You are wrong on many aspects
Luo wont vote for Ruto 100% and even in the voting it will be marred by low voter turn out
Ruto wont get 100% Mijikenda -He faired pretty badly in 2022 . Actually a KANU 2002 will happen where he might even perform worse than he did in 2022.
Similarly in North Eastern Ruto performed poorly in 2022 compared to Uhuru in 2017 /2013 . Remember when we talk of North Eastern we mean Isiolo , Marsabit , Wajir , Mandera , Garissa and TanaRiver. That tells you its not possible for any side to win this 100 % . First between themselves there is Rivalry , tribal snd Clan rivalry secondly there is regional parties which hold sway .
As for the factors the 2 you mentioned are not
Biggest factors will be voter registration and voter turn out .
Economic factors already destroyed Rutos legitimacy
And forget the notion that Ruto can inherit Railas base . Even Raila in 2007 couldnt fully inherit Mois base . Kibaki won North Eastern and went toe to toe with Raila in Mijikenda , Kalonzo ran away with Kamba and Kibaki gave him a run of money there .
Now take into consideration Ruto has been considered a Villain for 20 years in Railas stronghold a person born 18 years ago eligible to vote will need a lot of brainwashing and convincing to do so . Reason Raila couldnt win in Mt Kenya even with Uhurus support .
If I give Ruto 100% Luo it is a tie 50-50.
If I add 100% Mijikenda Ruto wins by 52%
I think you are wrong asserting that Ruto cannot win.
In my eyes there are 2 big factors:
1. Opposition unity. If they break Ruto wins or run-off.
2. Iran war aka inflation. They have signed MOU but I see a high likelihood of round 3 showdown.
The rest of the game I think is largely settled.
You realise even giving Ruto 100 % of Luo , North Eastern and Mijikenda . Still he cant beat the 50 %
The truth is that he wont even get a third of that vote .
Mathematically speaking there is no way Ruto is making it back.
Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.
Malava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
prompt
show these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'