It’s Matiangi, Sifuna ticket

[Fish Mooney]

Luhya, Luo, MKE - these 3 remain your miscalculation.

Ruto was deploy an entire battalion to kidnap or disappear people in Malava and Mbeere. After that noone bothered to show up for Malava 2 &  Mbeere 2. Obviously such brute force is unscalable to nationally without going full Suluhu- or M7 mode.

If you want to get legit Luhya numbers look at Kisa and Chwele/Kabuchai. Ford-K is resisting UDA merger for fear of being wiped out by DAP-K.

Luo is far from Ruto consensus. There are some silent/ambivalent MPs not just Orengo and moneybag Caroli Omondi. Likes of Gem Elisha Omondi, Mark Nyamita, Shakeel Shabir, Rongo Paul Abuor are at best 50-50. This is because there is no Raila to defy so they won't care who is at the top.

Siasa is not rocket science - for someone with your IQ.
1) Natembeya mambo yake ilizimwa in Malava 1 & 2 - he has now run to Tranzaoia where he desperate to defend his seat. Mambo ya Tawe aliwacha.
2) Sifuna ni moto ya karatasi - he run juzi kwao - he got 3,000 votes - he nothing in Bukusu and nothing in Luhya. He doesnt have MCAs/MPS following him.

So Luhyas 15% - giving opposition 5% is being super-generous - Ruto could as well carry 80% of it or more - considering expressway and SGRS etc.
Luos is easy - just follow indicators from MPs/MCas/Governors - all point consensus to support Ruto - bar Orengo and Babu.

Babu is playing himself offside because Nairobi governor is GACHAGUA big price -plus 7 governorship of kikuyu majority counties - so hapo ataona viusasa.
Sifuna will have to join DCP and become their senate candidate - once the current moto ya karatasi iishe

[RV Pundit]

At least we can agree there are indicators to watch as we approach 2022 - and those are mcas, mps, governors, senators - including former - they are best signal of the ground.

Luhya, Luo, MKE - these 3 remain your miscalculation.

Ruto was deploy an entire battalion to kidnap or disappear people in Malava and Mbeere. After that noone bothered to show up for Malava 2 &  Mbeere 2. Obviously such brute force is unscalable to nationally without going full Suluhu- or M7 mode.

If you want to get legit Luhya numbers look at Kisa and Chwele/Kabuchai. Ford-K is resisting UDA merger for fear of being wiped out by DAP-K.

Luo is far from Ruto consensus. There are some silent/ambivalent MPs not just Orengo and moneybag Caroli Omondi. Likes of Gem Elisha Omondi, Mark Nyamita, Shakeel Shabir, Rongo Paul Abuor are at best 50-50. This is because there is no Raila to defy so they won't care who is at the top.

Siasa is not rocket science - for someone with your IQ.
1) Natembeya mambo yake ilizimwa in Malava 1 & 2 - he has now run to Tranzaoia where he desperate to defend his seat. Mambo ya Tawe aliwacha.
2) Sifuna ni moto ya karatasi - he run juzi kwao - he got 3,000 votes - he nothing in Bukusu and nothing in Luhya. He doesnt have MCAs/MPS following him.

So Luhyas 15% - giving opposition 5% is being super-generous - Ruto could as well carry 80% of it or more - considering expressway and SGRS etc.
Luos is easy - just follow indicators from MPs/MCas/Governors - all point consensus to support Ruto - bar Orengo and Babu.

Babu is playing himself offside because Nairobi governor is GACHAGUA big price -plus 7 governorship of kikuyu majority counties - so hapo ataona viusasa.
Sifuna will have to join DCP and become their senate candidate - once the current moto ya karatasi iishe

[Fish Mooney]

Yes leaders are a good indicator to watch. It is just too early right now to say how many MPs, etc are with Oburu vs Orengos.

MT KENYA I expect Kikuyu to be wholesale DCP-aligned towards end of 2026. Meru & Embu will be usual Munya PNU and Mbus local but PORK will be DCP. Tharaka will likely stick with Kindiki/UDA. If Ruto were to dump Kindiki for ODM there will be protest vote. I am actually not sold by your confidence of Ruto retaining Kindiki. If dwarf can't deliver solid block Ruto might cut his losses.

LUHYA seems palpably rebellious. My reading of why United Opposition is now leaning Kalonzo-Matiang'i is that Uhuru has stopped fence-sitting with Matiang'i made Jubilee deputy party leader. It is easy to conceive Matiang'i is aiming for the sun to land the moon, He is Uhuru horse in the game. You watch Eugene closely - DAP-K is angling for Speaker/CS/etc not PORK or DPORK. I think Luhya will largely remain as-is i.e. no big shifts/defections to & fro the 2 big camps. Why? DAP-K politics of Natembeyas is Luhya/Murembe tawe grievance/populism - very anti-incumbent so that they cannot credibly switch sides without destroying their brand. Besides few Osotsi and Caleb Amisi there is not much bickering to expect. Khalwales, Panyakos will of course go for governor,MP, etc as DAP-K. Shida will be Broad-Based side: UDA vs ODM vs Ford-K zoning will be big war there.

LUO that DPORK maneno is potentially explosive. Even if Ruto dump Kindiki there is still Joho vs Mbadi problem. But I expect rebels/rivals like Oyugi Magwanga to go independent and either back Kalonzo or stay neutral for PORK. Depending on the ground. From the oil scandal with calls for Wandayi to resign you can tell ODM will inherit Ruto's incumbency baggage and will be cornered by Babu-Orengo positioning as reformers. You will note too Babu-Orengo brand make it impossible to join Ruto.

WILD CARD is Ruto move ala Kindiki. Not Babu or Natembeya or Matiang'i - smell the coffee those are gone.

At least we can agree there are indicators to watch as we approach 2022 - and those are mcas, mps, governors, senators - including former - they are best signal of the ground.

[Fish Mooney]

With Matiang'i write of Gusii from Ruto column. I read you saying something about Simba Arati. Won't be surprised if Machogu and Onyonkas join Jubilee. Arati need to go slow on the Ruto koolaid otherwise he will easily go home for selling pork in Saudia.

[Tactician]

ODM is Oburu. Luhyas you need Oparanya.  Gusii you need Arati.   Maasai you need Ole Kina.  The same Oburu/Arati/Ole Kina/Oparanya in ODM that have moved sequentially from demanding zoning to respect and have now decided to stop supporting WSR.

Clearly, that Sifuna/Babu/Orengo axis have hit the nerve with the ODM public and gained the upper hand in ODM - I won't be surprised to see their numbers swelling in Nakuru this weekend and Vihiga/Kisumu next weekend.

With fuel prices expected to continue increasing (Business Daily reported that our suppliers in the Govt-to-Gansta have warned us that fuel deliveries between May & Aug will be priced higher), I bet that the ODM Linda Tumbo have looked ahead 6 months and seen that inflation will ravage Kenyans and influence politics as we get to the October decision point.

October is a crucial month as it is 6 months to nominations in Mar/April - so anyone making political decisions has to at the latest align by then.  Jumping ship after that and you get the dregs of the political feast during nominations.

But what do I know about politics; lemme stop wasting y'all time with the Sifuna circus and get my remote + popcorn.

You clearly dont know politics and are wasting our time with Sifuna circus.
Politics is about ethnic kings and sub kings.
ODM is Oburu - then you go luhyas you need oparanya - gusii you need Arati - you go to Maasai you need wakina Ole kina
Coast - you need Joho - you go to SOmalis you need say Wajir.
You dont just run around headless eti Sifuna and Babu
You need to first convince the shareholders of  ethnic and sub ethnic groups that you have vision and they can buy into it.
So far from Luos, to Luhyas, to gusii, to matusa, nep and coast - ODM - are okay to buy time with Oburu odinga.

ODM as we knew it is no more.   Their talisman, RAO, is gone.  Hence the split we are seeing now.  So relying on the ODM of 2022 is a mirage.

As for Sifuna, counting his MPs is a misnomer - it's like counting how many MCAs Sakaja has since he hasn't been impeached.  Yet sentiment on the ground tells anyone with a nose that his kitchen is on fire. 

For Kindiki, the man is already smelling the rain that is about to fall on him.  Whether he is on the ticket or not, his people will abandon him.  That he got 50% in a byelection in his backyard, where he has incumbency + could concentrate forces in one constituency says a lot about his strength or lack thereof.

[Tactician]

3 months later, and here we are:

Kalonzo - Sifuna ticket is loading nicely.

Babu Owino will be sacrificed so that Mt Kenya gets invested in the campaign with DCP Nbi Governor.   Maybe he goes for Deputy Gvn?

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

[Fish Mooney]

Kalonzo-Sifuna need to slice Luo to wrap it up. They will give Babu governor. Most likely.

DCP will have 7-12 governors and many CSs from Kalonzo.

3 months later, and here we are:

Kalonzo - Sifuna ticket is loading nicely.

Babu Owino will be sacrificed so that Mt Kenya gets invested in the campaign with DCP Nbi Governor.   Maybe he goes for Deputy Gvn?

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

[Tactician]

No hope for Babu in the Nbi gvn seat. A Kalonzo-Sifuna-Gachagua-Matiang'i coalition easily defeats WSR even if WSR gets 100% of Luo vote. 

Question is how to motivate Mt Kenya to vote emphatically for Kalonzo-Sifuna, while Mt Kenya has no horse in the race (Prez/DP).   And this is where the Nbi gvn comes in.

Nbi has never had a Mt Kenya gvn despite multiple attempts.  By Mt Kenya supporting Prez/DP to Eastern/Western, a compromise for the Kambas/Luhyas/Kisiis to support Mt Kenya gvn for Nbi gvn is easy to sell logically & emotionally.

Then Mt Kenya will be heavily invested for maximum turnout that is necessary to bury WSR.

Otherwise, a Kalonzo-Sifuna-Babu ticket for the three most important elective seats in the country will leave Mt Kenya asking "What's in it for us? / Why wake up early to help your neighbour cross the river?"

Babu's best chance is Nbi deputy gvn, or go for Kisumu gvn where Anyang' Nyong'o is retiring

Kalonzo-Sifuna need to slice Luo to wrap it up. They will give Babu governor. Most likely.

DCP will have 7-12 governors and many CSs from Kalonzo.

3 months later, and here we are:

Kalonzo - Sifuna ticket is loading nicely.

Babu Owino will be sacrificed so that Mt Kenya gets invested in the campaign with DCP Nbi Governor.   Maybe he goes for Deputy Gvn?

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

[Fish Mooney]

Wear bitter RiggyG's hat:

If Ruto wins - besides your sweet revenge, you lose all the CSs and goodies you would get under Kalonzo. You need every vote to TKO Ruto -- Nairobi is a relatively small price to pay.

If Mbadi gets DPORK the math might not favor Babu because Luo will harden under Ruto. But as things stand the status quo favours Babu for governor because Luo are purple like Georgia.

There will be political theatre obviously. RiggyG will run for president until IEBC rejects his papers in May. Mlima will be enraged and blame Ruto 🙂 - Kalonzo will promise to rehabitate Riggy as soon as he is sworn in.

There will be MOU giving Mlima 40% cabinet, speaker, etc. Kalonzo at 74 will promise to be single-term transition president like Kibaki in 2002. 🙂

The rest will be history.

No hope for Babu in the Nbi gvn seat. A Kalonzo-Sifuna-Gachagua-Matiang'i coalition easily defeats WSR even if WSR gets 100% of Luo vote. 

Question is how to motivate Mt Kenya to vote emphatically for Kalonzo-Sifuna, while Mt Kenya has no horse in the race (Prez/DP).   And this is where the Nbi gvn comes in.

Nbi has never had a Mt Kenya gvn despite multiple attempts.  By Mt Kenya supporting Prez/DP to Eastern/Western, a compromise for the Kambas/Luhyas/Kisiis to support Mt Kenya gvn for Nbi gvn is easy to sell logically & emotionally.

Then Mt Kenya will be heavily invested for maximum turnout that is necessary to bury WSR.

Otherwise, a Kalonzo-Sifuna-Babu ticket for the three most important elective seats in the country will leave Mt Kenya asking "What's in it for us? / Why wake up early to help your neighbour cross the river?"

Babu's best chance is Nbi deputy gvn, or go for Kisumu gvn where Anyang' Nyong'o is retiring

Kalonzo-Sifuna need to slice Luo to wrap it up. They will give Babu governor. Most likely.

DCP will have 7-12 governors and many CSs from Kalonzo.

3 months later, and here we are:

Kalonzo - Sifuna ticket is loading nicely.

Babu Owino will be sacrificed so that Mt Kenya gets invested in the campaign with DCP Nbi Governor.   Maybe he goes for Deputy Gvn?

Naa

1) Matiangi/Sifuna is too western weighted - will seep Mt Kenya/Ukambani votes to WSR

2) Kalonzo/Matiangi would be ideal, but the two are old colorless men with no charisma - supresses vote turnout among the youth

The most optimal is Kalonzo/Sifuna.  covers both west & east/central kenya.   Adding Sifuna to Kalonzo brings freshness and charisma to the ticket.

[Fish Mooney]

Tactician has drunk RV Pundit's koolaid that Mlima are desperate for Nairobi governor. With 3 presidents seriously.

[Tactician]

Here we are.  Sifuna is wasting our time with the circus in western.

As for Oburu being ODM, here is what TIFA Research released today:

TIFA survey: 74% of ODM supporters throw their weight behind the Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction; 20% support the Oburu-led Linda Ground wing.   So much for WSR inheriting Baba's support base.

You clearly dont know politics and are wasting our time with Sifuna circus.
Politics is about ethnic kings and sub kings.
ODM is Oburu - then you go luhyas you need oparanya - gusii you need Arati - you go to Maasai you need wakina Ole kina
Coast - you need Joho - you go to SOmalis you need say Wajir.
You dont just run around headless eti Sifuna and Babu
You need to first convince the shareholders of  ethnic and sub ethnic groups that you have vision and they can buy into it.
So far from Luos, to Luhyas, to gusii, to matusa, nep and coast - ODM - are okay to buy time with Oburu odinga.

ODM as we knew it is no more.   Their talisman, RAO, is gone.  Hence the split we are seeing now.  So relying on the ODM of 2022 is a mirage.

As for Sifuna, counting his MPs is a misnomer - it's like counting how many MCAs Sakaja has since he hasn't been impeached.  Yet sentiment on the ground tells anyone with a nose that his kitchen is on fire. 

For Kindiki, the man is already smelling the rain that is about to fall on him.  Whether he is on the ticket or not, his people will abandon him.  That he got 50% in a byelection in his backyard, where he has incumbency + could concentrate forces in one constituency says a lot about his strength or lack thereof.

[Tactician]

BUT Sifuna has 2 MPs and no MCAs!

You mean kikuyus.
Because Kindiki is DPORK and 2032 front runner if ODM doesnt go for his seat.
Anyway, I dont think Sifuna can get any votes in Luhya - he simply has no support - 2 mps and no MCAS.
They are the latest circus in town.

Definitely opposition have tough jobs squaring circles.

For Ruto - it just to Keep Kindiki - and hold ODM - and he wins by 65%.

Sifuna gets DP position + Babu for Nbi governor & that 35% jumps past 55%. 

As for the Mountain, they are just desperate to remove WSR.  Then deal with consequences later. After all, they do not have any viable candidate in either WSR or opposition side & can afford to wait it out until they reorganise.

Some positions in govt, same as they have currently in WSR cabinet, are enough so long as they remove WSR.

I dont think Luhyas will bite such a deal.
So you're talking Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii ticket 35% core.
Then maybe 5% from elsewhere.
Max 40%.
This assuming kikuyu bite something that takes them OUT for 20yrs - no pork - no dpork - I find that laughable.
Kikuyus will insist on DPORK - at very least.

I am talking what the signals say not wishful thinking.

Kalonzo has PORK that's been clear for a year.

Natembeya was being floated when Matiang'i and Uhuru/Jubilee were non-committal. Now Matiang'i is back with a DPORK demand - that seems settled.
Natembeya has announced he is going for second term. There are videos of he and Eugene in Kitale saying this.

RiggyG is the ghost PM. No contest.

Eugene is poised for NA speaker or any CS he chooses. Along with Karua, JB Muturi and other flowergirls.

Sifuna and Babu are unopposed for senator and governor.
Sifuna probably gets Senate majority leader.

[Tactician]

Sifuna won't last 3 months in this circus!

Here we are 6months in; and Sifuna is now the main act.  Sifuna has captured the votes that WSR was hoping to inherit from ODM to replace the lost votes in Mt Kenya.

Oburu, who WSR was hoping would lead the fight for Tutam, is instead fighting for his life leaving ODM stranded without a leader

We have been doing political punditry for 30yrs now.
Sifuna wont even last 3 months in his circus.
He has no BUY IN.

I agree.

Oburu is the kingpin of ODM; Oparanya is the kingpin of Luhyas, Arati is the kingpin of Kisiis, and Joho is the kingpin in Coast.

2027 is just 16 months away

[RV Pundit]

Kwani Sifuna amedo? He has 3 Bukusu MPs? Two senators? Ama tuko Nchi ingine?
Actually 2 Bukusu mps - 2 senators in Ototsi and khawale - one ODM mp in Busia - and one governor Natembeya.
Rest of crew have been pulled out - Matiangi gusii back - Poor Kaloi Mps back to wiper.

ODM are campaigning jointly with Ruto.
As long as Oburu is alive - it all we need - Oburu kazi yake is to postphone ODM civil war until after election.
Sifuna as far as I can tell has replaced Wamalwa in the Jokers corner of Bukusu.

Most of you are amateurs in reading politics or desperate.

For now I'd be more woried about Kalonzo and Matiangi  gusii & kambas

Sifuna won't last 3 months in this circus!

Here we are 6months in; and Sifuna is now the main act.  Sifuna has captured the votes that WSR was hoping to inherit from ODM to replace the lost votes in Mt Kenya.

Oburu, who WSR was hoping would lead the fight for Tutam, is instead fighting for his life leaving ODM stranded without a leader

We have been doing political punditry for 30yrs now.
Sifuna wont even last 3 months in his circus.
He has no BUY IN.

I agree.

Oburu is the kingpin of ODM; Oparanya is the kingpin of Luhyas, Arati is the kingpin of Kisiis, and Joho is the kingpin in Coast.

2027 is just 16 months away