It’s Matiangi, Sifuna ticket

[Fairandbalanced]

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That sends Kasongo home, jail and money recovered. I was right on Raila thing, Martha would be sending corrupt idiots to jail right now. It’s Matiangi, Sifuna, Kalonzo as attorney general jailing people, Martha foreign, Gachagua industry, Natembeya interior, Babu Nairobi, Orengo can lead a anti corruption constitution, there is actually a job for all the freedom fighters. In the first day after the sword, I want to see passports suspended, I want to see mechanisms to get taxpayers money back, I want to see Kasongo surrendering stolen money, this money should go to education and healthcare. Kenyans have to take back power, make sure someone as corrupt and idiotic will never see power again.

[Fish Mooney]

You are delusional. Sifuna has his senate seat in the bag.
It's Kalonzo-Matiang'i after Natembeya stood down.

[Tactician]

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket. 

[Fish Mooney]

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[RV Pundit]

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[Tactician]

So Sifuna is splitting ODM + conducting a national campaign just to retain what he already has? Then he must be one stupid fella - when he could just sit back, stick with Yuthlida and wait for endorsement for Senator.

The signals are all there - when you hear opposition speaking of 2002 moment, they mean that the Linda Mwananchi (Babu/Sifuna/Orengo/Osotsi etc) group will join up with the Melon/Gachagua/Matiangi group late Feb/Mar 2027 to create a national wave. 

As for Matiang'i demanding DP, that's fine.  Doesn't mean he will get it.  The grand coalition of Opposition + Linda Mwananchi will have to create room for the latter and balance that ticket.   

 - Melon for Prez representing Ukambani/Mountain
 - Sifuna for DP representing the ODM hardliners (western + luo + coast)
 - Babu for Nbi gvn - Rao successor on the ballot who can also campaign nationally
 - Matiangi can go for PM to lock down the Kisii vote
 - Mountain gets deputy PM + Speaker + powerful ministers

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[Tactician]

Sifuna gets DP position + Babu for Nbi governor & that 35% jumps past 55%. 

As for the Mountain, they are just desperate to remove WSR.  Then deal with consequences later. After all, they do not have any viable candidate in either WSR or opposition side & can afford to wait it out until they reorganise.

Some positions in govt, same as they have currently in WSR cabinet, are enough so long as they remove WSR.

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[RV Pundit]

You mean kikuyus.
Because Kindiki is DPORK and 2032 front runner if ODM doesnt go for his seat.
Anyway, I dont think Sifuna can get any votes in Luhya - he simply has no support - 2 mps and no MCAS.
They are the latest circus in town.

Definitely opposition have tough jobs squaring circles.

For Ruto - it just to Keep Kindiki - and hold ODM - and he wins by 65%.

Sifuna gets DP position + Babu for Nbi governor & that 35% jumps past 55%. 

As for the Mountain, they are just desperate to remove WSR.  Then deal with consequences later. After all, they do not have any viable candidate in either WSR or opposition side & can afford to wait it out until they reorganise.

Some positions in govt, same as they have currently in WSR cabinet, are enough so long as they remove WSR.

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[Tactician]

ODM as we knew it is no more.   Their talisman, RAO, is gone.  Hence the split we are seeing now.  So relying on the ODM of 2022 is a mirage.

As for Sifuna, counting his MPs is a misnomer - it's like counting how many MCAs Sakaja has since he hasn't been impeached.  Yet sentiment on the ground tells anyone with a nose that his kitchen is on fire. 

For Kindiki, the man is already smelling the rain that is about to fall on him.  Whether he is on the ticket or not, his people will abandon him.  That he got 50% in a byelection in his backyard, where he has incumbency + could concentrate forces in one constituency says a lot about his strength or lack thereof.

You mean kikuyus.
Because Kindiki is DPORK and 2032 front runner if ODM doesnt go for his seat.
Anyway, I dont think Sifuna can get any votes in Luhya - he simply has no support - 2 mps and no MCAS.
They are the latest circus in town.

Definitely opposition have tough jobs squaring circles.

For Ruto - it just to Keep Kindiki - and hold ODM - and he wins by 65%.

Sifuna gets DP position + Babu for Nbi governor & that 35% jumps past 55%. 

As for the Mountain, they are just desperate to remove WSR.  Then deal with consequences later. After all, they do not have any viable candidate in either WSR or opposition side & can afford to wait it out until they reorganise.

Some positions in govt, same as they have currently in WSR cabinet, are enough so long as they remove WSR.

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[RV Pundit]

You clearly dont know politics and are wasting our time with Sifuna circus.
Politics is about ethnic kings and sub kings.
ODM is Oburu - then you go luhyas you need oparanya - gusii you need Arati - you go to Maasai you need wakina Ole kina
Coast - you need Joho - you go to SOmalis you need say Wajir.
You dont just run around headless eti Sifuna and Babu
You need to first convince the shareholders of  ethnic and sub ethnic groups that you have vision and they can buy into it.
So far from Luos, to Luhyas, to gusii, to matusa, nep and coast - ODM - are okay to buy time with Oburu odinga.

ODM as we knew it is no more.   Their talisman, RAO, is gone.  Hence the split we are seeing now.  So relying on the ODM of 2022 is a mirage.

As for Sifuna, counting his MPs is a misnomer - it's like counting how many MCAs Sakaja has since he hasn't been impeached.  Yet sentiment on the ground tells anyone with a nose that his kitchen is on fire. 

For Kindiki, the man is already smelling the rain that is about to fall on him.  Whether he is on the ticket or not, his people will abandon him.  That he got 50% in a byelection in his backyard, where he has incumbency + could concentrate forces in one constituency says a lot about his strength or lack thereof.

[Tactician]

I agree.

Oburu is the kingpin of ODM; Oparanya is the kingpin of Luhyas, Arati is the kingpin of Kisiis, and Joho is the kingpin in Coast.

2027 is just 16 months away

You clearly dont know politics and are wasting our time with Sifuna circus.
Politics is about ethnic kings and sub kings.
ODM is Oburu - then you go luhyas you need oparanya - gusii you need Arati - you go to Maasai you need wakina Ole kina
Coast - you need Joho - you go to SOmalis you need say Wajir.
You dont just run around headless eti Sifuna and Babu
You need to first convince the shareholders of  ethnic and sub ethnic groups that you have vision and they can buy into it.
So far from Luos, to Luhyas, to gusii, to matusa, nep and coast - ODM - are okay to buy time with Oburu odinga.

ODM as we knew it is no more.   Their talisman, RAO, is gone.  Hence the split we are seeing now.  So relying on the ODM of 2022 is a mirage.

As for Sifuna, counting his MPs is a misnomer - it's like counting how many MCAs Sakaja has since he hasn't been impeached.  Yet sentiment on the ground tells anyone with a nose that his kitchen is on fire. 

For Kindiki, the man is already smelling the rain that is about to fall on him.  Whether he is on the ticket or not, his people will abandon him.  That he got 50% in a byelection in his backyard, where he has incumbency + could concentrate forces in one constituency says a lot about his strength or lack thereof.

[RV Pundit]

We have been doing political punditry for 30yrs now.
Sifuna wont even last 3 months in his circus.
He has no BUY IN.

I agree.

Oburu is the kingpin of ODM; Oparanya is the kingpin of Luhyas, Arati is the kingpin of Kisiis, and Joho is the kingpin in Coast.

2027 is just 16 months away

[Fish Mooney]

Luhya are already split. Bukusu are gone. If you add Sifuna youth rebellion Ruto has a big headache there.

How does Luo cookie crumble? I see Ruto has elevate Mbadi to infra fund chairman. Obvious he is doing this cause of Babu-Orengo threat.

To that 40% add half Luhya and Luo.

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

[Fish Mooney]

Tactician is naive idealist like F&B. Sifuna-Babu base is slippery phantom called GenZ. That's why I think DCP-Wiper will give them Nairobi - a superbargain.

Your Luo analysis problem I see - is banking on untested Raila-free Luo. Will they follow senile Oburu? It is just as likely they will vote local ODM but split PORK.

We have been doing political punditry for 30yrs now.
Sifuna wont even last 3 months in his circus.
He has no BUY IN.

I agree.

Oburu is the kingpin of ODM; Oparanya is the kingpin of Luhyas, Arati is the kingpin of Kisiis, and Joho is the kingpin in Coast.

2027 is just 16 months away

[Fish Mooney]

Pundit if you start with that 40% of Kalonzo-Matiang'i-RiggyG,

then you must now face 3 big problems:

1. Luhya is split - with MaDVD, Weta, ODM already backing Ruto. Byelections told us this.

2. Luo is split - the cracks are showing.

3. Mt Kenya East - everyone and their goat knows it a lie that Ruto will back Kindiki 2032 with his puny 5% nationally. Worse is Riggy unrelecting pammeling.

Let us see if he has something there there.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has 55% before polls by simply taking 20% kamatusa, 10% luo,15% from coast n nep & small tribes. 10% from luhyas. If he gets pie of mt kenya esp east that 60%. He gets few gusii, kuria n kambas 65%.  In entire luo land who is opposing Ruto..just orengo..not even one mp or mca backs him.we can add Babu in nairobi with again not one mp or mca backing him. Luhya at least Ruto has some strong opposition like sifuna,natembeya,etc. Coast yote its just jicho pevu. Nep n northern kenya hamna. Maasai kuna 3 or 4 mps esp kajiado. Ruto as of now is getting 65 to 70% . Siasa is not make believe...you cannot be popular n no mp or mcas who are at ground are running to align with you. That is normal what i check. Even wamunyoro is struggling in nyeri...in ukambani kalonzo cant even win all mps n mcas...many know he is joke going nowhere. Ruto is set for big landslide win because even in his strongest opposition zone like kikuyu he can still go there n get some people. Let see olkalau.

[Fish Mooney]

Ruto has 55% before polls by simply taking 20% kamatusa, 10% luo,15% from coast n nep & small tribes. 10% from luhyas. If he gets pie of mt kenya esp east that 60%. He gets few gusii, kuria n kambas 65%.  In entire luo land who is opposing Ruto..just orengo..not even one mp or mca backs him.we can add Babu in nairobi with again not one mp or mca backing him. Luhya at least Ruto has some strong opposition like sifuna,natembeya,etc. Coast yote its just jicho pevu. Nep n northern kenya hamna. Maasai kuna 3 or 4 mps esp kajiado. Ruto as of now is getting 65 to 70% . Siasa is not make believe...you cannot be popular n no mp or mcas who are at ground are running to align with you. That is normal what i check. Even wamunyoro is struggling in nyeri...in ukambani kalonzo cant even win all mps n mcas...many know he is joke going nowhere. Ruto is set for big landslide win because even in his strongest opposition zone like kikuyu he can still go there n get some people. Let see olkalau.

Luhya - you are right about Natembeya TKOd Weta. And Sifuna. So where are you getting the 10%?

Luo - that 10% is problematic. You simply have no objective data of Luo voting in multiparty Kenya without the Odingas.

65% unaota. This will go down to the wire.

[RV Pundit]

Siasa is not rocket science - for someone with your IQ.
1) Natembeya mambo yake ilizimwa in Malava 1 & 2 - he has now run to Tranzaoia where he desperate to defend his seat. Mambo ya Tawe aliwacha.
2) Sifuna ni moto ya karatasi - he run juzi kwao - he got 3,000 votes - he nothing in Bukusu and nothing in Luhya. He doesnt have MCAs/MPS following him.

So Luhyas 15% - giving opposition 5% is being super-generous - Ruto could as well carry 80% of it or more - considering expressway and SGRS etc.
Luos is easy - just follow indicators from MPs/MCas/Governors - all point consensus to support Ruto - bar Orengo and Babu.

Babu is playing himself offside because Nairobi governor is GACHAGUA big price -plus 7 governorship of kikuyu majority counties - so hapo ataona viusasa.
Sifuna will have to join DCP and become their senate candidate - once the current moto ya karatasi iishe

Ruto has 55% before polls by simply taking 20% kamatusa, 10% luo,15% from coast n nep & small tribes. 10% from luhyas. If he gets pie of mt kenya esp east that 60%. He gets few gusii, kuria n kambas 65%.  In entire luo land who is opposing Ruto..just orengo..not even one mp or mca backs him.we can add Babu in nairobi with again not one mp or mca backing him. Luhya at least Ruto has some strong opposition like sifuna,natembeya,etc. Coast yote its just jicho pevu. Nep n northern kenya hamna. Maasai kuna 3 or 4 mps esp kajiado. Ruto as of now is getting 65 to 70% . Siasa is not make believe...you cannot be popular n no mp or mcas who are at ground are running to align with you. That is normal what i check. Even wamunyoro is struggling in nyeri...in ukambani kalonzo cant even win all mps n mcas...many know he is joke going nowhere. Ruto is set for big landslide win because even in his strongest opposition zone like kikuyu he can still go there n get some people. Let see olkalau.

Luhya - you are right about Natembeya TKOd Weta. And Sifuna. So where are you getting the 10%?

Luo - that 10% is problematic. You simply have no objective data of Luo voting in multiparty Kenya without the Odingas.

65% unaota. This will go down to the wire.

Luhya - you are right about Natembeya TKOd Weta. And Sifuna. So where are you getting the 10%?

Luo - that 10% is problematic. You simply have no objective data of Luo voting in multiparty Kenya without the Odingas.

65% unaota. This will go down to the wire.

[Githunguri]

doesn't work.

Sifuna is very rude.You don't need a deputy president who threatens people physically or calls them umbwa.

[Fish Mooney]

doesn't work.

Sifuna is very rude.You don't need a deputy president who threatens people physically or calls them umbwa.

Acha kelele analyze Pundit's strange numbers.
He thinks Ruto will sweep everything outside Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.

Where is Nowayhaha when we need him.