Rough MOASS for Governors race - Kenya Kwanza 30, Azimio 16 and one Independent

[RV Pundit]

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Last election I got 39 out 47 right - missing 8 counties.

Right now I can call these 33 outright -  with UDA taking the bulk of it

Code   County   Former Prov   Predicted Winner
5   Lamu   Coast    Issa Timam
18   Nyandarua   Central    Moses Kiarie Badilisha
1   Mombasa (County)   Coast   Abdul Nassir
20   Kirinyaga   Central   Anna Waiguru
30   Baringo   Rift Valley   Benjamin Cheboi
14   Embu   Eastern   Cecil Mbarire
26   Trans-Nzoia   Rift Valley   Chris Wamalwa
37   Kakamega   Western   Cleo Malala
35   Kericho   Rift Valley   Erick Mutai
2   Kwale   Coast   Fatuma Achani
36   Bomet   Rift Valley   Hillary Barchok
21   Murang'a   Central   Irungu Kangata
27   Uasin Gishu   Rift Valley   Jonathan Bii
31   Laikipia   Rift Valley   Joshua Irungu
15   Kitui   Eastern   Julius Malobe
34   Kajiado   Rift Valley   Katoo ole Metito
39   Bungoma   Western   Ken Lusaka
22   Kiambu   Central   Kimani Wamatangi
25   Samburu   Rift Valley   Lelti ati
12   Meru   Eastern   Mithika Linturi
13   Tharaka-Nithi   Eastern   Muthomi Njuki
17   Makueni   Eastern   Mutula Junior
19   Nyeri   Central   Mwalimu Kahiga
44   Migori   Nyanza   Ochillo Ayacko
33   Narok   Rift Valley   Patrick Ntutu
40   Busia   Western   Paul Otuoma
42   Kisumu   Nyanza   Peter Nyongo
24   West Pokot   Rift Valley   Simon Kachapin
29   Nandi   Rift Valley   Stephen Sang
32   Nakuru   Rift Valley   Susan Kihika
28   Elgeyo-Marakwet   Rift Valley   Wesly Rotich


Most of the Too close to call are in Northern - ASAL regions - where information is hard to get.
23   Turkana   Rift Valley   Too cloce
7   Garissa   North Eastern   Too close
9   Mandera   North Eastern   Too close
10   Marsabit   Eastern   Too close
3   Kilifi   Coast   Too close
11   Isiolo   Eastern   Too close
4   Tana River   Coast   Too close
6   Taita–Taveta   Coast   Too close
8   Wajir   North Eastern   Too close
38   Vihiga   Western   Too close
41   Siaya   Nyanza   Too Close
43   Homa Bay   Nyanza   Too Close
45   Kisii   Nyanza   Too Close
46   Nyamira   Nyanza   Too Close
47   Nairobi (County)   Nairobi (Province)   Too Close
16   Machakos   Eastern   Too close - Wavinya leading

         
         



Overally it look like this.

Code   County   Former Prov   Azimio   KK   IND   Predicted Winner
1   Mombasa (County)   Coast   1         Abdul Nassir
7   Garissa   North Eastern   1         Too close
9   Mandera   North Eastern   1         Too close
10   Marsabit   Eastern   1         Too close
15   Kitui   Eastern   1         Julius Malobe
17   Makueni   Eastern   1         Mutula Junior
40   Busia   Western   1         Paul Otuoma
42   Kisumu   Nyanza   1         Peter Nyongo
44   Migori   Nyanza   1         Ochillo Ayacko
3   Kilifi   Coast   0.65   0.35      Too close
11   Isiolo   Eastern   0.5   0.5      Too close
4   Tana River   Coast   0.5   0.5      Too close
6   Taita–Taveta   Coast   0.5   0.5      Too close
8   Wajir   North Eastern   0.5   0.5      Too close
16   Machakos   Eastern   0.5   0.5      Too close - Wavinya leading
23   Turkana   Rift Valley   0.5   0.5      Too cloce
38   Vihiga   Western   0.5   0.5      Too close
41   Siaya   Nyanza   0.5      0.5   Too Close
43   Homa Bay   Nyanza   0.5      0.5   Too Close
45   Kisii   Nyanza   0.5   0.5      Too Close
46   Nyamira   Nyanza   0.5   0.5      Too Close
47   Nairobi (County)   Nairobi (Province)   0.5   0.5      Too Close
2   Kwale   Coast      1      Fatuma Achani
5   Lamu   Coast      1       Issa Timam
12   Meru   Eastern      1      Mithika Linturi
13   Tharaka-Nithi   Eastern      1      Muthomi Njuki
14   Embu   Eastern      1      Cecil Mbarire
18   Nyandarua   Central      1       Moses Kiarie Badilisha
19   Nyeri   Central      1      Mwalimu Kahiga
20   Kirinyaga   Central      1      Anna Waiguru
21   Murang'a   Central      1      Irungu Kangata
22   Kiambu   Central      1      Kimani Wamatangi
24   West Pokot   Rift Valley      1      Simon Kachapin
25   Samburu   Rift Valley      1      Lelti ati
26   Trans-Nzoia   Rift Valley      1      Chris Wamalwa
27   Uasin Gishu   Rift Valley      1      Jonathan Bii
28   Elgeyo-Marakwet   Rift Valley      1      Wesly Rotich
29   Nandi   Rift Valley      1      Stephen Sang
30   Baringo   Rift Valley      1      Benjamin Cheboi
31   Laikipia   Rift Valley      1      Joshua Irungu
32   Nakuru   Rift Valley      1      Susan Kihika
33   Narok   Rift Valley      1      Patrick Ntutu
34   Kajiado   Rift Valley      1      Katoo ole Metito
35   Kericho   Rift Valley      1      Erick Mutai
36   Bomet   Rift Valley      1      Hillary Barchok
37   Kakamega   Western      1      Cleo Malala
39   Bungoma   Western      1      Ken Lusaka
         15.65   30.35   1   
                  

[audacityofhope]

Chris Wamalwa to defeat Natembeya??

[RV Pundit]

Chris start with 40 percent of Kalenjin+Kikuyu. He only need 10 percent from his Bukusu to win. Susan the same scenario in Nakuru. And Narok the same...minorities will decide because they will not have a candidate.
Natembeya - hated by Kalenjin - key minority in Tranzoia - will be hanged for Mau
Ole Kina - hated  by Kalenjin - key minority in Narok - hanged for Mau
Lee - hated by kalenjin - who are key minority in Nakuru - hanged for Azimio

Other areas minorities can decide Mombasa, Nairobi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kajiado,even uasin ngishu....you gotta be careful in such areas....not to joke with Raila or Ruto or Kalonzo or previously Uhuru. - otherwise you will attract negative or protest voters from their communities diaspora.

If you come from cosmopolitan areas - be formless - play the middle ground - dont be tribal extermist - try to be friends with all national leaders.

If you come from homogenous area - where single tribe is 80-90 percent like most of kenya - then play extreme tribal politics - and defend your tribal interest without shame.

Chris Wamalwa to defeat Natembeya??

[audacityofhope]

....
Lee - hated by kalenjin - who are key minority in Nakuru - hanged for Azimio

Lee "hated" by Kalenjin? Who coined the word 'Kalenjin', was it not Moi? Kalenjin is not a tribe! Lee 'hated' by Kalenjin yet by blood Lee is Moi's son?   You can't argue with genes & DNA. A blood line that led Lee to dethrone Mbugua to become 2nd Governor of Nakuru. Moi died before forgiving WSR. Tafakari hayo.

[RV Pundit]

Who is Moi to kalenjin. He is a son of an orphan nobody from Baringo. His clan is not even known for anything. Yeye ni BURE kabisa. He has no power to curse anything. There are Kalenjin clans with power to curse or cause trouble. Koitatel Samoei clan have religious and prophetic powers. Those are feared - Talais. There are clans who also have power to curse certain things. I am even better than Moi - because our clan posses evil eye and we can finish Moi by looking at him badly.

Moi was told point blank by Kalenjin that yeye ni MTU BURE yatima maskini ya kanisa pretending to lord over Kalenjin. My friend if Kalenjin could stone to death Talai leaders - sembuze that orphan from Baringo.

Lee mistake is being dynasty at times when people do not want dynasty - his sticking around uhuru and gideon - his taking of Nakuru to Mt kenya - yote tisa - he is going home.

2017 he went in because kalenjin saw him as not hardliner - half kikuyu half maasaii(officially) -

2013 -Mbugua went in by default because TNA was given Nakuru - and URP Narok - Zoning

Lee "hated" by Kalenjin? Who coined the word 'Kalenjin', was it not Moi? Kalenjin is not a tribe! Lee 'hated' by Kalenjin yet by blood Lee is Moi's son?   You can't argue with genes & DNA. A blood line that led Lee to dethrone Mbugua to become 2nd Governor of Nakuru. Moi died before forgiving WSR. Tafakari hayo.

[RV Pundit]

Moi should have been stoned to death like KImnyole for misleading community in 2002...to back a failed project. He never recovered from it.

<sub>Trouble began for Kimnyole in the late 1880s, starting about 1888, when disaster struck the Nandi in the form of rinderpest cattle disease which was spreading round Kenya at this time.

Kimnyole was blamed for not having warned the warriors who went out to raid and brought back rinderpest. It was noted that only his cattle had not died. He was also accused of sanctioning a combined raid of Nandi bororiosiek that had resulted in disaster when large numbers of Nandi warriors were killed.

Kimnyole Arap Turukat was thus sentenced to death in 1890 and was clubbed to death by representatives of some bororiosiek.[2]

Succession
Kimnyole's death led to a succession dispute between his two sons; Koitalel Arap Samoei and Kipchomber Arap Koilege. Factions formed around the two aspirants and minor skirmishes took place between their supporters but this did not extend to full-scale war. The dispute ended with the defeat of Kipchomber Arap Koilege in 1895, after which he fled to the Kipsigis with his supporters, becoming the first Kipsigis Orgoiyot.[2]</sub>

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I agree with your prediction. Once you have UDA certificate in RVGEMA region, you are shoe in. In Transzoia, Nakuru and Narok, it is obvious the Kalenjins will vote with William Ruto to a tune of 98%. With that, Natembeya will kaput, Susan will decapitate Lee, and Ole Ntutu will be powered by Ngong, Purko majority, and sizable Kipsigis.

[RV Pundit]

Uda nominations n wave will ensure those with tickets start at 50 percent in many places..hard to beat..

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Uda nominations n wave will ensure those with tickets start at 50 percent in many places..hard to beat..

Natembeya should have gone to Bungoma, but with Ken Lusaka, Barasa, and Wetangula leading Azimio tawe campaign, I guess he'd kaput over there as well.

[RV Pundit]

Maybe mp seat... otherwise civil service he was marked for removal.. governor I think he is blind to number of kalenjin there who cannot wait to punish him

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I see Sicily Kariuki out of Nyandarua race. The place is too hot for jubilidiots

[RV Pundit]

That one was hopeless - she is  a woman - from Embu and in Jubilee - that is just too many negative to start with.

I see Sicily Kariuki out of Nyandarua race. The place is too hot for jubilidiots

[gout]

Eish! Is it this bad for Orengo and Wanga?
Wanga I can see she is on hasora. Spending more time on national politics while kidero is working the ground.
 
Orengo, nowhere to be seen or heard.
 

Most of the Too close to call are in Northern - ASAL regions - where information is hard to get.
23   Turkana   Rift Valley   Too cloce
7   Garissa   North Eastern   Too close
9   Mandera   North Eastern   Too close
10   Marsabit   Eastern   Too close
3   Kilifi   Coast   Too close
11   Isiolo   Eastern   Too close
4   Tana River   Coast   Too close
6   Taita–Taveta   Coast   Too close
8   Wajir   North Eastern   Too close
38   Vihiga   Western   Too close
41   Siaya   Nyanza   Too Close
43   Homa Bay   Nyanza   Too Close
45   Kisii   Nyanza   Too Close
46   Nyamira   Nyanza   Too Close
47   Nairobi (County)   Nairobi (Province)   Too Close
16   Machakos   Eastern   Too close - Wavinya leading

[RV Pundit]

Yes both Siaya and Homabay have had rough 10 yrs under ODM imposed leaders.
The people can see devolution working elsewhere but not their counties.
That is where Orengo and Wanga start - from a deficit.
There are governors that delivered - at least initially - Oparanya, Lusaka, Chepkwony - in Western Kenya.
The those that did nothing - start with Cyprian Awiti and first term of Siaya gov.

Eish! Is it this bad for Orengo and Wanga?
Wanga I can see she is on hasora. Spending more time on national politics while kidero is working the ground.
 
Orengo, nowhere to be seen or heard.
 

Most of the Too close to call are in Northern - ASAL regions - where information is hard to get.
23   Turkana   Rift Valley   Too cloce
7   Garissa   North Eastern   Too close
9   Mandera   North Eastern   Too close
10   Marsabit   Eastern   Too close
3   Kilifi   Coast   Too close
11   Isiolo   Eastern   Too close
4   Tana River   Coast   Too close
6   Taita–Taveta   Coast   Too close
8   Wajir   North Eastern   Too close
38   Vihiga   Western   Too close
41   Siaya   Nyanza   Too Close
43   Homa Bay   Nyanza   Too Close
45   Kisii   Nyanza   Too Close
46   Nyamira   Nyanza   Too Close
47   Nairobi (County)   Nairobi (Province)   Too Close
16   Machakos   Eastern   Too close - Wavinya leading

[Pajero]

It's not that they are too close,it's the way you want them to be.You are not being objective,for instance in kisii,Arati is polling over 50% with closest competitor doing  less than 20%,how is that too close,same applies to Mandera,Turkana,Kilifi, and others.

[Kadudu]

Pundit likes to dream the world the way he wants to have it.
How can Siaya election be a close race? Even if a not ODM person were to become governor of Siaya, he would still have to be pro-Raila.

It's not that they are too close,it's the way you want them to be.You are not being objective,for instance in kisii,Arati is polling over 50% with closest competitor doing  less than 20%,how is that too close,same applies to Mandera,Turkana,Kilifi, and others.

[RV Pundit]

You're reading your own things.
I am very objective on these things because I want to get it right.
Yes Siaya is AZIMIO contest but it's close btw Gumbo and Orengo.
Gumbo merged with Owino. Gumbo came very close to Rasanga in 2017.
This time round I think they will beat Orengo - who has bad reputation when it comes to development.
Rasanga also came from popolous Alego - Orengo is coming from huko Ugenya near Busia...least popolous in Siaya.
Remember Siaya is clannism or sub-tribe - Sakwas (Raila and Bondo-Rarieda) - Alegos - Gems - Ugenyas - those are sub-tribes of Luos.
I believe the Alegos-Gem are the most popolous.
I think Owino is from one of those - Gem maybe - and Gumbo from Bondo.
Most governors are elected based on development - not really SIASA moto moto - Orengo is not dev type.


I think ODM/Raila will even things out for Orengo - so it's TOO CLOSE to call - and I really cannot say if Gumbo will finally make it or not.

Pundit likes to dream the world the way he wants to have it.
How can Siaya election be a close race? Even if a not ODM person were to become governor of Siaya, he would still have to be pro-Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Unless you give me opinion poll raw data - some of those opinion polls I dismiss when it come to governorship.
Gusii is CLANISM 101. So where did you sample? All the 8-10 const? or you went round one or two?
There are 8 clans all who seem to have a candidate.
Yes Arati has a lead but he comes from a small clan. He has merged with Onyonka who comes from Kitutu - but current governor who is also Kitutu - the most popolous is opposed to him - and is backing Obure.
Prof Ongeri come from another big clan - related to Kitutus - and is of course going to run away with his clan.
The old senile Obure - is also popular in his clan
Machogu of UDA is also popular in his clan - Mugirangos (Gucha district of the yore - with Obure)

In short I expect Gusii to be won by very tiny margins. Arati is favourite but it's too CLOSE TO CALL. I think winner will get 35 percent - it's anybody game - because those gusii will vote clans - they live clans - they drink clans.

Arati has youth and party - Gusii have really old politicians - Ongeri, Obure, Angwenyi - are 83-85yrs old - you get a sense there will be youthful revolution - but watch out again for old clannism.

Nyamira - current governor come from popolous clan and maybe win in Matiangi party - UDA walter nyambati is also strong.

Predicting Gusii - Nyamira and Kisii - is not easy. Those people will quarrel to the polling day.

Mandera (so many candidates), Turkana (3 candidates - UDA, ODM, Jubilee), Kilifi ( 3 horse race - ODM/UDA/PAA - again Giriam are majority - but other sub tribes are also key - Chonyis, Rabai - I think Aisha is real threat because she has Malindi).

So my friend before you blurt NONSENSE STUDY THESE THINGS.

It's not that they are too close,it's the way you want them to be.You are not being objective,for instance in kisii,Arati is polling over 50% with closest competitor doing  less than 20%,how is that too close,same applies to Mandera,Turkana,Kilifi, and others.

[RV Pundit]

And I think Mombasa is moving to TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

SONKO MOTO YA KUOTEA MBALI

[Fish Mooney]

I don't trust most briefcase polls which could be cooked. Or just wrong. Like this Arati 54% seems out there. Naturally I equally take Pundit and his Mizani with a big dose of salt.

I wish Ipsos, Infotrak, Tifa had consistent polls.. but now hii Mizani sijui Kurunzi nope. Zero track record.

Kurunzi Africa has released results of an opinion poll conducted between 1st April and 15th April 2022 where 2967 participants took place, the poll shows ODM candidate who is the current MP for Dagoretti North Paul Simba Arati is leading with a huge gap at 54.2%, Ezekiel Machogu of United democratic alliance is second with 18.5%, Chris Obure of Jubilee is third with 6.9%, Samson Ongeri of DAP-K is fourth with 6.5%, other candidates have 3.7% and undecided voters are 10.2%.

https://ke.opera.news/ke/en/politics/308a8f8c5755279b62e785a1b19276bc

It's not that they are too close,it's the way you want them to be.You are not being objective,for instance in kisii,Arati is polling over 50% with closest competitor doing  less than 20%,how is that too close,same applies to Mandera,Turkana,Kilifi, and others.