Author Topic: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next  (Read 12193 times)

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2022, 09:59:01 AM »

Kadudu  , Hiding from what ? I pointed out "Could be"  Not unless you dont know the difference between Will be , Would be and Could be.
I took the wait and see approach. If you analyze the political results deeply you will come with a different opinion.

Just prior to elections I even posted opinion polls (European are credible ) showing Macron would win .

And yes was routing for a Le Pen win for reasons stated earlier.


Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.

Btw, the number 3 in the elections Mélenchon with his 22% has told his supporters no one vote for Marine Le Pen. So now you can continue talking of Macron in past tense.


The total votes for the far rightare about 30%. Add a few more far left who will vote for Le Pen comes up to about 40%. The socialists and conservertives cannot vote for Le pen. Her chances of getting 50% are much less than Macron. In 2017 Macron had after the first round 24% and Le Pen 21%.

Offline Fish Mooney

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2022, 11:55:31 AM »
 :) dude is always lecturing everyone but has endless excuses when he loses.

Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.
"I'm Yours
You're mine
Like Paradise  ~ song by Sade https://tinyurl.com/yc5hvdc8

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2022, 12:20:41 PM »

Robina , I take my losses with stride , Unlike you once I know the team or person Im supporting is going to lose I always accept before hand  . Im not a wishful thinker or live in self deceit lime you.
Following are some of the events i supported and didnt end up winning
Uhuru 2002
Ruto 2010
Sonkos Impeachment
Waigurus Impeachment
Matungu Kabuchai By election.

you always live in dreamland and when you lose you take a sabatical. I always agree with the situation before hand and take it with stride.

 Bwlo
:) dude is always lecturing everyone but has endless excuses when he loses.

Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.

Offline audacityofhope

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #43 on: April 25, 2022, 03:33:13 PM »
Lecturing who? You mean to this day, there are those of you here who find time to read through what this moderator-certified "low IQ" scatter brain's posts? Granted all members are allowed to post stuff; but this one spectacularly abuses that right - always on the wrong side of history - while consuming precious cyberspace real estate, in volumes that only come close to the other guy who is always here 24/7. As far as I am concerned, when this fellow posts, he is for all intensive purposes, talking to himself. I never respond. You can only respond to something you have read - something sensible of course, analysis that is well thought out.

:) dude is always lecturing everyone but has endless excuses when he loses.

Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.

Offline audacityofhope

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #44 on: April 25, 2022, 03:43:50 PM »
Yeah he is gone..the French distrust politicians and now COVID plus Ukraine war..hard to see folks giving incumbents a second chance.They will punish sitting gov
Who is gone Mr.-I-have-been-blogging-for-30-years? And oh, and I read elsewhere, you just gave yourself a new name: In-2002-I-was-very-young.

@Noway with all his flaws at least is honest on the little things, like being truthful that in 2002 he was of age and called that election wrong.

Following are some of the events i supported and didnt end up winning
Uhuru 2002
Ruto 2010
Sonkos Impeachment
Waigurus Impeachment
Matungu Kabuchai By election.

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2022, 05:24:50 PM »
Trump pro-Russia will be a card Dems will play but will not work. Midterms will be truthteller.

Dems should lose Mid-terms and that is the general expectation.  But Republicans are weird for lack of a better term.  The people they are putting out there are not normal to put it mildly.  The candidates making it through their Primaries are the kind of crackpots that can appeal to the Trump base.  For the most part, there are no sane Republicans running.  Outside of heavily gerrymandered districts, that is a recipe for losing in the general.  On that basis alone, Dems might just squeak back in.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #46 on: April 25, 2022, 05:40:04 PM »
I changed my mind when I realized he was facing far right racist. No way Le pen was going to win. If it was good candidate; it would be a different story.
Yeah he is gone..the French distrust politicians and now COVID plus Ukraine war..hard to see folks giving incumbents a second chance.They will punish sitting gov
Who is gone Mr.-I-have-been-blogging-for-30-years? And oh, and I read elsewhere, you just gave yourself a new name: In-2002-I-was-very-young.

@Noway with all his flaws at least is honest on the little things, like being truthful that in 2002 he was of age and called that election wrong.

Following are some of the events i supported and didnt end up winning
Uhuru 2002
Ruto 2010
Sonkos Impeachment
Waigurus Impeachment
Matungu Kabuchai By election.

Offline Kadudu

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #47 on: April 25, 2022, 05:55:42 PM »
Why do you bother to comment when you have no clue on French politics? That name Le Pen has been featuring in French far right politics for the last 30 years. Marine Le Pen has been in the runoff of presidential elections now two times. Before her the father Jean-Marie Le Pen was also in the run-off for the presidency.

I changed my mind when I realized he was facing far right racist. No way Le pen was going to win. If it was good candidate; it would be a different story.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #48 on: April 25, 2022, 08:05:25 PM »

No Coment . When you indulge a fool people from a distance cant tell who is who.....

Lecturing who? You mean to this day, there are those of you here who find time to read through what this moderator-certified "low IQ" scatter brain's posts? Granted all members are allowed to post stuff; but this one spectacularly abuses that right - always on the wrong side of history - while consuming precious cyberspace real estate, in volumes that only come close to the other guy who is always here 24/7. As far as I am concerned, when this fellow posts, he is for all intensive purposes, talking to himself. I never respond. You can only respond to something you have read - something sensible of course, analysis that is well thought out.

:) dude is always lecturing everyone but has endless excuses when he loses.

Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2022, 08:08:43 PM »
My general tenure was simple - incumbents will face rough time in times when economy is tough. That is general rule. Of course I dont bother with French politics. My speciality is Kenyan politics. I made one comment and that was that. I quickly checked and found out Le Pen was racist daughter the racist Le Pen...no way he can win in France.
Why do you bother to comment when you have no clue on French politics? That name Le Pen has been featuring in French far right politics for the last 30 years. Marine Le Pen has been in the runoff of presidential elections now two times. Before her the father Jean-Marie Le Pen was also in the run-off for the presidency.

I changed my mind when I realized he was facing far right racist. No way Le pen was going to win. If it was good candidate; it would be a different story.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next
« Reply #50 on: April 26, 2022, 12:19:29 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214460

French president has achieved before: winning re-election while still being in charge of his own government.

The centrist president's victory over Marine Le Pen may have been convincing, but he has a problem. There are new elections around the corner to France's National Assembly and a big section of the electorate dislikes him.

"There is a lot of hate," sociologist Michel Wieviorka told the BBC. "He said last night 'I am happy' but I don't think he can be totally happy because there are plenty of clouds in his sky."

Politically, if he fares badly in the June elections, he could end up losing his majority and may not be able to form his own government. That's why his opponents are calling the next vote a "third round".

Why would that matter if he's just won 58.5% of the national vote?

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Many of his voters are not natural supporters and are unlikely to back him in June. A large number of far-left voters held their noses to keep the far right out of power, but then there are also a number of mainstream parties that threw their weight behind him too, including the Republicans, Greens and Socialists.

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One opinion poll indicated that 63% of voters would rather he lost his majority and had to share power with an opposition government, known in France as "co-habitation".

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has designs on becoming prime minister himself. If that were to happen, there would be little love lost between him and the president. He claimed that Mr Macron had won the vote with the worst result in French history. Even if he was wrong, it was still a valid point that more than a third of voters had either stayed away from the election or voted for no candidate at all.

France's election winner is therefore a man in a hurry. He wants to rush through important reforms to persuade a jaded electorate to vote for his party.

Within days, he needs to form a new government, replacing Prime Minister Jean Castex, who led France through the Covid pandemic.

Labour Minister Elisabeth Borne is seen as a popular choice, because she has a strong record on social issues and it is social reforms that are his priority right now.

Mr Macron is also believed to want a woman in the job.

And she seems to understand the need for speed - especially when it comes to the issue which dominated both rounds of the presidential election: the cost of living that is causing a headache across French society and became the focus of Marine Le Pen's campaign.

"We need to provide quick answers," she said.

Indeed, within hours of the election result, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire promised to keep in place a price cap on gas and electricity price rises until the end of 2022.

But spending is just one of four priorities Macron needs to push in the coming weeks, according to Junior Economy Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher. The environment, education, and health are also key, with green issues a particular priority for younger voters.

And don't forget, 41% of 18 to 24-year-olds did not bother to vote on Sunday.

ANALYSIS: Historic win but Macron has polarised FrancePROFILE: Macron: From political outsider to president

But the flagship reform Macron is really determined to push through is controversial: raising the pension age from 62 to 65.

However, government spokesman Gabriel Attal has promised the Macron administration is in listening mode.

He insisted there would be a change of approach over the next five years, and on pensions they would redouble consultation to "hear people's anxieties".

Asking the French people to work three more years before they collect their pensions is not exactly a popular move, so Mr Macron is at pains to say he is flexible on how it is brought in and when. And yet his finance minister did not rule out forcing it through without a vote if they had to.

For a president sometimes dubbed Jupiter for perceived arrogance, observers see this as a critical moment for him to adapt.

"He must accept the idea that negotiation is important, it doesn't mean top-down decisions," says Michel Wieviorka. "I think it's difficult for him psychologically and culturally to change to a more democratic way of politics."

In his victory speech, Mr Macron declared he was no longer a candidate in one camp but the president for everybody. No-one would be left by the wayside, he vowed.

He also insisted that the next five years would be handled differently from the last, without explaining how. He may not have long to prove it