Robina,
We had the Mbeere North by-election covering three wards, plus a repeat election in two wards for the MCA seats. UDA won—right in the political home of two heavyweights, JB Muturi and former Senator Lenny Kivuti.
Then came Malava, followed by another by-election months later, and UDA won again.
The problem with dishonest analyst like is a total lack of objectivity. It is nearly impossible to engage in an adult conversation with people who lack core political principles, objectivity, and dispassionate analysis.
The objective of political punditry is to GET IT RIGHT!
You're very months from becoming a witch like Nowayaha screaming every thread about 2002 and how Ruto is useless
We quickly accepted the Ol Kalou outcome and removed the Kikuyu vote from our baseline calculations.
The Murima East versus Murima West divide did not start with William Ruto. Kiraitu Murungi pioneered it in 2013 with his Bus Party (Alliance Party of Kenya), sweeping multiple seats. Kiraitu proved early on how effectively that regional strategy could perform.
While critics may dismiss Kithure Kindiki, he unequivocally belongs to Murima East and will comfortably sweep Tharaka Nithi.
Following Ol Kalou, we saw a shift of Kikuyu voters toward DCP, but DCP has failed to build momentum outside Kikuyus. Its influence remains confined to a few isolated figures Manyatta MP and Linturi in entire Mt Kenya east.
Crucially, Kindiki has now brought Kiraitu—the architect of the Murima East movement—into the fold. That is a major political shift, especially among the vote-rich Imenti sub-group in Meru.
Look at the broader layout in Meru and Embu: UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbariri leads the charge. All three governors in Murima East belong to UDA, alongside all three senators and virtually the entire parliamentary delegation bar one MP.
As for the Luhya political matrix, look at Edwin Sifuna: his coalition relies on three MPs who defected to DCP and one from Ford-Kenya (Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, who fell out with Moses Wetang'ula). Beyond that Sifuna has just taken Eugene Wamalwa DCP led by Natembeya wing and is running around minus ODM - Otsoti & Caleb
Now, over 40 MPs in Western are aligned with Ruto, and Musalia Mudavadi has formally merged his party into UDA. Even if you factor in standard political attrition and assume a 50% loss on the ground, Ruto effectively controls half of Western Kenya right now.
When it comes to picking a Deputy President running mate for 2027, Ruto still has a full year to play his cards.
Kindiki remains the most obvious and strategic choice—he keeps the coalition stable and doesn't upset the apple cart.
The play for Ruto and Kindiki is simple: quietly dangle and promise the DP slot to about five senior ODM figures. Let them engage in an internal civil war fighting over the seat, only for everyone to eventually realize that keeping a safe option like Kindiki in place for 2027 is the only logical compromise—setting up an open succession race in 2032 (*kila mtu 2032*).
We have already signaled to Moses Wetang'ula and Musalia Mudavadi to align their focus toward 2032. The ambitious ODM figures will get a strong dose of reality soon enough.
As for Fred Matiang'i, Ruto cannot offer him a Prime Cabinet Secretary role without deeply upsetting Mudavadi. Nor can he hand over the Speaker's seat, which would disrupt existing arrangements with Ford-Kenya and PAA.
What remains on the negotiation table for incoming ODM allies are legislative leverage positions: Majority Leadership, Chief Whip, and strategic committee chairmanships.
Matiang'i could at best be offered a single Cabinet Secretary position for himself if he crosses over. Otherwise, state anti-corruption mechanisms (EACC) will likely close in, and he could easily find himself facing prosecution.
Ultimately, Ruto's main tactical focus remains CHECKMATING the Mount Kenya heartland who enjoy 20-25% of the national vote.
Loud opposition figures like Sifuna are merely inflated balloons—easy enough to puncture when the full machinery of state craft kicks in.
Kalonzo ni mtu bure stuck with 8% of Ukambani.
