Add Iteso, Kurias, Taita, Taveta, Indians-Arabs, Makondes, Shonas

Add Mbeeres, Tharakas, Igembes.
Or simply put them at 40% - old Moi const- of 90s KANU.
Then add Luos and a bit more of Luhyas.
And you will be somewhere around 60%.
Hesabu rahisi sana.
Kindiki can bring 20% of MURIMA big tribes (Kikuyu, Meru, Embu).
And Ruto lead will be unassailable.
Will opposition remain united. Not when Maths dont maths. Not when they are broke. Their biggest lifeline is Kenyattas and Kikuyu angry mass.
Ruto doesnt need to buy opposition but can destroy it by taking either Matiangi, Gachagua,or Sifuna.
Mijikenda = 9 coastal tribes
Pastoralists = MATUSA + Somali, Pokomo bla bla. Basically NFD.
Nowayhaha of course will tell you not all Maa will vote Ruto. But I view Ruto as statistically dominant in these small tribes.
If Ruto takes big Luo chunk and small Luhya chunk - and vice versa for Kalonzo. It will still be turnout, etc war to the finish line. Noone has a big obvious advantage at this early stage because stallions & castles can move.
Obviously I am assuming the big fish remain opposition: RiggyG, Kalonzo, Matiang'i, Eugene, Natembeya, now Sifuna. Pawns Malalas, Khalwales, Karuas, Jicho Pevu can sneak about with no effect.
If Ruto buys say Sifuna or Natembeya or Matiang'i he can kick opposition. But sioni. He got only money nothing else. The trust deficit and ideological divide is stiff.
You underrate all the many small tribes.
Kalonzo has GEMA, Kamba, Gusii.
Ruto has Kalenjin, Mijikenda, pastoralists.
War is in Luo and Luhya. That's the homework not disco-matanga.