MOASS 2027 mega thread

[RV Pundit]

I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya

County   Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa   Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale   Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi   Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River   Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu   Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta   Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa   Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit   Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo   Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru   Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi   Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu   Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua   Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri   Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga   Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga   Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu   Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui   Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos   Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni   Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana   Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot   Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu   Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia   Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu   Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet   Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi   Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo   Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia   Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru   Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok   Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado   Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho   Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet   Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega   Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga   Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma   Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia   Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya   Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu   Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay   Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori   Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi   Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA   
National Vote Share   

Thanks for this.  A few comments:

1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11

 - I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground.  Wrong.  It's firmly in the opposition.  Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.   

 - Taita Taveta:  You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta.  Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently.  Firmly in the opposition

 - Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground.  Firmly in opposition.   WSR should not expect more than 10%.

 - Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground.  These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition.   With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.

 - Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county.   Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner.  Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.

 - Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there.  Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.


Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%. 

And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together. 

Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.

In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October.  Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna

MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess

Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner

[RV Pundit]

Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA  ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis

Kajiado 
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant. 
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%. 

Taita Taveta 
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Lamu 
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing. 
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%. 

Trans Nzoia 
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Busia 
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall. 
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.

Embu/Meru 
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Kakamega 
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep.  We saw it in Malava.

Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Bungoma 
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive. 
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%. 

Nakuru 
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance. 
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%. 


Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.


Overall Picture 
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35). 
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43). 
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50). 

[Tactician]

Source of this?

Mombasa has 30% Kamba.  Confirmed via many sources.

I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya

County   Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa   Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale   Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi   Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River   Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu   Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta   Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa   Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit   Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo   Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru   Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi   Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu   Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua   Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri   Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga   Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga   Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu   Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui   Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos   Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni   Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana   Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot   Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu   Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia   Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu   Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet   Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi   Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo   Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia   Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru   Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok   Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado   Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho   Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet   Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega   Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga   Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma   Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia   Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya   Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu   Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay   Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori   Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi   Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA   
National Vote Share   

Thanks for this.  A few comments:

1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11

 - I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground.  Wrong.  It's firmly in the opposition.  Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.   

 - Taita Taveta:  You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta.  Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently.  Firmly in the opposition

 - Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground.  Firmly in opposition.   WSR should not expect more than 10%.

 - Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground.  These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition.   With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.

 - Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county.   Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner.  Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.

 - Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there.  Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.


Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%. 

And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together. 

Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.

In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October.  Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna

MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess

Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner

[RV Pundit]

2009 census - there was report that had top 3 tribes in each county.
Kambas are few...roughly 15%...mostly Changamwe and Bamburi
I think I pasted that data in MOASS of 2022

Mombasa ni kama nairobi; Mijikenda 30%; 15% each for kamba, luo, luhya; followed by Swahilis; kikuyu & others.

Mombasa has been ODM zone because Mijikenda+Kavirondo+Swahili is easily 65%

Source of this?

Mombasa has 30% Kamba.  Confirmed via many sources.

I dont think you're serious.
I dont think this deserve a serious response.
What I can help you is tribal composition of kenya

County   Ethnic_Composition
Mombasa   Mijikenda 30%, Luo 16%, Luhya 15%, Akamba 17%, others 20%
Kwale   Mijikenda 83%, Akamba, Luhya & others 17%
Kilifi   Mijikenda 87%, Akamba, Swahili & others 5%
Tana_River   Mijikenda 28%, Orma 25%, Wardei 20%, Somali 15%
Lamu   Swahili 30%, Gikuyu 25%, Mijikenda & others 45%
Taita_Taveta   Taita 63%, Akamba, Taveta & others
Garissa   Somali (Ogaden) 80%, others & Akamba 20%
Wajir   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Mandera   Somali 98%, Gabra & others 2%
Marsabit   Gabra 28%, Borana, Rendile, Burji & others 5%
Isiolo   Borana 37%, Somali, Samburu, Turkana, Meru & Gikuyu 10%
Meru   Meru 94%, Gikuyu, Akamba 2%
Tharaka_Nithi   Meru 55%, Tharaka 40%, Mbeere & others 5%
Embu   Embu 50%, Mbeere 35%, Gikuyu 7%, Akamba 5%, others 3%
Nyandarua   Gikuyu 96%, Luhya & others 4%
Nyeri   Gikuyu 94%, Meru & others 5%
Kirinyaga   Gikuyu 95%, others (Akamba, Embu) 5%
Muranga   Gikuyu 94%, Akamba & others 5%
Kiambu   Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%, Luhya & others 13%
Kitui   Akamba 97%, Tharaka & others 3%
Machakos   Akamba 91%, Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
Makueni   Akamba 95%, others 5%
Turkana   Turkana 94%, others & Luhya 6%
West_Pokot   Kalenjin 95% (Pokot), Luhya & Turkana & others 5%
Samburu   Samburu 79%, Turkana, Gikuyu & others 21%
Trans_Nzoia   Luhya 52%, Kalenjin 30%, Gikuyu & others 10%
Uasin_Gishu   Kalenjin 58%, Luhya 20%, Gikuyu & others 20%
Elgeyo_Marakwet   Kalenjin 93% (Keiyo/Marakwet), Luhya & others 5%
Nandi   Kalenjin 77%, Luhya 20%, Luo & others 2%
Baringo   Kalenjin 88%, Ilchamus/Njemps 8%, Gikuyu & others 5%
Laikipia   Gikuyu 63%, Maasai 20%, Kalenjin 6% & others 3%
Nakuru   Gikuyu 52%, Kalenjin 37%, others 18%
Narok   Maasai 52%, Kalenjin 35%, Gikuyu 10%, others
Kajiado   Maasai 44%, Gikuyu 25%, Akamba & others
Kericho   Kalenjin 88%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 13.5%
Bomet   Kalenjin 96%, Gusii, Luo & others 4%
Kakamega   Luhya 93%, Luo, Gikuyu & others 7%
Vihiga   Luhya 96%, Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%
Bungoma   Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%, Teso & others 5%
Busia   Luhya 57%, Iteso 30%, Luo & others 13%
Siaya   Luo 95%, Luhya & others 5%
Kisumu   Luo 89%, Luhya 6%, others 5%
Homa_Bay   Luo 87%, Suba 8%, Gusii & others 5%
Migori   Luo 60%, Kuria 37%, Luhya & others 3%
Kisii   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nyamira   Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3%
Nairobi   Kikuyu 25%, Akamba 15%, Luo 15%, Luhya 15%, others 30%
TOTAL / KENYA   
National Vote Share   

Thanks for this.  A few comments:

1) Counties by candidate: You have given WSR 24, Opposition 12 and Battleground 11

 - I see you have placed Kajiado in battleground.  Wrong.  It's firmly in the opposition.  Kamba + Kikuyu votes alone are already a majority in Kajiado.   

 - Taita Taveta:  You have placed it in battle ground - yet the Kamba voters there are even more than the Taveta.  Hence the reason why RAO was winning there consistently.  Firmly in the opposition

 - Embu/Meru: Again placed in battleground.  Firmly in opposition.   WSR should not expect more than 10%.

 - Bungoma and Trans Nzioa - placed in battleground.  These were battle ground counties in 2022 when Rao with his Luhya alliance was in opposition.   With Sifuna on the ticket, these are now hardly battleground but firmly in Sifuna corner.

 - Mombasa - Kambas are the second largest tribe in the county.   Yet you have placed it firmly in WSR corner.  Add the urban dynamics and this is a firmly battleground territory.

 - Kwale County - Kambas are 30% of the voting block there.  Another battleground - yet you have placed it in WSR territory.


Even with these anomalies, WSR still cannot hit 50%. 

And we haven't added the mega-factor in this - Opposition coming together. 

Best simulation will come in 6 moinths - around March/April 2027 when the dust settles regarding opposition unity + WSR running mate.

In the meantime, let's enjoy the high fuel prices that are about to hit us from October.  Of cos this is all Uhuru's fault as he is the one adding taxes on fuel so that he can sponsor Sifuna

MOAS update for Sept 2023
We are still watching Sifuna...
Ndidi has joined the fray...but still early to include him in MOASS.
It likely DCP will merge with Kalonzo...
That will give Kalonzo big jump to 35%
Uhuru & his poodles - Matiangi is on the ropes - Ruto is resurgent in Gusii as Arati & ODM Gusii disengage from local Matiangi mess

Top-line metrics: 24.7M registered voters, 16.5M projected turnout (59%)
National vote share: Ruto 48.3%, Gachagua 24.3%, Kalonzo 11.2%, Sifuna 11.1%, Others 5.1%
Counties won: Ruto 32, Gachagua 9, Kalonzo 3, Matiangi 2, Sifuna 1
Ruto's vote share by region: from 89% in North Eastern down to just 5% in Central
Every one of the 47 counties, grouped by real region and color-coded by projected winner

[Nowayhaha]

All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%

Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA  ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis

Kajiado 
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant. 
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%. 

Taita Taveta 
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Lamu 
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing. 
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%. 

Trans Nzoia 
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Busia 
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall. 
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.

Embu/Meru 
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Kakamega 
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep.  We saw it in Malava.

Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Bungoma 
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive. 
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%. 

Nakuru 
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance. 
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%. 


Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.


Overall Picture 
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35). 
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43). 
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!

[RV Pundit]

OK.

All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%

[Kadudu]

In which race did he take part?

Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

He was the lead, the brain, and power behind this economic miracle. Start planning early and rake money in 2029!

In which race did he take part?

Ruto wins on both sides; tribal lineup or development. It has been crazy four years for Kenya and winning world athletics championship has simply changed the landscape. You can't win against the brain of WSR. The man is simply on another level!

President William Ruto successfully secured Nairobi's bid to host the 2029 World Athletics Championships by issuing a personal guarantee to the World Athletics Council that the Kenyan government would meet all financial and infrastructural requirements.

[Fish Mooney]

Hitler's sycophancy is worse than Wamunyoro and his Mlimaism.

[Fish Mooney]

Yes.

Ruto's only solid base is basically Kalenjin. Then NFD where opposition has zero game - Ruto is better than MATUSA where he faces serious challenge from DCP.

Luo and Mijikenda I see Ruto doing well but not the 80-90% level of Raila. Maybe 70%.

Gusii will depend on Matiang'i - mainly how the opposition handles him. The cerelac buffon needs to be mollycoddled - propped up as coalition chairman or super-CS if not PM. I think he is a braindead fool. Handle him well - and he takes the ground. Like Kamba and Kalonzo.

The big exagerrations are Luhya and MKE. Ruto hana kitu huko. Quoting ati Malava 50-50 - without accounting for the heavy Ol Kalou-level GoK mobilization - even if you ignore the ukora the resource mobilization alone you can't scale nationally. Ditto Embu.

Luhya is by default Sifuna's to lose - not Ruto's. Unless Sifuna gets a heart attack or a major fuckup - Linda will sweep it. I don't see Sifuna as stupid - say like Madvd or Matiang'i - he will not squander the Linda wave. Luos - Orengo, Babu - will get big titles - party leader, chairman - so long as Sifuna is PORK candidate. It looks like Luo ego trip - Look, you need us because Ruto has Oburu.

What Ruto has is a full-house of noisemakers - chihuahuas like Simba Arati and Osoro; Ayub Savulas - and all setting Ruto up by demanding DPORK. What happens once Soprano is confirmed or Mbadi is picked?

So first, the dodgy numbers.
Then incumbency PENALTY. While "GenZ" is a phantom, you keep saying Ruto did the hard work in 2022-25 and now it's harvest time - but I don't see it. Those TIFA polls saying 65% folks are poorer (at least in their heads) - should be a key metric in your analysis. Not the number of flashy new highrise apartments.

All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%

Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA  ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis

Kajiado 
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant. 
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%. 

Taita Taveta 
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Lamu 
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing. 
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%. 

Trans Nzoia 
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Busia 
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall. 
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.

Embu/Meru 
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Kakamega 
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep.  We saw it in Malava.

Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Bungoma 
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive. 
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%. 

Nakuru 
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance. 
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%. 


Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.


Overall Picture 
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35). 
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43). 
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).

[RV Pundit]

Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.

Yes.

Ruto's only solid base is basically Kalenjin. Then NFD where opposition has zero game - Ruto is better than MATUSA where he faces serious challenge from DCP.

Luo and Mijikenda I see Ruto doing well but not the 80-90% level of Raila. Maybe 70%.

Gusii will depend on Matiang'i - mainly how the opposition handles him. The cerelac buffon needs to be mollycoddled - propped up as coalition chairman or super-CS if not PM. I think he is a braindead fool. Handle him well - and he takes the ground. Like Kamba and Kalonzo.

The big exagerrations are Luhya and MKE. Ruto hana kitu huko. Quoting ati Malava 50-50 - without accounting for the heavy Ol Kalou-level GoK mobilization - even if you ignore the ukora the resource mobilization alone you can't scale nationally. Ditto Embu.

Luhya is by default Sifuna's to lose - not Ruto's. Unless Sifuna gets a heart attack or a major fuckup - Linda will sweep it. I don't see Sifuna as stupid - say like Madvd or Matiang'i - he will not squander the Linda wave. Luos - Orengo, Babu - will get big titles - party leader, chairman - so long as Sifuna is PORK candidate. It looks like Luo ego trip - Look, you need us because Ruto has Oburu.

What Ruto has is a full-house of noisemakers - chihuahuas like Simba Arati and Osoro; Ayub Savulas - and all setting Ruto up by demanding DPORK. What happens once Soprano is confirmed or Mbadi is picked?

So first, the dodgy numbers.
Then incumbency PENALTY. While "GenZ" is a phantom, you keep saying Ruto did the hard work in 2022-25 and now it's harvest time - but I don't see it. Those TIFA polls saying 65% folks are poorer (at least in their heads) - should be a key metric in your analysis. Not the number of flashy new highrise apartments.

All these counties you have stated here will be won by Opposition In almost all Ruto will hardly even get 20%

Battle-ground with BIG CAVEAT ON SIFUNA  ------------ tactician please upgrade your analysis

Kajiado 
Three Maasai constituencies vs two cosmopolitan (North & East). Maasai bloc ~45% behind Ruto/UDA due to Amboseli and Magadi projects. UDA already won an MCA seat. ODM holds ~10% in North & East. Ole Metito’s crew dominant. 
Verdict: Broad base 55% vs Opposition 45%. 

Taita Taveta 
Taita ~63%, plus Akamba, Taveta, others. UDA and ODM both strong. Wiper controls one constituency. Governor is independent (Linda). Taita politics flow with Coast, not Ukambani. If Kalonzo runs, opposition edges slightly. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Lamu 
Bajuni now united pro‑UDA/ANC, giving Ruto a solid anchor. Kikuyus in Lamu West ~35–40%. KK alliance collapsed, but UDA‑ODM alliance secures ~60%. Dangote refinery boosts Ruto’s standing. 
Verdict: Broad base 60% vs Opposition 40%. 

Trans Nzoia 
Ruto starts with ~30% Kalenjin. Opposition can consolidate ~40% Luhya + 10% Gusii/Kikuyu. Ford‑K, UDA, ODM all active. County split down the middle. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Busia 
Nilotic Iteso (~30–40%) lean UDA-ODM. Add ~10% Luo largely to Broad-based. Luhya ~50%, opposition ~70% of that. But Iteso tilt and Luo split push Ruto higher. Broad base ~65% overall. 
Verdict: Broad base 65% vs Opposition 35%.

Embu/Meru 
Baseline ~50‑50. Upper zones lean opposition. Lower zones (Mbeere, Igembe, Tigania) back Kindiki. Kiraitu supports Kindiki in Imenti. Tharaka Nithi solid homeground for Ruto. 
Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Kakamega 
Heart of Luhya vote. ODM relied on Oparanya, but grip weakened. Sifuna capped ~50%. Broad-based networks of Oparanya, Barasa, MaDVD, and UDA structures. Clan loyalties fragment vote. Neither side can sweep.  We saw it in Malava.

Verdict: Broad base 50% vs Opposition 50%. 

Bungoma 
UDA ~15–20% (Kalenjin, Tachoni, Iteso). Bukusu ~80% Luhya vote, opposition ~70% of that. Despite UDA’s network, Bukusu bloc decisive. 
Verdict: Broad base 40% vs Opposition 60%. 

Nakuru 
Kalenjin ~35% + Luo/Maasai give Ruto ~40%. Kikuyu + Gusii ~55%. Luhya + Turkana ~5% split. Kikuyu/Gusii bloc tips balance. 
Verdict: Broad base 43% vs Opposition 57%. 


Biggest Uknown is basically SIFUNA. So far I dont see mainstream buy in. Until you see MCs & Mps moving from UDA-ODM joggernaut to his yet uknown party then it too early to tell. Our opinion polls dont help with their silly data.


Overall Picture 
Broad base edge: Kajiado (55–45), Lamu (60–40), Busia (65–35). 
Opposition edge: Bungoma (60–40), Nakuru (57–43). 
Balanced battlegrounds: Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Embu/Meru, Kakamega (all ~50–50).

[Fish Mooney]

You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.

If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.

Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.

You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.

I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.

Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.

[RV Pundit]

You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005

Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes

You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.

If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.

Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.

You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.

I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.

Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.

[Fish Mooney]

Looking forward to it.

Professor Mutahi Ngunyi - the real MOAS inventor - got it wrong in 2022. Well, barely.

Hitler - Ruto's absolute sycophant - got Trump vs Kamala wrong in 2024. He deeply understands US politics like you do Kenya's. He could see the signs but was emotionally invested in Biden/Kamala. We mocked him here for the loss.

Pundits can be wrong too.

You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005

Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes

You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.

If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.

Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.

You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.

I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.

Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.

[Fish Mooney]

Kamisi agrees with RV Pundit.

Saboti MP Amisi: Linda Mwananchi will soon become a village outfit
Saturday 19th September, 2026 12:24 PM
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/saboti-mp-amisi-linda-mwananchi-will-soon-become-a-village-outfit

[Fish Mooney]

Amisi asks Linda members to join his Otonglo party.

Amisi urges Linda Mwananchi supporters to join PRM party
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/amisi-urges-linda-mwananchi-supporters-to-join-prm-party

[RV Pundit]

Real MOASS inventor is Charles Hornsby who made one in 1992 and has been right
We did one here with prof Namwamba in 2007 arguing for long
Who I suspect is yule mzee
Geography professor

Looking forward to it.

Professor Mutahi Ngunyi - the real MOAS inventor - got it wrong in 2022. Well, barely.

Hitler - Ruto's absolute sycophant - got Trump vs Kamala wrong in 2024. He deeply understands US politics like you do Kenya's. He could see the signs but was emotionally invested in Biden/Kamala. We mocked him here for the loss.

Pundits can be wrong too.

You cant teach me my job
I watch indicators and I update my excel
And I didnt start doing it now
Started in 2005

Look out for these changes in my next update - 10th of October
Sifuna is collapsing outside Bukusuland
Ndidi is coming up in mt kenya and will make a debut in MOASS
Kindiki is struggling (For now Ruto has dropped to 48% with Meru & Embu keeping him at 35%)
I dont see Kindiki surviving as DPORk unless his fortune changes

You don't need excel to see the fake columns. Remove Luhya and MKE from battleground. Ati Bungoma is a battleground where Ford-K was just crashed 70-30 by DAP-K. In Weta's home village.

If Ruto's GoK machine squeaks through by 1% - in a byelection - just know that's opposition zone.

Ol Kalou should worry you - Ruto's choir - for the BIG signal it sends to Luhya, Gusii and such - that Ruto takes for granted. He behaves really entitled in Luhya - to pull all ukora after pouring a gazillion goodies just to win over "neighbors". And you didn't even have Sifuna.

You cannot deny that Ruto runs a mean machine - so we know he did his best - and still couldn't hack it legitimately.

I have been scanning the punditsphere - none of the Manyoras seem to really get it. It's not just the vote Ruto lost in Ol Kalou. It's the unbeatable facade and narrative that development is what really matters. In fact: narrative collapse.

Ok
How about you do your own excel
So once again we compare
And see your losing streak extend to 20yrs.

[RV Pundit]

Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided

....

My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?

[Kadudu]

Of course. So as to cause havoc in the opposition. Kalonzo will this way be forced to be on the ballot. The y know his ego is big. They know that even coming 2nd is good enough for Kalonzo. He will be satisfied with that. A man that cannot inspire any political crowd.

Mizani africa are normally more credible pollsters

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: RUTO LEADS, KALONZO FOLLOWS, SIFUNA EMERGES THIRD
Mizani Africa’s September 2026 presidential preference poll places William Ruto at 38.7%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 27.5%. Edwin Sifuna ranks third at 13.2%, while Fred Matiang’i records 7.7%. The remaining candidates each register below 5%, and 5.0% of respondents are undecided
My comment - Kalonzo's numbers seem inflated?