Check MOASS for what i think each tribe will vote as of now.
What I know kenya politics in Ngumu.
You win Sifuna Luhya - you lose Kambas & Gusii to Ruto.
So the opposition are only solid in Murima - mostly West - 20%.
Ruto has solid base of almost 35% - if you remove ODM.
The rest will depend on how ODM plays (Luo+coast+ some Luhyas), Sifuna splinter who ODM or Wamalwa DAP?, Kalonzo moves where? Matiangi moves here?
So it easy - get and excel - show me opposition winning maths - where it satisfies Kalonzo, Sifuna, Matiangi, Gachagua, Uhuru, Ndidi - NGUMU sana.
Ruto has easiest job because even worse scenario has him at 40% plus core --- and all he need to hawk in DPORK to get 10%.
So far ODM-UDA/KK are very close to having united front - nearly at 50% - only problem is Murima East - that is what is making Ruto wake up at night to grind numbers.
Will Kindiki deliver or not - should he get fired?
Kenya siasa ni ngumu and we have 9 months to go
Your position has previously been that Opposition is confined to Mt Kenya/Ukambani.
Glad to see that after much denial, acceptance stage has reached that is has now spread to Bukusus.
Soon, you will overcome the denial and accept that Opposition has spread to the whole of Luhyaland + Kisiis + half of Somali + half of Coast.
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