Lovely clips.
Yes obviously the middle class is the spending class. It's why China is now sanction-proof: companies will choose 500m Chinese over 150m Americans regardless of the overall GDPs.
This is economics 101... I don't know why you are presenting it to us as a new discovery. 
It is, however, quite a tough job to lift say 50% of the population up to the middle class. Ngumu sana.
Kenya is way above the Sub Sahara average.
Just seeing this right now.
Fish Mooney you are interesting to say the least

.
If it's nothing new, then why haven't Kitengela residents had water for a whopping 63 years since independence

?
Si it's economics 101? If yes, then it would be a no-brainer to supply the same with something as simple as water on tap, right? In order to save the economy trillions of shillings in opportunity cost of ordering bowsers at high cost. As well as in wasted man-hours solving water-dearth issues and so on since independence, no?
Then you post a curious graph without posting all the relevant concrete data for us to interrogate.
What specific metrics did you use that informs the graph?
What's middle class defined for each?
Did you adjust for PPP?
Without these basics and more, the graph isn't edifying to us.
But back to topic. You've raised a great issue. The growth of the middle class.
Going back to KNBS data, if we crunch the numbers, did folks know that ;
With mortgages in Kenya being
a paltry 30,000 in absolute numbers, (which is a fantastic thing! We should, by the way, try to reduce those numbers to almost zero)....
A whopping 61% of Kenyans own their homes.
Of these, a blistering 93% of them BUILT THEIR HOMES while 3% inherited the same.
Of the 61% metric, the rural-urban divide is staggering.
A robust 85% of rural residents own their homes outright.
With only 22% of urban residents owning the same. Haya, lets control for various factors. I think you would agree with me that;
1. Rural home values cannot be equated with urban ones, hence the discrepancy. A one bedroom house in the rural areas and a 10 room mansion in Runda are on different price scales. It is way easier to build in the former.
2. The urban zones are the cluster zones of the middle and upper classes. In absolute numbers, that is. Nairobi and surrounds being the prime cluster point. Rural-urban migration of course informs this since majority of opportunities - financial and social - are perceived to be in these urban areas.
3. Informal settlements, in Nairobi especially, as well as lower income areas mostly in Eastlands and areas like Githurai are where the majority of residents reside.
4. The overwhelming majority of the middle class in Nairobi specifically CANNOT AFFORD to own in Nairobi core; whether by building or buying.
Therefore, if I were president, and I'm cognizant of the fact that
growing the middle classes (from the urban and rural poor) i.e. the BOTTOM UP model brilliantly crafted by the WSR team, is the
PRIME GOAL, I would do the following.
The FIRST ACT I would decree as soon as I warmed the presidential seat would be this;
To instruct that the ARDHISASA system be rolled out and CONCLUDED in 6 months. Worst case scenario, within ONE YEAR year.
Every single title deed in Kenya should be digitized, with a scannable barcode AND put on a blockchain system wherein tampering from lands officials
becomes next to impossible. It does not cost much.
We have the technical experts as good as any the world over.
Why has it not been done?
I know the murky land cartels who thrive under our current opaque land system, and who have succeeded in impeding the rollout of the system from way back in 2002 when Kibaki promised it, will cry rivers, but this is God's work; Kenya is bigger than them!
I don't buy the excuses that there are very complex issues -- like the land buying company titles messes in areas like Mwiki and Njiru as well as in the Rift Valley, for example, where people hold 'certificates' which are basically handwritten receipts not recognised in law as proof of ownership --as the reason why the system is taking time to roll out.
Like SHA.
ROLL IT OUT NATIONWIDE FIRST, then deal with teething issues as they emerge.
RWANDA did it in record time. Simple IT systems - now assisted by AI - can handle a billion titles or even more comfortably. Is Kenya incompetent in achieving this simple feat?
This single feat, in my humble view, will turbocharge middle class growth overnight. Why so?
1. The middle class needs security of title. If someone has enough savings to start a game resort near Masai Mara, for example. Yet is apprehensive about legitimacy of a certain title, why would they risk their life savings doing so? They would rather perhaps invest in bonds instead which are secure and consistent. This investment creates no direct jobs and has a near-zero multiplier effect.
2. Title transfers upon purchase can be done at rocket speed once the system is trusted.
3. Literally trillions of wasted man hours and shillings will be saved from eschewing court cases, land disputes, title processing delays, fraud management and so on. I estimate that
solving this alone will add 1 % GDP growth annually. Second, I would pursue the homeowning middle class at TOP SPEED to where they are clustering to and provide all the necessary amenities to them post-haste.
The three prime ones being water (which us very low hanging fruit that doesn't cost much to implement) as well as electricity, and very basic murraming of feeder roads at the
bare minimum. Upgrades and other last mile initiatives can come later. These seemingly simple amenities will boost middle class numbers by leaps and bounds.
It is no secret that the majority of peri-urban homeowners are former Nairobi residents. Hundreds of thousands more are renting cramped apartments and homes in Nairobi core. Provide the amenities and the latter will join the former in droves and become homeowners themselves.
Finally, I would continue to incentivize homeownership for the middle class through very well thought out programmes like the AHP but with one twist.
Make social housing almost free, with each occupant who gets a unit being put onto a path to ownership of the same. Some former Eastern bloc countries did this after the collapse of the USSR and the homeownership (read middle class) numbers rocketed as a result.
Finally, I would harp day and night that my dream is
for every single Kenyan to have a piece of land on which they own a comfortable home no matter how modest. Make it the clarion call, rallying point and key plank of the Kenyan dream.
Just as was done in the now collapsing USA in the 20th Century.
The electoral campaigns frequently touted the American Dream as being ..
"A chicken in every pot, (no hunger and suffering)...with a car in every garage (implication being homeownership for everyone) to boot!"
The nation rallied brilliantly around these two seemingly simple yet revolutionary/transformative concepts and the rest, as they say, is history.
America became a
wildly successful majority middle class society and the largest car-owning nation in the world.
Add to that the small matter of said country becoming the
richest country in human history as a result.
I will reiterate it until I die.
THE MIDDLE CLASS
THE MIDDLE CLASS
THE MIDDLE CLASS!!
Ni hayo tu.