You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005
Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes
You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.
If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.
Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.
You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.
I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.
Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.
-
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
....
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?
-
Of course. So as to cause havoc in the opposition. Kalonzo will this way be forced to be on the ballot. The y know his ego is big. They know that even coming 2nd is good enough for Kalonzo. He will be satisfied with that. A man that cannot inspire any political crowd.
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?
-
Aside from maybe kikuyus and kenyans who calculate tribal maths - I doubt Kalonzo has real support. So this poll looked paid for. But half truth half glass
Of course. So as to cause havoc in the opposition. Kalonzo will this way be forced to be on the ballot. The y know his ego is big. They know that even coming 2nd is good enough for Kalonzo. He will be satisfied with that. A man that cannot inspire any political crowd.
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?
-
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters .... nye nye nye!
So what happened to Mizani poll in Ol Kalou? Eti 63% vs 34%???? We know who won that election. How would Mizani get it so wrong? I know the answer: Govt mouthpiece. :s_laugh: :tongue:
We know the media house that owns Mizani Africa and therefore who Mizani serves
-
Kumbe Kumbe stop posting silly propaganda. Find real mizani
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters .... nye nye nye!
So what happened to Mizani poll in Ol Kalou? Eti 63% vs 34%???? We know who won that election. How would Mizani get it so wrong? I know the answer: Govt mouthpiece. :s_laugh: :tongue:
We know the media house that owns Mizani Africa and therefore who Mizani serves
-
This is not the reason. Why would Ruto want this nightmare scenario?
RV Pundit has been telling us about Wiper-DCP merger and I didn't believe him, but it makes sense now.
Kalonzo 27% is Kamba + Mlima. You can see RiggyG has only 4% in the poll.
I have been telling Pundit RiggyG isn't incapable of love - he just chooses to canvass for Kalonzo strategically.
This means Ruto's spanner boy Nyoro cannot wait for April - when the opposition picks Kalonzo-Sifuna - to inherit RiggyG's vote. Hata hio 3% yake akijoin Ruto hapati.
Ruto has fewer moves left than opposition:-
-If he picks the Dwarf - he loses the few Luhya left and some Luo.
-He picks Madvd or Oparanya - he loses Dwarf's Tharaka 2% and most Luo - and still gets floored badly by Sifuna.
-He picks Mbadi - loses Luhya and Tharaka.
RV Pundit and the Ruto choir have accepted Mlima is gone. They took time to come around on MKE - after insisting for 2 years that the big river would join the tributary.
They will soon accept Luhya is gone-gone - as soon as Sifuna's party is launched and people stampede there. All those useless Waluke, Salasya, Wanyonyi - they can see the writing on the wall. Caleb Amisi and his Otonglo party are bad jokes. Even Babu Owino is likely to see the light - and fold his Mwananchi tissue paper - unless he is a FOOL - to split the vote and lose to Sakaja or Gakuya. Likely Sakaja runs with Kasarani MP Rony Karauri the moneybag. Babu-Gakuya can crash them.
Kalonzo's Ukombozi Alliance...
I see 2 possibilities -
i. It has Uhuru+RiggyG's blessing - very likely - as it already roped in Orengo and his Himalayan ego 🙂 - the jaduong seems very amused to inherit Uhuru's seat as chairman.
In this case the only people left are Babu Owino and Sifuna. Nyoro seems as excited as Orengo to hang around Uhuru - while obviously Matiang'i is still Uhuru's puppet. Pundit says Sifuna is a baby - but this Nyoro fellow is the real baby attempting a sprint before crawling. If Nyoro runs PPK will have 0.1% like Orengo SDP in 2002.
ii. It's just desperate Kaloi's thing - unlikely but possible. Kalonzo lacks financial-political muscle to run such an outfit. And being married to DCP means Wiper can't make big moves without consulting RiggyG.
It's idiotic to have 2022 Azimio-style ticket for joint PORK. UDA 2022 model is better. Or TNA 2013. Where PORK-DPORK ticket is say Wiper - but the rest of the downstream ballots are zoned. Wiper with 30 MPs can't bully anyone after compromising manys seats - like Nairobi governor, senator - for DCP and Linda.
I expect Sifuna and his Natembeyas to hit the Mulembe ground hard. They must deliver Luhya yote + ODM 70% - to match Kalonzo-RiggyG. This is more likely to be the aim & affect of the poll. They launch Linda Asili next week.
Of course. So as to cause havoc in the opposition. Kalonzo will this way be forced to be on the ballot. The y know his ego is big. They know that even coming 2nd is good enough for Kalonzo. He will be satisfied with that. A man that cannot inspire any political crowd.
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?
-
Kumbe Kumbe stop posting silly propaganda. Find real mizani
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters .... nye nye nye!
So what happened to Mizani poll in Ol Kalou? Eti 63% vs 34%???? We know who won that election. How would Mizani get it so wrong? I know the answer: Govt mouthpiece. :s_laugh: :tongue:
We know the media house that owns Mizani Africa and therefore who Mizani serves
Continue calling the Bukusu names. This time next year you will do be drinking musik under your bed. You won't even bring yourself to log into Nipate. :zen:
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You think Bukusu sacco ya Sifuna will lead kenya. Kumbe kumbe just know Ruto will beat you like Isukuti drums.
Continue calling the Bukusu names. This time next year you will do be drinking musik under your bed. You won't even bring yourself to log into Nipate. :zen:
-
Well dont get carried by MIzani poll - it look paid for by Kalonzo. Word on streets. He is doing all this ukombozi thing alone.
This is not the reason. Why would Ruto want this nightmare scenario?
RV Pundit has been telling us about Wiper-DCP merger and I didn't believe him, but it makes sense now.
Kalonzo 27% is Kamba + Mlima. You can see RiggyG has only 4% in the poll.
I have been telling Pundit RiggyG isn't incapable of love - he just chooses to canvass for Kalonzo strategically.
This means Ruto's spanner boy Nyoro cannot wait for April - when the opposition picks Kalonzo-Sifuna - to inherit RiggyG's vote. Hata hio 3% yake akijoin Ruto hapati.
Ruto has fewer moves left than opposition:-
-If he picks the Dwarf - he loses the few Luhya left and some Luo.
-He picks Madvd or Oparanya - he loses Dwarf's Tharaka 2% and most Luo - and still gets floored badly by Sifuna.
-He picks Mbadi - loses Luhya and Tharaka.
RV Pundit and the Ruto choir have accepted Mlima is gone. They took time to come around on MKE - after insisting for 2 years that the big river would join the tributary.
They will soon accept Luhya is gone-gone - as soon as Sifuna's party is launched and people stampede there. All those useless Waluke, Salasya, Wanyonyi - they can see the writing on the wall. Caleb Amisi and his Otonglo party are bad jokes. Even Babu Owino is likely to see the light - and fold his Mwananchi tissue paper - unless he is a FOOL - to split the vote and lose to Sakaja or Gakuya. Likely Sakaja runs with Kasarani MP Rony Karauri the moneybag. Babu-Gakuya can crash them.
Kalonzo's Ukombozi Alliance...
I see 2 possibilities -
i. It has Uhuru+RiggyG's blessing - very likely - as it already roped in Orengo and his Himalayan ego 🙂 - the jaduong seems very amused to inherit Uhuru's seat as chairman.
In this case the only people left are Babu Owino and Sifuna. Nyoro seems as excited as Orengo to hang around Uhuru - while obviously Matiang'i is still Uhuru's puppet. Pundit says Sifuna is a baby - but this Nyoro fellow is the real baby attempting a sprint before crawling. If Nyoro runs PPK will have 0.1% like Orengo SDP in 2002.
ii. It's just desperate Kaloi's thing - unlikely but possible. Kalonzo lacks financial-political muscle to run such an outfit. And being married to DCP means Wiper can't make big moves without consulting RiggyG.
It's idiotic to have 2022 Azimio-style ticket for joint PORK. UDA 2022 model is better. Or TNA 2013. Where PORK-DPORK ticket is say Wiper - but the rest of the downstream ballots are zoned. Wiper with 30 MPs can't bully anyone after compromising manys seats - like Nairobi governor, senator - for DCP and Linda.
I expect Sifuna and his Natembeyas to hit the Mulembe ground hard. They must deliver Luhya yote + ODM 70% - to match Kalonzo-RiggyG. This is more likely to be the aim & affect of the poll. They launch Linda Asili next week.
Of course. So as to cause havoc in the opposition. Kalonzo will this way be forced to be on the ballot. The y know his ego is big. They know that even coming 2nd is good enough for Kalonzo. He will be satisfied with that. A man that cannot inspire any political crowd.
Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?
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:D :D :D
Leave our man to continue to dream. He has not even noticed only Kales on this forum suppor Ruto.
Continue calling the Bukusu names. This time next year you will do be drinking musik under your bed. You won't even bring yourself to log into Nipate. :zen:
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Mimi ni sifuna euphoria imefika wapi. Hii forum ni watu 10 tu. We need 5 to win. Tuko 3...mpaka oldun.
:D :D :D
Leave our man to continue to dream. He has not even noticed only Kales on this forum suppor Ruto.
Continue calling the Bukusu names. This time next year you will do be drinking musik under your bed. You won't even bring yourself to log into Nipate. :zen: