Now with your mathematics
Ruto will lose the 35% Gusii
Ruto will lose the 80 % GEMA which was 49 % of his total votes
The 25 % in Coast he got 10% was GEMA who moved there
50% MATUSA 10 % are GEMA in Kajiado and Narok
You dont mention Rift Valley , You know the percentage of GEMA in Rift Valley .
Kamba around 200K voted for him
NEP i pegged him perfoming better than Uhuru and did way worse
How do you expect him to win ? Ruto is not Raila , He spent 20 years fighting Raila and you expect Luo Nyanza to vote for him ?
I was in UhuRutos campaign and what made him support Uhuru was simple fact he had spent 5 years fighting Raila and his voterbase had been convinced Raila was the demon . It would very hard to convince them otherwise . Similarly Raila fanbase especially post 2002 would be heartfelt supporting Ruto and this is also the main reason he was voted for by GEMA in 2022 …. Uhuru could not sell Raila to GEMA who had seen him as an enemy since 2003 .
Ruto blundered after 2022 mistake after mistake has led him to where he is , I personally said here the strength of Ruto Pre 2022 was that he was his sole decision maker that strength can become a weakness and it did become.
Pole but its not mathematically possible for Ruto to win …..
Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.
Moi beat that alliance very easy. Ruto is unbeatable because he has sizable portion of his Kamba-Luhya-Gema-Kisii alliance. Bukusu under Wetangula and Barasa alone is 45% of Luhya. 50% of Maragoli's are in Mudavadi pocket. The rest are in Oparanya and the group. Count almost 50% of Luhyas in Ruto camp, at worse 30%. Without President and Deputy, count Kikuyus up to 30-40% in Ruto's camp. Luis even if they go 50/50 still Ruto wins all day. Kales, Somalis, Coast, Turkanas, Maasai and all in between will power Ruto the same way they did Moi in 1992 and 1997. It is simply very had to defeat a kalenjin in Kenyan politics because automatically the pastoralists come together like it it is a feast! Ruto will have to lose 75% of Luhya, 85% of Kikuyu and 60% of Luo to come close to losing. GEMA east of Merus, Tharakas, Embus, etc are looking at Kindiki and will not joke around with 2032 and beyond, so they will vote away from mainstream Kikuyus very hard. Another thing, IEBC, and Kenya's Supreme Court are working around the clock to ensure Ruto wins by the biggest margin possible! If Ruto get 30% Kikuyu and 35% Luhya, it is a wrap early in the morning!
