Like boycott the swearing in is another stupid idea

[patel]

Slowly by slowly Jubilee is looking like a confused animal. It should be euthanized and put out of misery.
The despots are clueless and out of touch now they are clinging to international support. Thanks Bryan for reminding Jubilee idiots that millions of Kenyan that support Baba are more than enough.

Nobody in intl circles will come to Raila defence if he swear himself.He is alone and isolated.Everyone will understand why Uhuru has to lock him up.

He has millions of Kenyan people supporting him.  Mta do?

[vooke]

I speculated that Baba would be sworn in as the President if the People’s Assembly, nothing but a shitty mock ceremony.

Last Tuesday, I watched Kiambu Senator mock the swearing in as comedy and play-acting... I’m glad Manyora now believes so.

The swearing in will not be treasonous by any stretch of imagination. It will at most symbolic and seeks to excite or energize the demoralized NASWA supporters while attempting to bait Jubilee into violence

Jubilee should forget it and act like it’s nothing. Ignoring Baba antics will be the most humiliating act.

[Fish Mooney]

Raila’s planned swearing-in on Tuesday is a self defeatist move
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001262602/raila-s-planned-swearing-in-on-tuesday-is-a-self-defeatist-move

By Daisy Maritim Maina | Published Sun, December 10th 2017 at 00:00, Updated December 9th 2017 at 19:26 GMT +3


National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga is increasingly becoming politically bankrupt. He is losing the game and could very well disappoint his diehard supporters. His political insolvency springs from a multitude of missteps and tactical miscalculations. But the main cause of his bankruptcy can be distilled into one word; ‘Mugabe-fication’. Just like the deposed Zimbabwean leader, the people who are taking him down are a small group known as the ‘Essentials.’ Let me elaborate.

Leaders do not work unilaterally, they do not rule alone. Borrowing from Bruce Mesquita and Alastair Smith in ‘The Dictator’s Handbook’, for any leader, the political landscape can be broken down into three groups of people: first, are the ‘Interchangables’ - this is the general populace, consisting of Raila’s six million voters.

Second are the ‘Influentials’; the group that actually chooses the leader. These are the 3,000 or so ODM party members who occasionally convene the National Delegates Conference to elect their party leader. Finally; the ‘Essentials’, the people with the power to overthrow the leader. This is the clique that surrounds Raila consisting of family, power brokers, Members of Parliament, key advisers and rich capitalists. And because Raila is not just an individual but a corporate entity, he has to regularly account to his critical shareholders - the ‘Essentials’. In the next five years, Raila’s survival in politics is dependent on this core group.

But here is why Raila’s band of ‘Essentials’ could leave him. First, holding onto the reins of power for far too long causes a generational succession jam. This inevitably results in a coup. Much as the promise of Caanan sounds good on paper, it is simply not viable. The ‘Essentials’ are not willing to be led on a journey of forty years, wandering around the desert in search of political paradise. They are impatient and disgruntled. Unlike Raila, they are young and still have a political future ahead of them. They will therefore forge alternative alliances or create their own political formations.

Secondly, a potential ruler never buys political loyalty, he only rents it. And there are two currencies for political loyalty; first is the promise of power and public office and second, monetary rewards. Raila is quickly running out of both. And this is precisely why he is politically bankrupt. He does not possess the hard currency required to purchase loyalty from key backers. Additionally, his lenders will not loan him a single cent more.

Raila is staring at five years in the political cold and his exasperated ‘Essentials’ know this is like a lifetime in politics. By 2022, Raila will have been out of government circulation for a decade, during which time, a new generation of nouveau riche ‘Essentials’ not allied to him or ODM would have emerged and consolidated power.

Without doubt, his erstwhile allies will soon cave into temptation of switching sides. Raila understands that attempting to swear himself in on December 12 will be a self-cannibilising move. He is therefore unlikely not go ahead with it because he is a politically bankrupt pragmatist whose bottom-line is to be in government. The question is, who will bail him out?

—The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University and a Research Fellow at Fort Hall School of Government. maritim.dc@gmail.com

[vooke]

NASWA is letting out on the fact that Baba will just be crowned People’s Assembly badass


How (I think) the People's Assembly will look like

1. Organization of NASA friendly counties to pass bills recognizing people's assemblies.

2. Create an organ (like an executive) that will oversee, lead and give direction concerning the activities of these assemblies. Complete with a cabinet.

3. At the top of this organ in (2) above, have the position of President.

Now, lets stop here briefly and think. Kenyatta University, as a matter of fact, has a president. The Law Society of Kenya has a president. Numerous other organizations in our country have presidents. As long as they are not sworn in as the President of the Republic of Kenya, they should not be in any trouble with the law. This could be the reason no one has been arrested and charged with treason. Are we together up to that point?

4. I doubt Raila is going to be sworn is as the President of the Republic of Kenya. I think he will be sworn as as the President of the People's Assembly of Kenya (or something of that sort). In which case Githu Muigai and his ilk will have to go hug a tree. Creative, right? I know!

5. By Friday last week, about 14 counties had adopted the People's Assembly.

Now here's the kicker.

Remember how the government went to great lengths to show that the electoral protests were a Luo problem? I know you do. But let's stop again briefly and put things into perspective.

In a sensitization address to the Sudanese diaspora after the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Dr. John Garang said he had an issue with the way the Khartoum government had kept referring to the civil war as the 'Southern Problem'. He asked, figuratively, "Kan zol ja gaid fi ragabti, munu yau mushkila fi sura de?" If someone comes and sits on your neck, who's the problem? The person being sat on or the person sitting on the other?

In essence, assuming it is only the Luo who protested, it did not mean that only the Luo had a problem. Electoral malpractice was/is not a Luo problem. It is the guy who has been 'sitting on our backs' that is the problem.

6. The People's Assembly will work against the notion that only the Luo have a problem with the way things are done. So far, Central is the only former province where NASA does not have People's Assembly adopted. Parts of Eastern are in, parts of North Eastern are in, it is likely that the entire Coast will be in, Western is in with both feet as is Nyanza, expectedly. Even parts of Rift Valley, believe it or not, are in. As for Nairobi, the Speaker seems to be under instructions to frustrate any efforts of bringing that People's Assembly bill to the floor of the Nairobi County Assembly.

So you see, the struggle against electoral malpractices is not a Luo problem. It is not even a Kamba problem or a Turkana problem. It is the problem of the guy 'sitting on our necks'. A problem that these counties that have adopted the Assemblies will try to resolve.

7. Through the People's Assembly, Raila will lead people in the counties that have adopted it. He wont need to be President of the Republic of Kenya to do so. He just needs to be president of People's Assemblies of Kenya.

8. Through the People's Assembly, Raila will remain active, relevant and influential in our politics for a few more years.

9. If these assemblies mobilize themselves into an economic and political block as I think they should, then we are talking about a de facto separate country.

10. What this will do is it will deprive further Uhuru Kenyatta the legitimacy he so much desires. He will see hostility of proportions he has not seen before.

11. This scenario does not play well with the government. They are likely to spend too much resources trying to reign in this assembly thing.

So, because no one was giving an explanation about this assembly thing, I sat down to think about it and this is what I think is going to happen. We have to wait and see. I could be wrong, but if I'm right, Dr. David Ndii is genius.

By Kelly Odiek

[vooke]

President of People's Asembly

The venue for the inauguration of People's Assembly President Rt Hon Raila Odinga and Deputy President Hon Kalonzo Musyoka on 12th December will be announced tomorrow, 10th December #Resist pic.twitter.com/YqUsv8Q0Th

— Azimio TV (@AzimioTv) December 9, 2017

[patel]

Why would a public intellectual like Robina quote Mutahi Ngunyi and his groupies like they are authority on this issue.  People need to take a chill pill. This will not be the end but a new beginning.

[bryan275]

Raila’s planned swearing-in on Tuesday is a self defeatist move
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001262602/raila-s-planned-swearing-in-on-tuesday-is-a-self-defeatist-move

By Daisy Maritim Maina | Published Sun, December 10th 2017 at 00:00, Updated December 9th 2017 at 19:26 GMT +3


National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga is increasingly becoming politically bankrupt. He is losing the game and could very well disappoint his diehard supporters. His political insolvency springs from a multitude of missteps and tactical miscalculations. But the main cause of his bankruptcy can be distilled into one word; ‘Mugabe-fication’. Just like the deposed Zimbabwean leader, the people who are taking him down are a small group known as the ‘Essentials.’ Let me elaborate.

Leaders do not work unilaterally, they do not rule alone. Borrowing from Bruce Mesquita and Alastair Smith in ‘The Dictator’s Handbook’, for any leader, the political landscape can be broken down into three groups of people: first, are the ‘Interchangables’ - this is the general populace, consisting of Raila’s six million voters.

Second are the ‘Influentials’; the group that actually chooses the leader. These are the 3,000 or so ODM party members who occasionally convene the National Delegates Conference to elect their party leader. Finally; the ‘Essentials’, the people with the power to overthrow the leader. This is the clique that surrounds Raila consisting of family, power brokers, Members of Parliament, key advisers and rich capitalists. And because Raila is not just an individual but a corporate entity, he has to regularly account to his critical shareholders - the ‘Essentials’. In the next five years, Raila’s survival in politics is dependent on this core group.

But here is why Raila’s band of ‘Essentials’ could leave him. First, holding onto the reins of power for far too long causes a generational succession jam. This inevitably results in a coup. Much as the promise of Caanan sounds good on paper, it is simply not viable. The ‘Essentials’ are not willing to be led on a journey of forty years, wandering around the desert in search of political paradise. They are impatient and disgruntled. Unlike Raila, they are young and still have a political future ahead of them. They will therefore forge alternative alliances or create their own political formations.

Secondly, a potential ruler never buys political loyalty, he only rents it. And there are two currencies for political loyalty; first is the promise of power and public office and second, monetary rewards. Raila is quickly running out of both. And this is precisely why he is politically bankrupt. He does not possess the hard currency required to purchase loyalty from key backers. Additionally, his lenders will not loan him a single cent more.

Raila is staring at five years in the political cold and his exasperated ‘Essentials’ know this is like a lifetime in politics. By 2022, Raila will have been out of government circulation for a decade, during which time, a new generation of nouveau riche ‘Essentials’ not allied to him or ODM would have emerged and consolidated power.

Without doubt, his erstwhile allies will soon cave into temptation of switching sides. Raila understands that attempting to swear himself in on December 12 will be a self-cannibilising move. He is therefore unlikely not go ahead with it because he is a politically bankrupt pragmatist whose bottom-line is to be in government. The question is, who will bail him out?

—The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University and a Research Fellow at Fort Hall School of Government. maritim.dc@gmail.com

Her surname betrays her.... Lol

[bryan275]

President of People's Asembly

The venue for the inauguration of People's Assembly President Rt Hon Raila Odinga and Deputy President Hon Kalonzo Musyoka on 12th December will be announced tomorrow, 10th December #Resist pic.twitter.com/YqUsv8Q0Th

— Azimio TV (@AzimioTv) December 9, 2017

The People's assembly will be very powerful and cannot be faked like the old tyranny

[gout]

Cancelled- ohhh another day. We will. Plans.
Rocking chair syndrome. Keeps the naive supporters hopeful but takes them nowhere.
Good therapy for losses.

[RV Pundit]

They've chicken out to a later day. Obviously they understood Uhuru was not going to entertain more nonsense from NASA. NASA need to lick their wounds, take their position as the opposition and start to plan for 2022. They were at 45% - 5% is surmountable challenge if they start serious campainging today, ditch Raila and try another formulae.

[vooke]

[RV Pundit]

They make it sounds like they've got a leverage. The threat to swear Raila as PORK or DPORK .

[Kichwa]

In your little world, Ruto is the only person with leverage.

They make it sounds like they've got a leverage. The threat to swear Raila as PORK or DPORK .

[RV Pundit]

Obviously when you have thousands of warriors trained, armed and ready to kill for you- it quite different from having stone throwers put their poor lives at risk. Ruto gave Raila his Rt Honorable title he seem unable to get through. It reality 101. And for that Ruto was tried in ICC with crimes against humanity.

Power concede nothing.

In your little world, Ruto is the only person with leverage.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Raila is too invested in the status quo.  He will not rock the boat.

[patel]

Postponed not canceled seems Raila want to be a statesman after all good for him. It's time for hardliners to take over the NRM movement and drive the agenda. 

[patel]

Those are the inherent dangers of loyal blood. Boycott has worked, sabotage would have been the final punch to jubilee guts.........

Raila is too invested in the status quo.  He will not rock the boat.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Those are the inherent dangers of loyal blood. Boycott has worked, sabotage would have been the final punch to jubilee guts.........

Raila is too invested in the status quo.  He will not rock the boat.

He has opted to lookout for himself and his family interests.  He might as well be ready to hand in his resignation from politics on 12th though.  I don't see how any but the most delusional of his supporters hang on after this.

[RV Pundit]

Pro-bono advice to NASa.

They should take a cue from Kalonzo - whose self-preservation tactics are admirable. The day Raila boycotted - he relocated to Germany - like he use to dive to the toilet in parliament whenever hard decision have to be made. Disappear for sometimes and think through issues. You have no leverage. You have nothing. Don't promise what you can't deliver. No boycott but no election. Sijui nini nini na nini. You got a dog beating...and there is nothing you can do about it...

NASA delusion need to end. They need to sit down and have honest conversation. They need to realize Raila cannot lead Kenya. They also need to realize UhuRuto are formidable forces - not some make-believe - two-tribes coalition. Once they sit down and engage in such a conversation. They will know how deep the hole is and they will star crawling out of it.

2022 like 2013 is golden chance - Uhuru won't be running again. If they are serious - they need not to blow that up. At 45% versus 54% - that is mere 9% to bridge in five years. It can be done. Keep your coalition intact (Raila has to sacrifice himself I think) and play to fears of Gusii+GEMA on Ruto - and we may have some competition.

Otherwise seem our politics is now officially boring till 2032 or 2042....Jubilee will win and win..and win.

And if you're thinking 2-tribes rulling kenya is bad - try one family that has rulled britain for more than 10 centuries or Museveni who has done 35 yrs alone and is looking to extend his rule to 2028 after which he will hand over to his son to extend it to 2070

[patel]

Agreed this is the end. Even with Raila gone I doubt this movement for self determination will die. It's like watching a revolution in slow motion.   

Those are the inherent dangers of loyal blood. Boycott has worked, sabotage would have been the final punch to jubilee guts.........

Raila is too invested in the status quo.  He will not rock the boat.

He has opted to lookout for himself and his family interests.  He might as well be ready to hand in his resignation from politics on 12th though.  I don't see how any but the most delusional of his supporters hang on after this.