Well I guess we will wait till April but so far.
1) Kalonzo is alone with Ukombozi/Azimio alliance.
2) Uhuru led Matiangi/Ndidi/Martha doing their thing.
3) Sifuna (big mistake in building his brand) has allied with Gathietha (who gives you kikuyu but substract everyone else).
Ruto camp
1) ODM are intact - though not seeing Oparanya
2) Luhya nation is one in big danger of Sifuna wave
3) Kindiki seem abandoned - Ruto either has given up on him or is trying new way.
My predictions based on what I am seeing
1) Ruto-Kalonzo backed by ODM. I see Kalonzo failing by the wayside
2) I cant tell Uhuru gameplan. I still cant understand who appointed Lee, Kabogo & Nyeri mutahi
3) Gathietha is going to buy time until COA & SCORK deliver a verdict. If allowed to run - he will 100% run. If not he will back Sifuna-Methu
4) Ndidi will run. Or go with Matiangi-Ndidi. Or whetever Uhuru things. But Ndidi will run - not win but for 2032. He will hope Gathietha doesnt run nor methu -
DCP will fagia all those useles Jubilee, PNU, DP, etc. From how they are running circles around Ndindi, and useless Munyas.
I see that as RiggyG's red line. Before going for any united opposition candidate. Akin to Ruto URP in 2013.
I think you are wrong to think DCP or even Linda are passing clouds - they are not. They will sweep Mlima and Mulembe.
Hapo juu I still see it as Kalonzo-Sifuna - cause duhh - Riggy is barred. Riggy as the brain will find a way to accomodate fat Matiang'i. Which is easy because Broad-Based Gusii is full-house. The problem Ruto has in Gusii - is the literal carte blanche for Matiang'i. If opposition pretend to have a sort of primaries - using Mizani 😊 - they can line him as the powerful interior under Uhuru.
You are right we have to watch Uhuru's game.
Gusii knows Matiangi murima wave is over. They are now in buyer remorse and most likely to back Ruto - if their ego is not handled correctly.
Matiangi I think is so emboldned to Uhuru - he will like do what Kenyattas want him to do. So far he is camp B - of Ndidi/Martha and himself - alternative to DCP thuggery.
Poor Kaloi has been left to Wamalwa and Justin Muturi - infact last press conference he was alone.
I think oppositions are all talking to Ruto and each is suspicious of the other.