Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.

[RV Pundit]

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1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

[bryan275]

Secession is also an option.  It's looking more viable by the day.  Nobody wants to be ruled by the murderous power hungry criminal scumbags.

[Kichwa]

You told Ouru to steal the elections and assured him the SCOK will uphold the rigged elections.  Now Ouru is frustrated, his legacy is on the line and he is drinking like a fish.

Here is my take:

1) NASA's reform demands are met-we go to the elections-NASA wins.

1) NASA'S demands are NOT met.  There is no legitimate elections held  and the country plunges into a constitutional crisis until a credible election is held.

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

[vooke]

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing.

But that was in a movie.

[Kadame7]

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing. [/b][/u][/size]

But that was in a movie.

What did he mean? Because it'll leave you disappointed?

[Kichwa]

The cackling of hyenas.

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing.

But that was in a movie.

[patel]

The only desperate party in all these games is jubilee.  They are stuck in no man's land politically.  They never prepared or forecast elections being nullified.  Now JEBC has to be reformed to IEBC but jubilee despite having the so called numbers would have none of it. Election most likely will not happen till next year but the longer the stalemate continues the more the economy will continue to suffer.

[vooke]

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing. [/b][/u][/size]

But that was in a movie.

What did he mean? Because it'll leave you disappointed?

Kadame I don't want to give you spoiler.
Red (Freeman) after several decades behind bars settled for the fact that he'd never see outside. He says he has seen newer inmates going mad after their hopes of freedom are slowly crushed by reality. So he is cautioning one such Dufrense against such lofty dreams.

Watch to find out why he was wrong. Best movie with very engaging dialogue

[RV Pundit]

With no known path to victory NASA best foot forward is 2008 Zim Tsavingirai move.Jubilee  should proceed with elections with or without NASA coz they Parliament and rest of Gok intact.

[vooke]

With no known path to victory NASA best foot forward is 2008 Zim Tsavingirai move.Jubilee  should proceed with elections with or without NASA coz they Parliament and rest of Gok intact.

Stop rubbing it in

[Omollo]

Just to remind you that Uhuru did not win in 2013 and not the last election either. The idea of a bigger Computer Generated Victory margin is a joke. NASA is trying to ensure that every vote counts by demanding common sense adherence to the law.

Please explain why the minimum demands that NASA is demanding would disadvantage Uhuru Kenyatta? What is in the those demands that Jubilee finds likely to work against their fair interests? Is it because it would deny Chirchir (and his spanner boy) the chance to vote for 15M Kenyans?

Jubilee will lose a fair election without any question and you know it. Kenyans are tired of the thieves.

What is irking you - for REAL - is that;

1. you see the sensible demands by NASA, the EU and ALL the Western Countries (who I nearly thought were your pals) cannot possibly be met by Jubilee. It is the same as taking the liver out of a human being and expecting him to live!
2 You fear that in the end a Transitional Government (GONU) is inevitable and Ruto - like Kalonzo in 2008 NARA - would be a sure casualty! In short you are William Ruto's voice crying out

Incidentally why did Ruto jump the gun and appoint Balala to run the campaign when Uhuru wanted someone else? Is he no longer being listened to? Like I told you, I see one option for Ruto: Tacitly support NASA to eliminate Uhuru Presidency. The prize for him: saving his own life.

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

[RV Pundit]

Elections are not won on technicalities. They are won by getting most votes. Jubilee has most votes - GEMA alone pack 6M punch - that reliably turn out to vote. Add Kalenjin 2.5m plus votes - and before you start - you've already lost. I said this in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. That remain the elephant in the house. Before 8.8 - you went crazy with crazy court cases and finally declared elections were "unriggable" after Isaac team left and all sort of reforms via parliament & court case were enacted - and yet you lost by even bigger margin than 2013.

Jubilee I don't have any problem with any sensible reforms. Obviously there is time - we only have less less than 30 days to lapse of 60 days. We've have had 30yrs of electoral reforms since 92 election....and so to suddenly get 100 list of irreducible demands clearly point at party not ready for elections.

NASA has no leverage - Jubilee enjoy near super-majority in parliament - governors & their county gok are in office and don't want NASA shenagians -  the violence/demo card is laughable (will only fly in Kondele, Kibera and Mathare), the international community are not biting it (due to the fact that NASA cannot get violence outside Kondele, Kibera and Mathare) and so we are left with one possibility - Uhuru Kenyatta complete his 5 terms.

And William Ruto start his own in 2022.

Just to remind you that Uhuru did not win in 2013 and not the last election either. The idea of a bigger Computer Generated Victory margin is a joke. NASA is trying to ensure that every vote counts by demanding common sense adherence to the law.

Please explain why the minimum demands that NASA is demanding would disadvantage Uhuru Kenyatta? What is in the those demands that Jubilee finds likely to work against their fair interests? Is it because it would deny Chirchir (and his spanner boy) the chance to vote for 15M Kenyans?

Jubilee will lose a fair election without any question and you know it. Kenyans are tired of the thieves.

What is irking you - for REAL - is that;

1. you see the sensible demands by NASA, the EU and ALL the Western Countries (who I nearly thought were your pals) cannot possibly be met by Jubilee. It is the same as taking the liver out of a human being and expecting him to live!
2 You fear that in the end a Transitional Government (GONU) is inevitable and Ruto - like Kalonzo in 2008 NARA - would be a sure casualty! In short you are William Ruto's voice crying out

Incidentally why did Ruto jump the gun and appoint Balala to run the campaign when Uhuru wanted someone else? Is he no longer being listened to? Like I told you, I see one option for Ruto: Tacitly support NASA to eliminate Uhuru Presidency. The prize for him: saving his own life.

[RV Pundit]

Totally agree with Tuju: Raila is afraid of another dog-beating.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee-and-Nasa-fight-over-repeat-elections/1056-4100482-gdn3ayz/index.html
 “Nasa knows they cannot win this election. That is why they have hatched a plot against the IEBC. Their tactics are diversionary to avoid a shame of losing an election twice.”
“Desperate situations call for desperate measures that is why Nasa is busy accusing everybody instead of planning for the coming elections,” he said.

[bryan275]

Totally agree with Tuju: Raila is afraid of another dog-beating.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee-and-Nasa-fight-over-repeat-elections/1056-4100482-gdn3ayz/index.html
 “Nasa knows they cannot win this election. That is why they have hatched a plot against the IEBC. Their tactics are diversionary to avoid a shame of losing an election twice.”
“Desperate situations call for desperate measures that is why Nasa is busy accusing everybody instead of planning for the coming elections,” he said.

Hii ni porojo tu ya Jubilee.  These are are true tribal voter numbers:

Jubilee:

Gema- 2.8m

Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.

[RV Pundit]

Nice fart. Central Prov alone where Kikuyus makes 97% of population except in Kiambu (8%) has 2.9M registered votes. Add Nairobi Kikuyus. Add Kikuyus in RV( Nakuru,Uasin Gishu, Laikipia,Kajiado,Tranzoia& Narok). I think you're inhaling something illegal.
   Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes   
1   Kiambu   1173593
2   Nakuru   948668
3   Meru   712378
4   Murang’a   590775
5   Nyeri   460806
6   Kericho   379815
7   Kirinyaga   351162
8   Nandi   349340
9   Nyandaua   336322
10   Bomet   325606
11   Embu   315668
12   Laikipia   239497
13   Baringo   227918
14   TharakaNithi   216522
15   ElgeyoMarakwet   178989
16   WestPokot   178989
17   UasinGishu   451485
18   Nairobi   40%
19   Kajiado   30%
20   Narok   40%
21   TranNzoia   40%
      8750000 - let's ignore GEMA+Kalenjin in elsewhere like Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Isiolo, name it.

45% - of registered votes - who reliably turned out - at 10-20% above the national average - that pumps that another 2-3% to around 48%.

UhuRuto to win this just need 300,000 votes from rest of kabilas.

In short there is NO WAY in hell or heaven where UhuRuto loses any to Mr Odinga.

Jubilee:
Gema- 2.8m
Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.

[bryan275]

Nice fart. Central Prov alone where Kikuyus makes 97% of population except in Kiambu (8%) has 2.9M registered votes. Add Nairobi Kikuyus. Add Kikuyus in RV( Nakuru,Uasin Gishu, Laikipia,Kajiado,Tranzoia& Narok). I think you're inhaling something illegal.
   Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes   
1   Kiambu   1173593
2   Nakuru   948668
3   Meru   712378
4   Murang’a   590775
5   Nyeri   460806
6   Kericho   379815
7   Kirinyaga   351162
8   Nandi   349340
9   Nyandaua   336322
10   Bomet   325606
11   Embu   315668
12   Laikipia   239497
13   Baringo   227918
14   TharakaNithi   216522
15   ElgeyoMarakwet   178989
16   WestPokot   178989
17   UasinGishu   451485
18   Nairobi   40%
19   Kajiado   30%
20   Narok   40%
21   TranNzoia   40%
      8750000 - let's ignore GEMA+Kalenjin in elsewhere like Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Isiolo, name it.

45% - of registered votes - who reliably turned out - at 10-20% above the national average - that pumps that another 2-3% to around 48%.

UhuRuto to win this just need 300,000 votes from rest of kabilas.

In short there is NO WAY in hell or heaven where UhuRuto loses any to Mr Odinga.

Jubilee:
Gema- 2.8m
Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.

We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?

[RV Pundit]

Are you really a bean counter? I won't want you doing my books. Transnzoia tribal maths is out there. Luhya 52%,Kalenjin 30%,Gikuyu 10% & others 8%.  Maths or figures are facts that you cannot argue with. You're just yelling like a fool when you clearly know that GEMA+Kalenjin is huge juggernaut that gonna crush Raila balls for third time..or is it the 10th time since 1982.

We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?

[bryan275]

Are you really a bean counter? I won't want you doing my books. Transnzoia tribal maths is out there. Luhya 52%,Kalenjin 30%,Gikuyu 10% & others 8%.  Maths or figures are facts that you cannot argue with. You're just yelling like a fool when you clearly know that GEMA+Kalenjin is huge juggernaut that gonna crush Raila balls for third time..or is it the 10th time since 1982.

We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?

Don't worry about what I do for a living.  I wouldn't let you anywhere near anything I'm doing.   The figures are saying that Jubilee does not have the numbers to win.  Screaming and crying does not change that fact.   I agree with you 100% of  facts and figures.

[Fish Mooney]

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.

[RV Pundit]

What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.