My thinking on the MOASS:
1) It contains an inherent bias (not deliberate) to the benefit of WSR on account of the following
i) WSR already has a team/coalition complete with a prez candidate (WSR) + running mate (Kindiki), whereas the opposition is yet to coalesce around a team (Prez candidate/DP/PM etc
ii) The MOASS assumes that the opposition candidates are running not only separately (Melon, Sifuna, Gachagua etc), but also against each other.
iii) Building on (ii) above, we know that in political math, 1+1 = 2.5. Meaning that when a candidate with 10% joining another with 10% will bump up the total to above 20%, due to bandwagon effect
iv) The MOASS assumes that WSR can maintain both the so-called Mt Kenya East AND Luo Nyanza. Yet we know that there is a direct competition btn the two for DP. Get one and lose some support in the other
v) I have already addressed the disparities in projected turnouts
That said, I will proceed to paint my own maths with a broad brush due to the currently fluid nature of the political landscape:
A) The opposition remains united against WSR
B) With A above, i foresee the political clustering as follows-
a) Western Kenya (Luo Nyanza - Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira, TransNzoia).
- in here, I see a 50:50 sharing between WSR and the opposition due to BroadBase arrangement on the side of WSR and Sifuna/Orengo/Matian'gi effect on the side of the opposition.
- essentially, this is a dead heat between the WSR and the opposition
b) Kamatusa belt (Kalenjin Counties - Bomet, Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, EMC, Baringo, West Pokot, Maa - Kajiado, Narok, Samburu, Ateker (Turkana)
- here I give WSR 90% and opposition 10%
c) GEMA + Akamba (Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui)
- here I give WSR 10% and opposition 90%.
d) Coast + NE (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Msa, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo)
- here I give WSR 67% and the opposition 33%. On account of non-native population in coast (Akamba, Luo,Luhya, GEMA) and the usual split in clan support among the Somali, Borana
e) Nairobi
Given the distribution of the ethnic polities in Nairobi in (a) to (d) above, I give WSR 25% and the opposition 75%.
Plugging these into RVPundit's very robust model, this throws out the following numbers:
WSR 42%
Opposition 58%.
Thank you for your kind words.
Again you make accusation that are false and try to ascribe bias where none exists.
1) Turn out - you cried - said I played around it. I never touched turnout. Not with my hands. The other stuff I didnt touch is registration of 2022, 2026, 2027 - all these are AI project.
Claude estimate we will have declining turnout -
One important finding worth flagging: Kenya's turnout hasn't been growing across cycles — it's been falling every election since 2010:
2013: 85.9% (IEBC actual)
2017: 79.5% (IEBC actual)
2022: 64.8% (IEBC actual)
That's a real, steady decline, not growth. Extrapolating that trend (via linear regression)
on, which lines up closely with the average per-cycle drop) projects ~54% turnout nationally for 2027 — a continuation of the same trajectory, not a rebound.
2) Only tinkering I did - was to tell AI - keep Kikuyus & Kalenjin turnout 10% higher - which similar to 2022 as they are likely going to be very motivated. I would normally add Luos - those 3 are very good historically in turnout - but Luos this time round I dont see them turning out that much.
3) I don't see any major disagreement on how I assign tribal numbers - maybe Luo 85% - can we go with 65%? What else is your beef? Just give me the numbers you think my Kalenjin ethno-nationalism got in their way.
4) I think you know Ruto having captured ODM and with Raila dead was always going to be hard to beat - you should handle that part rather maturely.
I have said this before, and I will repeat it:
RVPundit,
1) I admire the time, energy, dedication you take to
i) assemble the MOASS
ii) Publish it for public review and critic.
Very few of us have the intellect to do carry out such an exercise, and even fewer have the balls to publish it for all to see. For that, I must take my hat off.
2) Your Kalenjin ethno-jingoism here and elsewhere is rather nauseating. And it is clouding your predictive acumen, in a desperate attempt to have a Kalenjin win.
- look at the maths as it is, (as you have been doing in the past), not as you want the maths to be so as to reach a pre-determined outcome.
The Ol Kalou prediction, even with Mizani polls which you say you are credible, was a case of the latter (ethno-nationalism) overcoming the former (predictive acumen). And this MOASS just proves the same.
Still a long way to go though - Kenyan siasa is about to see re-alignments in the next 8 months that will leave us MOAStounded
My official prediction for Olkalua was DCP win of 55 versus UDA 45%;
Well UDA definitely gave it all;
And I was kinda expecting either Kipipiri (which happened) or them to be swayed by goodies - but it wasnt close.
Anyway Mizani are quite good and have excellent record - unfortunately they have stopped realizing polls quite often
I think Ruto will perform very well in Luos for many reason 1) Many powerful positions 2) Many development projects 3) hatred/rivarly with kikuyus 4) 99% of ODM are in Broad-based bar Orengo who is unpopular and Babu who wishes he was Sifuna getting the headlines.
I see 10% knock off because some Raila diehards will be mourning and I see 10% lower tunrout.
And yet when Mizani predicted UDA was losing with 18% in Ol Kalou by-election, you predicted a 55% UDA win.
That 85% for WSR in Luo Nyanza is equally a mirage.
