Susan Kihika vs Tabitha Karanja for Nax Vegas governor

[Fish Mooney]

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Mrs Keroche has joined DCP mean machine mapema. She knows UDA outside Kalenjin is insufferable.

With her fat wallet I expect it to be Waiguru v Ngirici- style showdown.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DeRfvsCI8rC/

[RV Pundit]

Lee is more lethal if DCP had gotten him. Karanja can only hope to win Kikuyu votes at 50%; he will need to win all of them to win; impossible;
Anyway expect 3 horse race btw Lee vs Susan vs Karanja.
All of them will play around 30%.
Ruto will decide because he will give his candidate Kalenjin 35%
So Susan likely to win by just getting little more of his own - so hapo 45-50%.
But again Lee is the big spoiler as he is likely to get all voters from all the tribes.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Any Candidate that aligns with Kalenjin takes it mapema or the one takes 99% of Okuyus (impossibility). There are almost 100K Luos and Kisiis in Nakuru too that will upset DCP leaning candidate!

[Fish Mooney]

Any Candidate that aligns with Kalenjin takes it mapema or the one takes 99% of Okuyus (impossibility). There are almost 100K Luos and Kisiis in Nakuru too that will upset DCP leaning candidate!

Yea the default winner is Susan with 3-horse race. Unless opposition strike a deal and zone it for DCP which seems unlikely.
I am unconvinced by Pundit's assertion that Lee will garner sizable votes from all kabila. Kalenjin will vote Susan & UDA. Kikuyu are likely to be divided into DCP and Jubilee.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Any Candidate that aligns with Kalenjin takes it mapema or the one takes 99% of Okuyus (impossibility). There are almost 100K Luos and Kisiis in Nakuru too that will upset DCP leaning candidate!

Yea the default winner is Susan with 3-horse race. Unless opposition strike a deal and zone it for DCP which seems unlikely.
I am unconvinced by Pundit's assertion that Lee will garner sizable votes from all kabila. Kalenjin will vote Susan & UDA. Kikuyu are likely to be divided into DCP and Jubilee.

Not true, Kikuyus will go three way, DCP almost 60%, UDA 20-30% and the rest to Jubilee or whatever. With 20-30% doing UDA, Susan will hit it even before voting end!

[Fish Mooney]

Any Candidate that aligns with Kalenjin takes it mapema or the one takes 99% of Okuyus (impossibility). There are almost 100K Luos and Kisiis in Nakuru too that will upset DCP leaning candidate!

Yea the default winner is Susan with 3-horse race. Unless opposition strike a deal and zone it for DCP which seems unlikely.
I am unconvinced by Pundit's assertion that Lee will garner sizable votes from all kabila. Kalenjin will vote Susan & UDA. Kikuyu are likely to be divided into DCP and Jubilee.

Not true, Kikuyus will go three way, DCP almost 60%, UDA 20-30% and the rest to Jubilee or whatever. With 20-30% doing UDA, Susan will hit it even before voting end!

I agree.

[Fish Mooney]

Hitler:

since Pundit and you dismiss RiggyG as a skunk - let's see how he intervenes between Tabitha and Lee to avoid UDA Susan from pitia katikati. You saw in Nyandarua how he asked Methu to focus on national and leave Badilisha to  finish his second term.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Hitler:

since Pundit and you dismiss RiggyG as a skunk - let's see how he intervenes between Tabitha and Lee to avoid UDA Susan from pitia katikati. You saw in Nyandarua how he asked Methu to focus on national and leave Badilisha to  finish his second term.

Nakuru Kikuyus are so different from Nyandarua kikuyus culturally because of intermarriages/mingling with other communities, and Rift Valley vibe in general. Lee will probably be told to maintain his CS position and use his political capital to campaign for Susan. Irene Njoki knows the ground that is why she is in UDA and campaigning aggressively for WSR

[RV Pundit]

Yeah Nakuru kikuyus esp those in west of Nakuru are wary of open DCP knd of tribalism. They dont want siasa kali kali ya DCP coz if war starts they will suffer. Molo-Njoro-Rongai-Subukia will likely go for Kikuyu-Kalenjin deal and elect Susan . Wale wa Naivasha-Gilgil-Bahati-Nakuru west will be Olkalau-and will vote DCP.

I dont see Lee & DCP talking. Maybe if Uhuru and Gathietha agree...which is hard.