Uhuru should swallow his pride,Talk to Natembeya,Matiangi and Eugene who are his people and tell them to support Kalonzo.That will deliver the killer blow to this regime.kalonzo will gravitate towards 60% and Ruto will be completely locked out of Gusii,Nyamira,Kakamega,Vihiga and Bungoma.
Maybe he is supporting Kalonzo kichini chini.He matiangi and Natembeya should deliver the killer blow in February 2027.
In Sugoi and Bondo,they shall not believe.The wailling will be out of this world.
On that day Gachagua will drink Muratina to death while Mama Dorcass will caress him like a small boy while rekindling their fond youth memories to overcome the pain of the humiliating impeachment of the GEMA community.
I shall drink one 5 litre can of muratina in the slopes of Mt kenya.
The result will be most likely
Kalonzo +51% Vs Ruto +-45%
Ruto already know this,How will he stop it from happening because there is ABSOLUTELY NO PATHWAY TO RE-ELECTION.
I have given him 100% Turkana,Pokot,Jaluo,rigging and even somali which is IMPOSSIBLE even if he stuffs ballots,We even dont know how Jaluo turnout will be because there have no enthusiasim of being in the ballot.I doubt he will cross past 40% vote.
How will he handle defeat?
BOSS at least umeacha ujinga ya ati RiggyG should shun Kalonzo to run a one-man guitar with Methu and Gakuya. :)
DPORK will be GEMA.
Eugene will be senate speaker.
Martha Karua National assembly speaker.
Natembeya will be prime cabinet secretary.
Malala is headed for great things.His only problem is alcohol and sex with too many bitches.
Matiangi is the FOOL.He should form his own party.Unite Omogusii and become CS for Education and Interior.H
Another stupid IDIOt which belongs to hell is Ndindi,He should join DCP and become next CS for finance.
Ruto is not going to win anywhere in thos by-elections.He knows that.It will be UDA funeral.
The result will be most likely
Kalonzo +51% Vs Ruto +-45%
Ruto already know this,How will he stop it from happening because there is ABSOLUTELY NO PATHWAY TO RE-ELECTION.
I have given him 100% Turkana,Pokot,Jaluo,rigging and even somali which is IMPOSSIBLE even if he stuffs ballots,We even dont know how Jaluo turnout will be because there have no enthusiasim of being in the ballot.I doubt he will cross past 40% vote.
How will he handle defeat?
Pretty much.
Basically after Nov 27 if UDA crumbles in Mlima and Luhyaland you are into injury time.
Worse if Raila drop dead and Luo civil war start -- it might be a NARC rout.
How will he handle defeat?
Ruto is already carting loot all over - Mbeere, Malava, SH fiestas - expect this to pick up in steroids.
Also don't underestimate his disposition to deploy Moi-type violence. That pending ICC case should be a good check.
DPORK will be GEMA.
Eugene will be senate speaker.
Martha Karua National assembly speaker.
Natembeya will be prime cabinet secretary.
Malala is headed for great things.His only problem is alcohol and sex with too many bitches.
Matiangi is the FOOL.He should form his own party.Unite Omogusii and become CS for Education and Interior.H
Another stupid IDIOt which belongs to hell is Ndindi,He should join DCP and become next CS for finance.
Ruto is not going to win anywhere in thos by-elections.He knows that.It will be UDA funeral.
Riggy/GEMA will get PM. DPORK is Luhya. We shall see.
You need to get Riggy has iron grip. It was a big blunder to trade Riggy for Kindiki. Merus, Embus align strongly with Nyeri since Kibaki. Before you factor Riggy himself is half-Meru. The small friction is Murang'a and Kiambu. If Ruto had gone for Ndindi he stood a better chance but too late now.
I saw them holding placards in Kerugoya ati Riggy has insulted Kirinyaga :) - like it matters.
NDINDI is exposed already as Ruto project with Kuria, Kiunjuri -- they will be dispensed like bad food with Kindiki. They are no match for foxy Riggy who smoked them from a mile away. These people have actually pocketed billions from Ruto so don't bother calling them names. Tumbocracy is not new. Why should Ndindi pass up serious chance to be young and rich? I actually expect him to align his briefcase with DCP or run as independent but endorse Riggy for PORK.
My expectation is Ndindi will run as independent for governor against DCP Kang'ata.
I think you are wasting my time.
BOSS at least umeacha ujinga ya ati RiggyG should shun Kalonzo to run a one-man guitar with Methu and Gakuya. :)
We can never say Kalonzo Tosha until January 2027 but there is already a deal that he will be the candidate.
If RiggyG is barred,The only person in that coalition who can be deputy president is Methu who is the future GEMA leader.Wake up.We cannot make Muturi or Martha deputy president.They are unpredictable opportunits.Martha is even better,she held Rigathi in her soft arms like a mother when he was impeached and told him,kababa cool down am here for you.Where was Muturi during Gachagua impeachment?Where was that Goddam creature?After elections the best he should become is Chairman of presidential retirement benefits authority.
In Nairobi,Jaluo babu and Sakaja have to battle it out for luhya luo vote,Gakuya must be given the ticket.
We cannot sacrifice another GEMA like we did with sonko in 2017 and sakaja in 2022.
Any attempt by Wiper to give Babu patel Gubernatorial ticket is the end of our partnership.We give them the presidency,They rudisha mkono with the governor.
GEMA gains nothing from Babu owino,ANY WIPER OR DCP candidate who will endorse KONDELE YOUTH WINGER PATEL Babu owino in any meeting will be beaten like a DOG you being one of them.
Where was Babu owino when Gachagua was being impeached?
MODESTY BLAISE YOU DESERVE DEATH.Babu Owino called our GEMA leader uhuru mtoto wa umbwa,hid himself during riggy impeachment,shot dj evolve.How do you make the guy incharge of city hall billions,Are you stupid?
BLADdy FAkin.
BOSS at least umeacha ujinga ya ati RiggyG should shun Kalonzo to run a one-man guitar with Methu and Gakuya. :)
We can never say Kalonzo Tosha until January 2027 but there is already a deal that he will be the candidate.
If RiggyG is barred,The only person in that coalition who can be deputy president is Methu who is the future GEMA leader.Wake up.We cannot make Muturi or Martha deputy president.They are unpredictable opportunits.Martha is even better,she held Rigathi in her soft arms like a mother when he was impeached and told him,kababa cool down am here for you.Where was Muturi during Gachagua impeachment?Where was that Goddam creature?After elections the best he should become is Chairman of presidential retirement benefits authority.
In Nairobi,Jaluo babu and Sakaja have to battle it out for luhya luo vote,Gakuya must be given the ticket.
We cannot sacrifice another GEMA like we did with sonko in 2017 and sakaja in 2022.
Any attempt by Wiper to give Babu patel Gubernatorial ticket is the end of our partnership.We give them the presidency,They rudisha mkono with the governor.
GEMA gains nothing from Babu owino,ANY WIPER OR DCP candidate who will endorse KONDELE YOUTH WINGER PATEL Babu owino in any meeting will be beaten like a DOG you being one of them.
Where was Babu owino when Gachagua was being impeached?
MODESTY BLAISE YOU DESERVE DEATH.Babu Owino called our GEMA leader uhuru mtoto wa umbwa,hid himself during riggy impeachment,shot dj evolve.How do you make the guy incharge of city hall billions,Are you stupid?
BLADdy FAkin.
Just call me Robina. Or Ngina. :)
Why do I deserve death? I am just analyzing siasa in Zamunda after shift. We are installing edge AI at an assembly line in Denver. This is just a good break.
You are overly bothered with details. Riggy is the DCP Leader - he will put the dots and crosses in the MOU. You don't see Kalenjin wailing why is Ruto doing xyz. DPORK is just a title now who can be fired. GoK is big. What Gema needs is big united party to minimize betrayal.
How I read Riggy - he is not handing over power to Methu or Muturi - he will handpick his crew himself. Muturi or Karua can be AG or speaker but the bulk of appointees will be DCP people appointed directly by RiggyG.
NAIROBI governor is details. There will be zoning. Governor goes to DCP Gakuya with Kamba runningmate. Senator and women rep will also be shared. With Natembeya/Luhya alliance if Sifuna accepts he can even be senator under DCP. Accept politics is fluid. If you are so obstinate utaachwa na ulcers. Don't be surprised to find Sifuna has a deal with Riggy to wreck ODM from within. He knows Baba is dead and ODM will implode. He must think about his future.
Even Nairobi MPs will be zoned with bulk going to DCP and a few Wiper. If Raila dies Babu Owino could decamp to Kisumu. Don't over-invest in politicians.
I think you are wasting my time.
Well you insisted no Kalonzo but you have now accepted the reality.
Using violence in 2027 will be difficult.
I think you understand that over the 200,000 people who work in Kenya police army and NIS are not from one tribe.Its a constitution of tribes and no officer wants to be involved in political affairs.They refused to obey Uhuru orders in 2022.In 2024-25,Ruto had to sign up opposition leaders from other tribes because guns werent working.
In 2027,If luhya Kisii Gema and Mt kenya will be Zoned as Kalonzo zones,How will the government use goons or violence?
The same way Moi surrendered in 2002,ruto will surrender in 2027.
They tried to stop Gachagua after impeachment they couldnt,How will they stop him in 2027?
If you look at the analysis,I have given Ruto 100% in N Eastern Somalia,100% Jaluo 100% Rift Valley and ITS NOT MATHING.
RUTO IS ONE TERM.THE MATH DOESN"T ADD UP.
I have nothing absolutely against him.
Gachagua as the GEMA leader needs more than 10 governors for two purposes:
(1) To fund him with not less than 10MN in a day.
(2) The governors to provide and fund his grassroot networks while protecting him in his nationwide activities.
Right now you have Waiguru Karinda Meru Gov Tharaka Gov Kangata Matangi spending millions to destroy RiggyG.
Do you get it?
Add the Mps using CDF to fight him?
GEMA needs a party,Mps,Mcas and Govs who are loyal.
Gachagua as the GEMA leader needs more than 10 governors for two purposes:
(1) To fund him with not less than 10MN in a day.
(2) The governors to provide and fund his grassroot networks while protecting him in his nationwide activities.
Right now you have Waiguru Karinda Meru Gov Tharaka Gov Kangata Matangi spending millions to destroy RiggyG.
Do you get it?
Add the Mps using CDF to fight him?
GEMA needs a party,Mps,Mcas and Govs who are loyal.
Yes. But where has Riggy failed in all this? I see him selling DCP in Narok - leveraging Gema diaspora to expand his reach. That is how you get votes for the party. Not obsessing with a tiny toilet fly like Babu Owino. Hio ni mambo ya March 2027.
If people see DCP is popular in Maa- street creds - they will flock to it.
Riggy's strategy and action will nail him 15 governors. 5 outside Gema. Donge?
What data on that information are your arguing with?What do you have contrary.This is public information.
Raila alive or dead.I have given Ruto
100% JALUO
100% RIFT VALLEY
100% SOMALI
50 % kisii and luhya
RIGGING
Which is NOT POSSIBLE IN REALITY.
HE CAN'T win.
You are a statistician.You know that.No wonder Sudi is talking about rigging.
In the worst case scenario Natembeya and Matiangi join Kalonzo camp,I doubt Ruto will cross past 35%.He will be massacred at the ballot.
Close this thread n focus on important things.
Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.
Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.
Yes. Coast/Mijikenda/pastoralist are gone with Ruto. Gusii is gone with Matiang'i. Luhya is gone with DAP-K.
Luo will be big war.
Ruto gets the lion share but it might be a posioned chalice as Luo will demand DPORK or else.
Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.
Yes. Coast/Mijikenda/pastoralist are gone with Ruto. Gusii is gone with Matiang'i. Luhya is gone with DAP-K.
Luo will be big war.
Ruto gets the lion share but it might be a posioned chalice as Luo will demand DPORK or else.
Something to note.
In 2007,Kibaki got 34% while Kalonzo got 7%
Gachagua and Kalonzo will be starting at the coast with 40% when we factor Kamba and GEMA diaspora.With Raila out of the picture,We still don't know 100% how the Mijikenda Arabs + Luo Luhya diaspora at the coast will vote.But with Raila out of the picture,A divided Mijikenda vote GEMA kamba union and Luo Luhya divided vote KALONZO TRANSCENDS BEYOND 50% at the coast.
Statistically,Kalonzo gets coast at 55%.
There will be no enthusiasm for Luos to vote for Ruto.In western,If Natembeya and Wamalwa stick with Kalonzo,Its massacre for Ruto.
Ruto is now MORE EXPOSED AND WORRIED.
When he learnt that Raila couldn't make it a few weeks ago,He became so emotional and met Gideon.He doesn't work well under pressure.We saw it even during GENz protests.
Ruto is DONE 100%.
When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:
Kalonzo vs Ruto
Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda
After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda
Why would Luhya vote for Wamunyoro project? Or anyone else in Kenya?
Kalonzo votes : Kikuyus+Kambas.
Elsewhere Gachagua and Mt kenya will rebel the rest to Ruto.
Simple- He will get 5% elsewhere.
Ruto 65-70%: Kalonzo 30-35%
Before DEATH - Ruto was competing with Raila for same pool of Non-GEMA or Mt Kenya votes.
After DEATH - Ruto is unchallenged leader of Anti-/Non-GEMA
SIMPLEWhen the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:
Kalonzo vs Ruto
Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda
After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda
Malava will soon tell us about Luhya. I see UDA already threatening to evict Khalwale for backing Panyako. Obviously the ground is hot.
There is a few MCA up for grabs in Nyamira too - UDA vs Nyaribo UPA.
About Ruto everywhere -- even the scatterbrained Githunguri you suddenly love has some rough numbers. Oburu cannot deliver what Raila could not.
Panyanko is not running on DCP.
DCP have their candidate.
As far as I know DAP - Wamalwa thing is Uhuru thing.
Wamalwa will go where Uhuru goes.
Khawale knows ODM and UDA will agree for current governor to continue.
So he is definitely thinking DAP.
DAP is going to be party for those who will not want to be part of ODM-UDA coalition.
And will eventually align where Wamalwa-Natembeya want - Uhuru-matiangi-Jubilee.
DCP Busiega is Malala hardheadedness which will embarass him by being mkia. It is no threat to DAP or would be shelved by RiggyG.
Uhuru needs to try something in Mbeere or Murang'a before we take him seriously. Has Ndindi or anyone serious joined Jubilee? :o It is pure conjecture and illogical that he controls DAP. Kalonzo and Natembeya/Eugene will not give up D/PORK for a few billions or CS - plain logic. Self interest - the core of politics - defeats your argument.
Khalwale is minding his interest. Even Matiang'i will follow his own interest.
Obviously once Natembeya is DPORK candidate for the united opposition - buying Eugene or any Luhya even for 2bob will be waste of money.
STRONGHOLDS IN PERCENTAGES:
KALONZO
TAITA TAVETA
ISIOLO
MERU
THARAKA - NITHI
EMBU
KITUI
MACHAKOS
MAKUENI
NYANDARUA
NYERI
KIRINYAGA
MURANG'A
LAIKIPIA
NAKURU
KAJIADO
KIAMBU
37%
RUTO
TURKANA
WEST POKOT
TRANS NZOIA
UASIN GISHU
ELGEYO/MARAKWET
NANDI
BARINGO
KERICHO
BOMET
NAROK
GARISSA
WAJIR
MANDERA
MARSABIT
BUSIA
SIAYA
KISUMU
HOMA BAY
MIGORI
31%
50:50 SWING
KAKAMEGA
VIHIGA
BUNGOMA
NYAMIRA
KISII
12%
Kalonzo 37% + 6%=43%
Ruto 31% +6 %=37%
Kalonzo leaning SWING VOTES
MOMBASA
LAMU
KWALE
KILIFI
SAMBURU
TANA RIVER
NAIROBI CITY
19%
Kalonzo 43% + 10% = 51%
Ruto 37% + 9%=45%
The result will be most likely
Kalonzo +51% Vs Ruto +-45%
Ruto already know this,How will he stop it from happening because there is ABSOLUTELY NO PATHWAY TO RE-ELECTION.
I have given him 100% Turkana,Pokot,Jaluo,rigging and even somali which is IMPOSSIBLE even if he stuffs ballots,We even dont know how Jaluo turnout will be because there have no enthusiasim of being in the ballot.I doubt he will cross past 40% vote.
How will he handle defeat?
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>IMO, Nairobi-Mau Summit highway will take at least 5 years to complete. I estimate the earliest competion date at 2030 unless the following are adressed:
— Cerebral Assassin (@xysist) November 26, 2025
1. Detailed Engineering design for the entire corridor including drainage, slope protection , tunnels, and any bridges.
Ruto cant lose - here - I have been very generous
Kenya should not waste money; they should just crown Ruto, and let's roll to 2032. The man is unbeatable. Only late 'baba' could have come close!
(https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/598842326_1385711180014271_3424936708355726415_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=H086h-uHPA4Q7kNvwH9xbwE&_nc_oc=AdnJbBRqKyY3tK5h74O2oK4sSxKKmGxsXhEQiMijxDvnHmosl7WZzb5sbTN1Zd6PiPY&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-yyz1-1.xx&_nc_gid=Keoo8l08Ticg6ZT2YvgPVQ&oh=00_Afm7VP0zOVQJ-cgSysMBc4tQMPywNM4eMEe8AJFSGEMsEw&oe=69413992)
1) Uhuru Kalonzo meet in Nigeria.They need money,goons,international bullies and criminals in preparation to 2027 election.Its going to be brutal.
2) Luhya will 60% + vote for Kalonzo.We saw it from byelection and jirongo funeral.
Lots of gold and oil money from Tsishekedi Nigeria and South africa will go to Kalozno.
They key thing now is how to deal with the goons to bribe goons blackmail goons to go after goons to destroy the goons to create an oligopoly of goons with protection of state goons within the state to create confusion within the state and cause instability UNITIL THE GOONS are not reliable and the rule of law prevails.
Malava showed us its 5050 in western.
You need money,International criminals and goons to win.
The likes of Tsishekedi Ramaphosa sudan generals want Ruto out im 2027.
Malava showed us its 5050 in western.
You need money,International criminals and goons to win.
The likes of Tsishekedi Ramaphosa sudan generals want Ruto out im 2027.
Luhya is more like opposition 60 v 40 Ruto going by Khwisero and Kabuchai.
Will soft Kalonzo and fat Matiang'i manage that hard politics? Remember it's not RiggyG running.
Luhya is more like opposition 60 v 40 Ruto going by Khwisero and Kabuchai.
Will soft Kalonzo and fat Matiang'i manage that hard politics? Remember it's not RiggyG running.
Khawale and most of western political players will negotiate to stay within UDA-ODM-Ford-K coalition. Dont bet on them. Not when opposition is Gachagua led. Unless they put Natembeya as Deputy President.Luhya is more like opposition 60 v 40 Ruto going by Khwisero and Kabuchai.
Will soft Kalonzo and fat Matiang'i manage that hard politics? Remember it's not RiggyG running.
Khawale and most of western political players will negotiate to stay within UDA-ODM-Ford-K coalition. Dont bet on them. Not when opposition is Gachagua led. Unless they put Natembeya as Deputy President.Luhya is more like opposition 60 v 40 Ruto going by Khwisero and Kabuchai.
Will soft Kalonzo and fat Matiang'i manage that hard politics? Remember it's not RiggyG running.
Kalonzo "opposition to declare their cabdidate by march this year"
Gachagua" opposition will declare their candidate a few months to elections"
Clowns tupu, even if you hate Ruto utakubali he has no serious competition.
Once they declare its Kalonzo or Matiangi,
Uhuru first order of business will be to destroy Gachagua and make him irrelevant.Kalonzo will also undermine him.
Gachagua should refuse and blackmail them that he can support Ruto until March 2027.He should withdraw his iĺlegitimate candidacy around march or april 2027 based on the legal deadline.
Anything else and these guys will destroy him.
It doesn’t matter what Gachagua says, he is the truthful man and has a degree in political science unlike the botanist who is now playing from behind. Gachagua took the North Eastern issue head on, they thought it was a mistake, he is now popular than ever and is poised to make either Kalonzo or Matiangi the next president.
Ruto cant lose - here - I have been very generous
8) feel free to update us.
Seems its Kalonzo-Natembeya ticket.Moi beat that alliance very easy. Ruto is unbeatable because he has sizable portion of his Kamba-Luhya-Gema-Kisii alliance. Bukusu under Wetangula and Barasa alone is 45% of Luhya. 50% of Maragoli's are in Mudavadi pocket. The rest are in Oparanya and the group. Count almost 50% of Luhyas in Ruto camp, at worse 30%. Without President and Deputy, count Kikuyus up to 30-40% in Ruto's camp. Luis even if they go 50/50 still Ruto wins all day. Kales, Somalis, Coast, Turkanas, Maasai and all in between will power Ruto the same way they did Moi in 1992 and 1997. It is simply very had to defeat a kalenjin in Kenyan politics because automatically the pastoralists come together like it it is a feast! Ruto will have to lose 75% of Luhya, 85% of Kikuyu and 60% of Luo to come close to losing. GEMA east of Merus, Tharakas, Embus, etc are looking at Kindiki and will not joke around with 2032 and beyond, so they will vote away from mainstream Kikuyus very hard. Another thing, IEBC, and Kenya's Supreme Court are working around the clock to ensure Ruto wins by the biggest margin possible! If Ruto get 30% Kikuyu and 35% Luhya, it is a wrap early in the morning!
Matiangi should be prime cabinet secretary.
Kamba-Luhya-GEMA-Kisii alliance.
Ruto has panicked.He went back to campaign after flying for more than 48 hours.He was in Marsabit then kakamega.Its too tough on the body.
He will be massacred at the ballot.
Moi beat that alliance very easy. Ruto is unbeatable because he has sizable portion of his Kamba-Luhya-Gema-Kisii alliance. Bukusu under Wetangula and Barasa alone is 45% of Luhya. 50% of Maragoli's are in Mudavadi pocket. The rest are in Oparanya and the group. Count almost 50% of Luhyas in Ruto camp, at worse 30%. Without President and Deputy, count Kikuyus up to 30-40% in Ruto's camp. Luis even if they go 50/50 still Ruto wins all day. Kales, Somalis, Coast, Turkanas, Maasai and all in between will power Ruto the same way they did Moi in 1992 and 1997. It is simply very had to defeat a kalenjin in Kenyan politics because automatically the pastoralists come together like it it is a feast! Ruto will have to lose 75% of Luhya, 85% of Kikuyu and 60% of Luo to come close to losing. GEMA east of Merus, Tharakas, Embus, etc are looking at Kindiki and will not joke around with 2032 and beyond, so they will vote away from mainstream Kikuyus very hard. Another thing, IEBC, and Kenya's Supreme Court are working around the clock to ensure Ruto wins by the biggest margin possible! If Ruto get 30% Kikuyu and 35% Luhya, it is a wrap early in the morning!
Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.
Ruto has taken Moi constituencies which Raila had stolen. His base outside Kalenjin is the vast ASAL region - 75% land with 15% of the votes.
Why is Ruto in trouble, remain simple: RiggyG. Hell hath no fury.
RiggyG is in Kakamega now - he is able to charm everyone with ''hi cousins'' -- while spew venom about Ruto.
2027 is likely Ruto vs Kalonzo on paper, but Ruto vs RiggyG in reality.Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.
Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.Moi beat that alliance very easy. Ruto is unbeatable because he has sizable portion of his Kamba-Luhya-Gema-Kisii alliance. Bukusu under Wetangula and Barasa alone is 45% of Luhya. 50% of Maragoli's are in Mudavadi pocket. The rest are in Oparanya and the group. Count almost 50% of Luhyas in Ruto camp, at worse 30%. Without President and Deputy, count Kikuyus up to 30-40% in Ruto's camp. Luis even if they go 50/50 still Ruto wins all day. Kales, Somalis, Coast, Turkanas, Maasai and all in between will power Ruto the same way they did Moi in 1992 and 1997. It is simply very had to defeat a kalenjin in Kenyan politics because automatically the pastoralists come together like it it is a feast! Ruto will have to lose 75% of Luhya, 85% of Kikuyu and 60% of Luo to come close to losing. GEMA east of Merus, Tharakas, Embus, etc are looking at Kindiki and will not joke around with 2032 and beyond, so they will vote away from mainstream Kikuyus very hard. Another thing, IEBC, and Kenya's Supreme Court are working around the clock to ensure Ruto wins by the biggest margin possible! If Ruto get 30% Kikuyu and 35% Luhya, it is a wrap early in the morning!
Ruto has taken Moi constituencies which Raila had stolen. His base outside Kalenjin is the vast ASAL region - 75% land with 15% of the votes.
Why is Ruto in trouble, remain simple: RiggyG. Hell hath no fury.
RiggyG is in Kakamega now - he is able to charm everyone with ''hi cousins'' -- while spew venom about Ruto.
2027 is likely Ruto vs Kalonzo on paper, but Ruto vs RiggyG in reality.Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.
Ruto lost 20% of his 50%;
Winning Luos cut deficit to 10%;
Winning Coastal, NEP & Matusa 10%;
We dont even need one extra luhya than 2022;
RiggyG, the poisoned chalice is easiest to fight, for same reason he was impeached. Any ticket he support will be seen as Kikuyu share thing.Ruto has taken Moi constituencies which Raila had stolen. His base outside Kalenjin is the vast ASAL region - 75% land with 15% of the votes.
Why is Ruto in trouble, remain simple: RiggyG. Hell hath no fury.
RiggyG is in Kakamega now - he is able to charm everyone with ''hi cousins'' -- while spew venom about Ruto.
2027 is likely Ruto vs Kalonzo on paper, but Ruto vs RiggyG in reality.Ruto cant lose even if he tried.
For obvious reason he got 20% of his 50% from GEMA.
However he did very badly in areas he expected to do well.
Luhya he lost everywhere except Bungoma..overally he did 35%.
He did 35% of Gusii
He did 2% of Luos;
He did 80% of GEMA
He did 25% of Coast.
He did 40% of NEP
He did 50% of MATUSA including 65% of Pokots.
Reason he was facing a very strong national leader in Raila backed by the state.
Sasa kalonzo ni joke.
Ruto is not Raila and wont win Luo Coast NEP and Matusa…..
These percentages convert them to numbers and you will see the reality…..
GEMA in Coast Rift Valley and Nairobi who voted for Ruto you will realise that the 49% who voted for him goes to around 60%
We have the Data …….
I would like to see this Nowayhaha math. Seems Ruto has only Kalenjin. 🤔🥲
You have data but cant share the data.
GEMA pop of 2022 was about 11M -8m kikuyus, 2m merus, Embu and others 1m.
GEMA adults are about 55-60% roughly 6.5m
GEMA adults with IDs and registerd as voted drop to about 5.8m.
GEMA who turned to vote were about 70%.
GEMA yote was around 4m cast vote.
Roughly 3m for Ruto. 1m for Raila.
That was about 40% of Ruto total votes or 20% of national vote.
If all is gone - if Kindiki is replaced - then Ruto has 20% deficit to fill.
Small thing when you have ODM with you and without Raila.
You are frustrated because ODM-KK alliance will simply steamroll you.
NEP, COAST, MATUSA, LUO and LUHYA are majority with RUTORuto is not Raila and wont win Luo Coast NEP and Matusa…..
These percentages convert them to numbers and you will see the reality…..
GEMA in Coast Rift Valley and Nairobi who voted for Ruto you will realise that the 49% who voted for him goes to around 60%
We have the Data …….
Robina , Ruto won with 49% GEMA inland and 11% GEMA diaspora ( Nairobi/Coast/Rift Valley) , He got 40 % from the rest of the country including Kalenjin.
Thats why RV pundit has becoming like you hoping like you did Ruto to inherit Raila vote like you hoped Raila will inherit Uhuru vote in 2022 which didnt happen and wont happen for Ruto in 2027.
Simply Post 2003 Raila voters knows Ruto as a Villain .I would like to see this Nowayhaha math. Seems Ruto has only Kalenjin. 🤔🥲
Continue dreaming , post 2002 Raila voters can not elect Ruto and reason Raila lost huge support after broadbased Govt and reason Sifuna has risen simply if Sifuna is bought by Ruto today they will identify with another leader . Now you can continue self deceiting but it wont change anything . I supported Ruto and Im aware he made mistakes just like Moi did in 2002 such mistakes one can never recover….
SO GEMA 60% of Ruto's 50=30% of national vote
They still contributed almost 1million to Raila.
Making them 40% of kenya votes.
Dude - Mathare iko open - see a shrink mapema
Robina , Ruto won with 49% GEMA inland and 11% GEMA diaspora ( Nairobi/Coast/Rift Valley) , He got 40 % from the rest of the country including Kalenjin.
Thats why RV pundit has becoming like you hoping like you did Ruto to inherit Raila vote like you hoped Raila will inherit Uhuru vote in 2022 which didnt happen and wont happen for Ruto in 2027.
Simply Post 2003 Raila voters knows Ruto as a Villain .I would like to see this Nowayhaha math. Seems Ruto has only Kalenjin. 🤔🥲
Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi.
Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kaziContinue dreaming , post 2002 Raila voters can not elect Ruto and reason Raila lost huge support after broadbased Govt and reason Sifuna has risen simply if Sifuna is bought by Ruto today they will identify with another leader . Now you can continue self deceiting but it wont change anything . I supported Ruto and Im aware he made mistakes just like Moi did in 2002 such mistakes one can never recover….
Raila got 549,126 in GEMA counties bulk of it in Kiambu and half of the total were NON GEMAns
Here is the breakdown
Kiambu 210,393
Murang’a 73,539
Nyeri 52,043
Kirinyaga 37,978
Nyandarua 49,190
Embu 31,113
Meru 79,842
Tharaka Nithi 15,028
Total 549,126
So wacha uwongo wako .
Below is the break down of GEMA votes Ruto got albeit conservative .But gives you a fill remember other counties like Eldoret Machakos , Transzoia etc has GEMA voters .
GEMA is a major player in elections , even if you try to deny it .
Kiambu 606,085
Murang’a 343,481
Nyeri 272,507
Kirinyaga 220,752
Nyandarua 189,277
Embu 187,867
Meru 369,360
Tharaka Nithi 144,802
70% of Nairobi 393,051
70% of Nakuru 318,980
80% of Laikipia 95,190
60% of Narok 88,986
60% of Kajiado 89,069
60% of Mombasa 68,220
Total 3,387,627SO GEMA 60% of Ruto's 50=30% of national vote
They still contributed almost 1million to Raila.
Making them 40% of kenya votes.
Dude - Mathare iko open - see a shrink mapema
Robina , Ruto won with 49% GEMA inland and 11% GEMA diaspora ( Nairobi/Coast/Rift Valley) , He got 40 % from the rest of the country including Kalenjin.
Thats why RV pundit has becoming like you hoping like you did Ruto to inherit Raila vote like you hoped Raila will inherit Uhuru vote in 2022 which didnt happen and wont happen for Ruto in 2027.
Simply Post 2003 Raila voters knows Ruto as a Villain .I would like to see this Nowayhaha math. Seems Ruto has only Kalenjin. 🤔🥲
You have become like Robina Pre2022 oooh MPs support means you have traction . Come elections opposite hapoened
I will dig that thread
Robina please advice Pundit on the mistakes you did on 2022 elections predictions….
You have become like Robina Pre2022 oooh MPs support means you have traction . Come elections opposite hapoened
I will dig that thread
Robina please advice Pundit on the mistakes you did on 2022 elections predictions….Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi.
Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kaziContinue dreaming , post 2002 Raila voters can not elect Ruto and reason Raila lost huge support after broadbased Govt and reason Sifuna has risen simply if Sifuna is bought by Ruto today they will identify with another leader . Now you can continue self deceiting but it wont change anything . I supported Ruto and Im aware he made mistakes just like Moi did in 2002 such mistakes one can never recover….
Pundit claims Ruto beat opposition in Malava and Mbeere fair & square. TZ type election. That's how I know he can't be objective.
The tribal arithmetic is very slippery for Ruto. He can deploy KDF to rig - otherwise he will join the list of ''African Democrats'' of Goodluck Jonathan and Thabo Mbeki. 🙂
Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi. Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kazi
Why are you always mentioning Sifuna here if he is a political dwarf? Just ignore him the way you ignore Maraga.
As of the 95% ODM MPs supporting just wait for April 2027. Then you can count the MPs supporting Ruto. In the meantime they are busy eating in State House.Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi. Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kazi
Why are you always mentioning Sifuna here if he is a political dwarf? Just ignore him the way you ignore Maraga.
As of the 95% ODM MPs supporting just wait for April 2027. Then you can count the MPs supporting Ruto. In the meantime they are busy eating in State House.Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi. Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kazi
Well put, Kadudu. It has been irksome the constant mention of Sifuna as a non-entity. Watajuta sana...
To be certain, there is no 90% of ODM that Ruto has taken! At best, he has barely 20% of Baba's ODM.... the majority of ODM is with Sifuna & Co.
For the avoidance of doubt, @RVPundit & RVhh, you had better look elsewhere for the significant replacement of the departed Kikuyu votes; there is no Luhya-land for KK. Bukusu is 100% with Sifuna, with the rest of Luhyaland at 80% worst case.Why are you always mentioning Sifuna here if he is a political dwarf? Just ignore him the way you ignore Maraga.
As of the 95% ODM MPs supporting just wait for April 2027. Then you can count the MPs supporting Ruto. In the meantime they are busy eating in State House.Sifuna has risen where. How many MPS/MCAs/Senators/Governor of ODM support him. They are 5. Orengo, Babu, Sifuna, Amisi and Otosi. Tosha. Rest of ODM 95% support Ruto. I dont think Ruto in his wildest imagination would have imagine a more seamless smooth transfer of ODM base to KK. This pretty good deal
Sifuna like Maraga is Internet Bubble that will fizzle out. Kama hauna base from MCA hauna kazi
Malva and Mbeere - let say Luhya and Mt kenya east - is 50:50 - but you must admit UDA has won fair and square in KAMATUSA+ISIOLO+NEP+COAST sio?
If you do the maths; ODM Luo+ Ruto 40% small tribe coalition; tuko 50%.
Waluhya & Mt Kenya east - 7% +3% - we can go 50:50
And we will be 60%;
Coalition of Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii - at best iko 30%- add half Luhyas 7%; ingine 3% =40%.Pundit claims Ruto beat opposition in Malava and Mbeere fair & square. TZ type election. That's how I know he can't be objective.
The tribal arithmetic is very slippery for Ruto. He can deploy KDF to rig - otherwise he will join the list of ''African Democrats'' of Goodluck Jonathan and Thabo Mbeki. 🙂
Malava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 17%
Kamba 8%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 10%
Luo 3%
MKE 5%
Mijikenda 2%
Total 50%
It's a dead heat. Noone is ahead.Malva and Mbeere - let say Luhya and Mt kenya east - is 50:50 - but you must admit UDA has won fair and square in KAMATUSA+ISIOLO+NEP+COAST sio?
If you do the maths; ODM Luo+ Ruto 40% small tribe coalition; tuko 50%.
Waluhya & Mt Kenya east - 7% +3% - we can go 50:50
And we will be 60%;
Coalition of Kikuyus, Kambas and Gusii - at best iko 30%- add half Luhyas 7%; ingine 3% =40%.Pundit claims Ruto beat opposition in Malava and Mbeere fair & square. TZ type election. That's how I know he can't be objective.
The tribal arithmetic is very slippery for Ruto. He can deploy KDF to rig - otherwise he will join the list of ''African Democrats'' of Goodluck Jonathan and Thabo Mbeki. 🙂
Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
Malava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.QuoteMalava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
You realise even giving Ruto 100 % of Luo , North Eastern and Mijikenda . Still he cant beat the 50 %
The truth is that he wont even get a third of that vote .
Mathematically speaking there is no way Ruto is making it back.Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.QuoteMalava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.QuoteMalava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
If I give Ruto 100% Luo it is a tie 50-50.
If I add 100% Mijikenda Ruto wins by 52%
I think you are wrong asserting that Ruto cannot win.
In my eyes there are 2 big factors:
1. Opposition unity. If they break Ruto wins or run-off.
2. Iran war aka inflation. They have signed MOU but I see a high likelihood of round 3 showdown.
The rest of the game I think is largely settled.
You realise even giving Ruto 100 % of Luo , North Eastern and Mijikenda . Still he cant beat the 50 %
The truth is that he wont even get a third of that vote .
Mathematically speaking there is no way Ruto is making it back.Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.QuoteMalava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
United opposition ndio ngumu because we have really 2-3 big position.
Expecting Kikuyu, Luhya, Gusii and Kambas to be all happy when they will miss PORK or DPORK ndio ujinga.
Kikuyus maybe will be angry enough to forgo PORK and DPORK
But what will paper tiger Matiangi take to Gusii without PORK or DPORK - maybe PM?
What about Sifuna?
Yote tisa Ruto team is already at 50% plus one before opposition decide on a line up.
Ruto is aiming at 60% - by just getting more luhyas, gusii, kikuyus, kambas, mijikenda
If I give Ruto 100% Luo it is a tie 50-50.
If I add 100% Mijikenda Ruto wins by 52%
I think you are wrong asserting that Ruto cannot win.
In my eyes there are 2 big factors:
1. Opposition unity. If they break Ruto wins or run-off.
2. Iran war aka inflation. They have signed MOU but I see a high likelihood of round 3 showdown.
The rest of the game I think is largely settled.
You realise even giving Ruto 100 % of Luo , North Eastern and Mijikenda . Still he cant beat the 50 %
The truth is that he wont even get a third of that vote .
Mathematically speaking there is no way Ruto is making it back.Yaani hesabu yako umejaribu and you didnt get +1 :)
This fail.
Redo 50% plus one.
Anyway let give few months Sifuna and we review if he has some 3 mcas.
🙂 You can't stomach reality.
Here. In fact Kikuyus are 21% of the registered voters. I gave them 17%.QuoteMalava and Mbeere 50-50 is ukora of kidnapping the opponents. Remove the ukora - you have Kisa and Kabuchai 70-30. That's the correct data to use not your wishful thinking. With Sifuna GenZ excitement it will be worse than that for Ruto.
Mbeere same nonsense.
So Luhya upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Mt Kenya East upinzani 70-30 Ruto
Luo we can say upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Mijikenda upinzani 30-70 Ruto
Rest we can be simplistic with broad brush give Ruto 100% Kalenjin + pastoralists. United opposition 100% Kikuyu, Kamba, Gusii.
Opposition
Kikuyu 21%
Kamba 10%
Gusii 5%
Luhya 9% (70% of 13%)
Luo 3% (30% of 9%)
MKE 4% (70% of 6%)
Mijikenda 2% (30% of 5%)
Total 53%
Ruto
Kalenjin 11%
Pastoralists + small tribes 21%
Mijikenda 4% (70% of 5%)
MKE 2% (30% of 6%)
Luhya 4% (30% of 13%)
Luo 6% (70% of 9%)
Total 47%
Source: Google Gemini summary of tribes by registered voters
promptQuoteshow these tribes/groups by registered voters in kenya. use the labels:
kikuyu as kikuyu,
meru + embu + tharaka nithi as mke
kamba as kamba
gusii as gusii
luhya as luhya
luo as luo
mijikenda as mijikenda
kalenjin as kalenjin
all other tribes as 'pastoralists, etc'
OmtatahNowayhaha,
Can you refute my rough numbers there? Or RV Pundit's MOAS.
It's okay we will tolerate your broken English. 🙂
Bora numbers badala ya kelele.
Ati sisi tunajenga nchi,
Wewe walowa minofu na mvinyo;-- vizizi kibindoni.
You don't need to be a pundit to discern the lineup:
PORK Kalonzo
DPORK Matiang'i
PM RiggyG
Speakers, super-CS Eugene, other Luhya. Maybe Sifuna.
Babu will be unopposed for Nairobi governor as Wiper or whatever. Sifuna gets whatever position he chooses outside big 3. If Ruto vs Kalonzo are still neck&neck, Sifuna can hedge by senator unopposed.
Luhya will punch below their weight by having split loyalty as usual. Ruto keeps MaDVD as PM and Weta speaker. Contradiction it's Weta baiting Bukusu with 2032 🙂 -- his own grandkids don't buy that. Kwani how many people will Ruto endorse in 2032?
Weta, Mbadi, Kindiki, Joho 🤔🥲
Huo ndio ujinga.United opposition ndio ngumu because we have really 2-3 big position.
Expecting Kikuyu, Luhya, Gusii and Kambas to be all happy when they will miss PORK or DPORK ndio ujinga.
Kikuyus maybe will be angry enough to forgo PORK and DPORK
But what will paper tiger Matiangi take to Gusii without PORK or DPORK - maybe PM?
What about Sifuna?
Yote tisa Ruto team is already at 50% plus one before opposition decide on a line up.
Ruto is aiming at 60% - by just getting more luhyas, gusii, kikuyus, kambas, mijikenda
You are back to your Pre-2022 default settings of wishful thinking and self deceit .
This time around Pundit has joined your bandwagon .
Lets be candid with each other . Why Ruto created broadbased Govt was to survive till 2027 with expectation he would lure Raila to AU post and in return Raila give him support in 2027 . Unfortunately 3 things happened .
1. Raila lost AU
2. Raila passed on
3. Raila post 2022 base revolted.
You and Pundit automatically equates Raila passing to Ruto inheriting his base . Totally wrong calculations .
We live in Kenya and we hear what is on ground . Raila had 2 bases , the one which made him and the one he made .
The one which made him was pre-2002 less in numbers and consists of old people and majority has left . The one he made in post 2002
This one is multi ethnic and consists of younger generation . This is the one that revolted against Broadbased Govt and now supporting Sifuna . Simple because they dont want anything to do with Ruto from the word go . Coz they have seen him as a Villain in the most time of their existence.
It has been made worse by the fact that Raila is nolonger there to give them direction But you Robina and pundit think you can give them direction . Self DeceitOmtatahNowayhaha,
Can you refute my rough numbers there? Or RV Pundit's MOAS.
It's okay we will tolerate your broken English. 🙂
Bora numbers badala ya kelele.
Ati sisi tunajenga nchi,
Wewe walowa minofu na mvinyo;-- vizizi kibindoni.
Never forget tribe when discussing kenya politics.
Luos will vote one way - with Ruto unless something drastic happen.
Rest of small tribes from Mijikenda, Somalis, Iteso - name them - have seen a different Ruto - Ruto who is Raila heir in discrimination/bla bla.
Ruto messaging in 2027 is definitely along 41 v 1 - anti-kikuyu propaganda - clothed in nice words - except it it will sting and bite in many areas.
For now I advice you to watch the leaders - MCA to Governors - they listen to the ground.
As we approach 2027 - they will give you the proper signals. This is not 2023 - this 2026 mid - and listening to the ground is everything.
Kikuyu leadership will definitely abandon Ruto one by one - we are seeing it happen. The ground is too hostile for UDA/KK there.
Our opinion polling iko down.
You are back to your Pre-2022 default settings of wishful thinking and self deceit .
This time around Pundit has joined your bandwagon .
Lets be candid with each other . Why Ruto created broadbased Govt was to survive till 2027 with expectation he would lure Raila to AU post and in return Raila give him support in 2027 . Unfortunately 3 things happened .
1. Raila lost AU
2. Raila passed on
3. Raila post 2022 base revolted.
You and Pundit automatically equates Raila passing to Ruto inheriting his base . Totally wrong calculations .
We live in Kenya and we hear what is on ground . Raila had 2 bases , the one which made him and the one he made .
The one which made him was pre-2002 less in numbers and consists of old people and majority has left . The one he made in post 2002
This one is multi ethnic and consists of younger generation . This is the one that revolted against Broadbased Govt and now supporting Sifuna . Simple because they dont want anything to do with Ruto from the word go . Coz they have seen him as a Villain in the most time of their existence.
It has been made worse by the fact that Raila is nolonger there to give them direction But you Robina and pundit think you can give them direction . Self DeceitOmtatahNowayhaha,
Can you refute my rough numbers there? Or RV Pundit's MOAS.
It's okay we will tolerate your broken English. 🙂
Bora numbers badala ya kelele.
Ati sisi tunajenga nchi,
Wewe walowa minofu na mvinyo;-- vizizi kibindoni.
Raila supporters said the same in 2022 because Uhuru is with Raila GEMA will vote ror Raila , the opposite happened . In Kenyan politics remember previous alignments especially after 2010 constitution ……
Tell me why Didnt Raila defeat Ruto in GEMA 2022 when he had support of Uhuru their Kingpin based on 2013 /17 election results ?
I wrote about 2022 to death.
Uhuru is one lazy drunkard who did very little to really campaign for Raila.
Still Raila got 20% versus 80% of GEMA.
Uhuru never took Raila to central.
Best he did was to take select kikuyus to Sagana and tell them Ruto sio mzuri.
Uhuru needed to answer few serious questions in GEMA to win them over - one of most serious-
1) why Raila, why not Ruto, what has Ruto done, because Ruto stayed very humble - mumbling Ruto ni mbaya or mwizi - cant be answer when Raila ni mbaya murogi etc
2) the fate of GEMA diaspora in RV if they betray Kalenjin - given jubilee was peace pact btw kalenjin & kikuyu (btw for kikuyu diaspora - you see them reluctant to join DCP - all Nakuru Mps bar naivasha are in UDA - because again they fear what their fate will be if kalenjin attack them- so Gathietha need to face them and tell them itakuwa sawa or you will suffer)
He never had honest conversation with them
Now I see opposition depending on the same LAZY MLEVI nacheka yangu.Raila supporters said the same in 2022 because Uhuru is with Raila GEMA will vote ror Raila , the opposite happened . In Kenyan politics remember previous alignments especially after 2010 constitution ……
Tell me why Didnt Raila defeat Ruto in GEMA 2022 when he had support of Uhuru their Kingpin based on 2013 /17 election results ?
I was also here and wrote about it . We were on the same page , atleast then you were realistic now you are not .
Same notion as it were then GEMA base didnt shift to Raila with Uhurus support , Raila base wont shift to Ruto with Railas demise
Its shifter to Sifuna reason Raila spent 20 years fighting GEMA same here Ruto spent 20 years fighting Raila and you expect the base to support him…….Wishful thinking ………
Reality will hit you hard come next year August if Ruto survives till then and you will claim its a fluke……I wrote about 2022 to death.
Uhuru is one lazy drunkard who did very little to really campaign for Raila.
Still Raila got 20% versus 80% of GEMA.
Uhuru never took Raila to central.
Best he did was to take select kikuyus to Sagana and tell them Ruto sio mzuri.
Uhuru needed to answer few serious questions in GEMA to win them over - one of most serious-
1) why Raila, why not Ruto, what has Ruto done, because Ruto stayed very humble - mumbling Ruto ni mbaya or mwizi - cant be answer when Raila ni mbaya murogi etc
2) the fate of GEMA diaspora in RV if they betray Kalenjin - given jubilee was peace pact btw kalenjin & kikuyu (btw for kikuyu diaspora - you see them reluctant to join DCP - all Nakuru Mps bar naivasha are in UDA - because again they fear what their fate will be if kalenjin attack them- so Gathietha need to face them and tell them itakuwa sawa or you will suffer)
He never had honest conversation with them
Now I see opposition depending on the same LAZY MLEVI nacheka yangu.Raila supporters said the same in 2022 because Uhuru is with Raila GEMA will vote ror Raila , the opposite happened . In Kenyan politics remember previous alignments especially after 2010 constitution ……
Tell me why Didnt Raila defeat Ruto in GEMA 2022 when he had support of Uhuru their Kingpin based on 2013 /17 election results ?
It's beginning to look like Sifuna-Methu as you said.
Hmm nope. Looks like Sifuna is about to be another Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalwa. If he rounds Luhya wote including Busia, Vihiga and Moi's Bridge.
Then he becomes Kalonzo DPORK and they hang Ruto.
I believe that's the current plan but we'll see. Ol Kalou will tell us. Although personally I'd have preferred they do a joint United Opposition rally on July 14. Sifuna, Riggy, Kalonzo, Matiang'i, etc.
Broke people don't become Presidents in Kenya. Moi was Vice President, Minister, and wealthy Tycoon for years before he became President, Kibaki was Vice President and Minister for years with good chunks of money, Uhuru was super wealthy and Had Ruto's strategy and millions to be President. Ruto was deputy President with bottomless pockets for years before he became president. People like Methu and Sifuna will start their real game in 2037-2042. Kalonzo is not letting this time go. If Kalonzo is not torchbearer, every Kamba will vote Ruto to a man just to punish folk! If Kalonzo is the torchbearer, as always, he will lose elections by millions to WSRIt's beginning to look like Sifuna-Methu as you said.
Hmm nope. Looks like Sifuna is about to be another Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalwa. If he rounds Luhya wote including Busia, Vihiga and Moi's Bridge.
Then he becomes Kalonzo DPORK and they hang Ruto.
I believe that's the current plan but we'll see. Ol Kalou will tell us. Although personally I'd have preferred they do a joint United Opposition rally on July 14. Sifuna, Riggy, Kalonzo, Matiang'i, etc.
Sifuna is good. He seems like a guy who smokes bang and changaa like Methu. They can make a 20 year pact. Sifuna Kumi. Methu kumi.
Be they time methu is 45 in 2037,He will be polished and ready to be PORK.
Broke people don't become Presidents in Kenya. Moi was Vice President, Minister, and wealthy Tycoon for years before he became President, Kibaki was Vice President and Minister for years with good chunks of money, Uhuru was super wealthy and Had Ruto's strategy and millions to be President. Ruto was deputy President with bottomless pockets for years before he became president. People like Methu and Sifuna will start their real game in 2037-2042. Kalonzo is not letting this time go. If Kalonzo is not torchbearer, every Kamba will vote Ruto to a man just to punish folk! If Kalonzo is the torchbearer, as always, he will lose elections by millions to WSR
Broke people don't become Presidents in Kenya. Moi was Vice President, Minister, and wealthy Tycoon for years before he became President, Kibaki was Vice President and Minister for years with good chunks of money, Uhuru was super wealthy and Had Ruto's strategy and millions to be President. Ruto was deputy President with bottomless pockets for years before he became president. People like Methu and Sifuna will start their real game in 2037-2042. Kalonzo is not letting this time go. If Kalonzo is not torchbearer, every Kamba will vote Ruto to a man just to punish folk! If Kalonzo is the torchbearer, as always, he will lose elections by millions to WSR
Kalonzo already has the Opposition ticket. Sifuna will be DPORK. Both will bring a vast base -- Kalonzo is backed by RiggyG, Muturi - Sifuna must rally as many votes as possible from Raila base not just Luhya.
This is G7 - Sifuna is like Ruto in 2012 - trascending Luhya to other regions. Specifically they must both be acceptable in Mlima - Matiang'i is already acceptable. Kang'ata will introduce Sifuna in Ol Kalou.
Ruto knows Ol Kalou is do or die. He loses he will be marooned by the Sea of United Opposition. It's 1992 for Ruto and Kalenjin
In 1992 Moi won big, and Moi was 1000 steps behind Ruto in strategy and campign-crowd funding. You keep Kalonzo-Sifuna, GEMA will be 50/50 overnight because they are looking to take back power in 2032 through Kindiki. Kalonzo/Sifuna will keep them in the cold for another 20 years, so they will not accept that route. That is why wanjigi said if Kalonzo is on top of ticket, Ruto wins as soon as polls open. Sifuna-Martha will be stronger, however Kamba's will switch simcard to UDA in large numbers. Ol Kalau, like Mbeere will not be a do or die, UDA, even, with a loss will do better than expected. Anyway, like 2012, 2017, and 2022, we will be here to witness the streak!
DCP boss Rigathi Gachagua has launched a fresh campaign to position Nyandarua Senator John Methu as the preferred running mate for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the 2027 presidential race.
The push, according to multiple sources within DCP, comes amid growing anxiety within Gachagua's camp over internal opposition polls showing Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as the most preferred choice to deputize Kalonzo 2027 in a united opposition ticket.
Sources close to the DCP leader reveal that Gachagua has not forgiven Sifuna for voting in favor of his impeachment, a political humiliation that ended his tenure as Deputy President and barred him from holding any public office under the Kenyan Constitution.
Like his ongoing vendetta against President William Ruto, Gachagua is also targeting Sifuna with the same cold determination.
"He sees Sifuna as a traitor who celebrated his downfall. There's no way he'll allow him to rise to the Deputy Presidency without a fight," a source within the party tells Kenyan Report.
The impeached former DP has made it clear that he cannot hold office himself, so he will control who does, and Sifuna is not on that list.
Edwin Sifuna is the face of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a grassroots-driven political force that has been making inroads into Mt. Kenya, Gachagua's claimed stronghold.
''Rigathi Gachagua fears Sifuna represents an alternative center of power in the opposition, one that does not bow to his authority.''
Last month, the Linda Mwananchi group held a successful rally in Thika, Makongeni. Gachagua has since demanded that Linda Mwananchi seek his permission before holding any rallies in Mt. Kenya.
But Sifuna and his allies have defied the warning, and this weekend, Linda Mwananchi is headed to Ol Kalou, Nyandarua County.
Faced with Sifuna's rising influence, Gachagua has turned to Senator John Methu, a loyalist he recently elevated to DCP Secretary General. Methu, a relatively low-profile politician from Nyandarua, is now being positioned as the Mt. Kenya face in a Kalonzo-led opposition coalition.
Gachagua hopes to rally the Mt. Kenya vote behind DCP and behind Kalonzo, while simultaneously neutralizing Sifuna's momentum in the region using Senator John Methu.
But there's a problem. Methu lacks Sifuna's national appeal, media presence, and grassroots energy. While Sifuna commands attention across ethnic and regional lines, Methu is dull, uninformed and largely unknown outside Nyandarua. Polls reflect this reality, and Gachagua knows it.
Gachagua's impeachment has left him in a peculiar position where he is politically active but constitutionally barred from holding office.
He cannot run for President, Deputy President, Governor, Senator, or MP. His only option is to wield power from the shadows, using proxies like Methu to steer DCP and shape the opposition's direction./quote]
It looks like Demented Gachagua would prefer going back to Dr. Ruto camp than letting Sifuna get the DP slot.QuoteDCP boss Rigathi Gachagua has launched a fresh campaign to position Nyandarua Senator John Methu as the preferred running mate for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the 2027 presidential race.
The push, according to multiple sources within DCP, comes amid growing anxiety within Gachagua's camp over internal opposition polls showing Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as the most preferred choice to deputize Kalonzo 2027 in a united opposition ticket.
Sources close to the DCP leader reveal that Gachagua has not forgiven Sifuna for voting in favor of his impeachment, a political humiliation that ended his tenure as Deputy President and barred him from holding any public office under the Kenyan Constitution.
Like his ongoing vendetta against President William Ruto, Gachagua is also targeting Sifuna with the same cold determination.
"He sees Sifuna as a traitor who celebrated his downfall. There's no way he'll allow him to rise to the Deputy Presidency without a fight," a source within the party tells Kenyan Report.
The impeached former DP has made it clear that he cannot hold office himself, so he will control who does, and Sifuna is not on that list.
Edwin Sifuna is the face of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a grassroots-driven political force that has been making inroads into Mt. Kenya, Gachagua's claimed stronghold.
''Rigathi Gachagua fears Sifuna represents an alternative center of power in the opposition, one that does not bow to his authority.''
Last month, the Linda Mwananchi group held a successful rally in Thika, Makongeni. Gachagua has since demanded that Linda Mwananchi seek his permission before holding any rallies in Mt. Kenya.
But Sifuna and his allies have defied the warning, and this weekend, Linda Mwananchi is headed to Ol Kalou, Nyandarua County.
Faced with Sifuna's rising influence, Gachagua has turned to Senator John Methu, a loyalist he recently elevated to DCP Secretary General. Methu, a relatively low-profile politician from Nyandarua, is now being positioned as the Mt. Kenya face in a Kalonzo-led opposition coalition.
Gachagua hopes to rally the Mt. Kenya vote behind DCP and behind Kalonzo, while simultaneously neutralizing Sifuna's momentum in the region using Senator John Methu.
But there's a problem. Methu lacks Sifuna's national appeal, media presence, and grassroots energy. While Sifuna commands attention across ethnic and regional lines, Methu is dull, uninformed and largely unknown outside Nyandarua. Polls reflect this reality, and Gachagua knows it.
Gachagua's impeachment has left him in a peculiar position where he is politically active but constitutionally barred from holding office.
He cannot run for President, Deputy President, Governor, Senator, or MP. His only option is to wield power from the shadows, using proxies like Methu to steer DCP and shape the opposition's direction./quote]
It's beginning to look like Sifuna-Methu as you said.
Hmm nope. Looks like Sifuna is about to be another Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalwa. If he rounds Luhya wote including Busia, Vihiga and Moi's Bridge.
Then he becomes Kalonzo DPORK and they hang Ruto.
I believe that's the current plan but we'll see. Ol Kalou will tell us. Although personally I'd have preferred they do a joint United Opposition rally on July 14. Sifuna, Riggy, Kalonzo, Matiang'i, etc.
It's beginning to look like Sifuna-Methu as you said.
Hmm nope. Looks like Sifuna is about to be another Masinde Muliro or Kijana Wamalwa. If he rounds Luhya wote including Busia, Vihiga and Moi's Bridge.
Then he becomes Kalonzo DPORK and they hang Ruto.
I believe that's the current plan but we'll see. Ol Kalou will tell us. Although personally I'd have preferred they do a joint United Opposition rally on July 14. Sifuna, Riggy, Kalonzo, Matiang'i, etc.
Ol Kalau happened.Methu is the defacto Mt. Kenya leader.
Now we wait to crown Sifuna on July 26th in Bungoma.
LuhyaGEMA=50% +.