Lee is more lethal if DCP had gotten him. Karanja can only hope to win Kikuyu votes at 50%; he will need to win all of them to win; impossible;
Anyway expect 3 horse race btw Lee vs Susan vs Karanja.
All of them will play around 30%.
Ruto will decide because he will give his candidate Kalenjin 35%
So Susan likely to win by just getting little more of his own - so hapo 45-50%.
But again Lee is the big spoiler as he is likely to get all voters from all the tribes.